I hope Ukraine manages to keep up the exzra pressure by blowing up as much economically needed stuff as possible until putin gets kicked out of a window by his own people
I’ll believe it when I see it. I have been hearing this since 2022 and they’re unleashing more and more ballistic missiles on Kyiv every week
Russian economy getting destroyed and Russia killing civillians are 2 different things.
They can keep up the murder for long, but they can say goodbye to their war goals.
We’ve been hearing the same idiots saying “sanctions didn’t work immediately therefore they don’t work” since 2022. Those of us with higher than room temperature IQs realised that Russia planned for the war and sanctions to the tune of a $600 billion savings fund.
I still find it hilarious that Russia left about half of this in hostile countries that confiscated it immediately. Imagine Russia had that extra cash? They probably would have had a chance of winning this war without that blunder.
I never said that sanctions don’t work to hurt a country’s economy. That part is evident.
However, very few wars have been ended by sanctions alone. So in that sense, no, they do not work anywhere near as well as everyone thinks they do.
You would have a point if it was sanctions alone that Russia was facing.
It is fortunate in this case that Russia is also up against a well motivated Ukrainian army whose attacks have been increasing in sophistication as the war has progressed. Russia on the other hand has been on the back foot recently, they have appeared unable to adjust to Ukraine’s drone strikes on logistics behind the front lines and have had a net loss in square km gained the last 4 months in a row.
I wouldn’t say the Russian side is doing well, I completely agree with all of that.
But if someone has “hit their limits” like the article claims it means they can’t go on anymore. The fact that they can still ramp up attacks and aren’t losing ground massively means that hasn’t happened yet.
The war is at an impasse right now and I don’t think the next few months of the war are going to be very pretty…
Yeah, because things don’t happen immediately.
It was predicted for more than 2 years, and it’s happening now.
The Russian economy is collapsing, The Russian wealth fund is empty, and Russia has been selling gold reserves to prop up the economy, oil exports are dwindling, and they have to import refined oil products now at inflated prices.
The Russian infrastructure is collapsing too, and farmers can’t get the harvest done, because fuel is either not available or too expensive so it will cost more to harvest than to let the crops rot in the field.The fact that you are not seeing it, is not because it isn’t happening.
I have no idea why so many upvote you not knowing what’s going on.Our sanctions and the self-sanctioning by companies themselves are draining Russia’s economy and thus draining the Kremlin’s war machine.
Ursula von der Leyen, 2022
This sounds like more of the same.
Ursula von der Leyen, 2022
Are you somehow implying that she was wrong?
What she said would happen is exactly what happened.
What is the point of the sanctions?
The war hasn’t ended, has it?
What is the point of the sanctions?
Exactly what Von der Leyen said?
Weaken Russia’s economy.
That means less money for foreign supplies, and machinery, means fewer missiles, fewer shells, fewer tanks.
The war hasn’t ended, has it?
No, but maybe ask Ukrainians if they’d rather there be no sanctions and more missiles in their cities.
But you know all that, you’re just arguing in bad faith.
And why would they want to weaken the economy? Come on you can do better than that. Use your other brain cell.
And who said they shouldn’t do sanctions? Please quote me on that. And you have the nerve to tell me I’m the one arguing in bad faith? F off
And why would they want to weaken the economy? Come on you can do better than that. Use your other brain cell.
it’s literally in my comment above, read.
And who said they shouldn’t do sanctions? Please quote me on that.
Why the fuck should I quote you on that? I never said you said that.
What you did do is imply that it didn’t impact Russia’s war making capabilities, and I told you that you can go ask Ukrainians about that.
And you have the nerve to tell me I’m the one arguing in bad faith? F off
yes you are.
“Just asking questions” that you know the answers to. You fuck off
WTF? Sanctions have absolutely been part of reaching the point we’re at now.
Other comments by you have been misguided, but this is way way out there.Yeah no shit Sherlock. The point is that many people have claimed it was close for years and this is just more of the same.
There is nothing “misguided” about my comment. You’re entitled to your opinion and I’m entitled to mine. You don’t hold the truth.
Facts are not a matter of opinion.
What facts exactly?
How long do you think draining a country’s economy takes?
That is a pretty silly question to ask, since experts have failed to put a proper time frame on it and have made claims that have not come true. Every country and its circumstances are different so there is no telling.
And I said in my first comment I will believe it when I see it, so what makes you think I thought it would be fast?
All I’m saying is this messaging is not so different from Von der Leyen’s rhetoric in 2022.
It took 4 years for an impoverished Germany, and they were committed to all out war. So 4 years doesn’t sound silly.
Also this article is about it actually happening now, not a prediction
Germany burned itself with all kinds megalomaniac buildings, war machines and expansion on all fronts, and it took the might of the entire allied forces to bring them down.
There have been all kinds of signs and symptoms from day one and every time they said Russia was on their last legs. Russia’s economy going down the drain has been happening since the start of the war and the sanctions. The question is whether it will end the war, of which there are currently very few signs. And as I said the ballistic missile attacks are ramping up, so they still have ample production capabilities.
So in fact, nothing new is happening now and the war in Ukraine hasn’t ended.
It’s an enormous country with an abundance of natural resources. It was always going to take a fair amount of time before they got desperate. Now they are, and it’s not going well, hence the endless missile and drone barrage.
They lost their momentum on the ground a while back, and now they’re reduced to holding what they can and hope they can break the Ukrainian morale with civilian casualties. There’s nothing new there. They’re using the same tactics they used in Chechnya all over again. The only difference is the weaponry used.
You don’t have to tell me, tell everyone who made the claim
I live about an hour from the Russian border. I know people on the other side. I can read Russian well enough to follow their news since we’re probably fairly high up on the list of targets if this goes really wrong. Not that that would end well for Russia, but they’re not exactly behaving rationally atm.
I know what it really looks like inside Russia. Can you claim the same, or do you just like to spread misinformation?
What the F are you talking about you dumbass? I am AGREEING WITH YOU
You are, huh? Where?
You didn’t answer my question.
they’re unleashing more and more ballistic missiles on Kyiv every week
They don’t though. They’re still doing it, but they’re not doing it more, and that’s not for the lack of trying.
Maybe check your facts in the links I have provided to others already: https://www.csis.org/programs/futures-lab/projects/russian-firepower-strike-tracker-analyzing-missile-attacks-ukraine
There have definitely been much more ballistic missile attacks lately
You are seeing it, it is just very far away and doesn’t happen all at once. Just as an organism can have 100 things wrong with it, be terminally ill and refuse to die for decades, a country can be in a tailspin of decline for a long time.
Russia has dwindling international partners, ever-fewer customers for its resources, crippling domestic fuel shortages, and a devastated working-age male population. Just as its taking a decade or more to finish crashing, they’ll feel this for long after they stop doing the dumb things that have caused it.
I’m still seeing more and more ballistic missiles damaging Kyiv, still see Russia trying to capture cities and regions in the Donbas.
Yes, the economy is bad, but I don’t see the war ending soon because of it. People in rural Russia will just be worse off than they already are…
The war will probably not end until Russia has collapsed or Putin is removed.
Russia is absolutely collapsing now, but it takes time for the biggest country in the world and with 140 million people to collapse entirely.
How long we do not know, but despite Russia has attacked Kyiv heavily 2 times within a week, is not a sign in any way that they are winning or even standing their ground. Ukraine now has 3 times the attacks into Russia compared to what Russia is sending the other way.
And we are only 12 days into the 40 days and 40 nights campaign Zelenskyj announced! And the Flamingo missile is now evidently VERY real!
Oh look! The photon guy wants to see stuff. 😂
Part of the reason this happens is these changes take a lot longer than anyone would really like.
But, there are widespread fuel shortages in Russia, most of the country is facing some type of rationing, and that’s something that hasn’t happened before.
Man I dont know about the missiles. But yeah I feel we read this article every week. “Sanctions are about to grind russian economy to a halt”, “Russias oil industry about to implode”, “Russian war industry about to hit its limit”.
It just never really seems to do so.
I feel we read this article every week
No you haven’t, for 2-3 years it was predicted, difference now is that it’s actually happening.
Most of us thought Russia would collapse sooner, but now it’s actually here. The Russian economy and infrastructure is collapsing, with widespread fuel-shortages despite heavy rationing, and fuel so expensive farmers can’t afford to harvest.
The Russian federal economy is out of money, their wealth fund is used up, and they’ve sold gold reserves to get by beginning already months ago.“Russian war industry about to hit its limit”
Where did you see that claim? Seems a lot like a straw man to me, because everybody have said all the time that the Russian war industry will be the last to be affected by the economic collapse. Because it has the highest priority.
well they better get putins treasure trove he has stashed in european banks.
No you haven’t, for 2-3 years it was predicted, difference now is that it’s actually happening.
yes we have. lemmy was basically flooded with garbage tier articles for the past years not predicting it but claiming it as current fact.
They have been having widespread fuel shortages but yeah, they can keep limping along until they cannot I guess.
The media tend to oversensationalize things, the Russian oil industry imploding isn’t happening yet, but it has gone down to the point that nearly all of Russia is struggling to find enough fuel.
Killing off an economy takes forever, the effects of sanctions are slow, especially if an economy propped up by war time spending. But no amount of financial propping up can save an economy if its energy demands can’t be met. To be fair, Ukraine isn’t even close to disabling Russia’s energy infrastructure, they’re only seriously hitting one aspect of it.
It happens slowly, then all at once
Absolutely, Putin has used extreme measures of kicking the can down the road, so it has been happening more slowly than expected. But now Putin and Russia are out of tricks, and things seems to be accelerating a lot now.
Let’s hope it also stops the war, but I think it will just make things more awful for poor people in Siberia who are already living under shitty circumstances
Obviously this war is already making things more shitty for all Russians. 2 million people in Crimea in panic because it’s hard to get out without fuel. No electricity, no fuel, no Internet, and food is rationed.
The fuel shortage is now a problem for all regions of Russia, and fuel is rationed by federal decree.
Siberia has the advantage that Ukraine has very few drones with long enough range to hit them. But yes most of the eastern Russian federation depend on the west economically and probably also for food. But many Russians in those eastern parts have already moved back west, resulting in for instance mining cities that are empty. Some are populated with Chinese and North Korean workers, to continue mining, because the Russians are moving away.deleted by creator
The number of missiles and drones launched by Russia has been fairly steady since last year, sure there are some peaks here and there, but on average the numbers don’t go up, rather they’ve been going down slightly for the past few months. Ukraine’s countermeasures have become much more effective though with less than 10% of drones making it through.
I specifically said ballistic missile attacks, which have gone up drastically
From a previous comment, I understand that they are being forced to use the significantly more expensive ballistic missiles, which use up fuel they can’t afford to use, specifically because their drone success ratio is so far down lately.
All other military options they have are removed: artillery, infantry and armor get killed by drones. Russian drones get shot down before reaching target. They are hoping they can force a better settlement with the current terror bombings before they run out of fuel entirely
Let’s hope that’s the case, but they have surely been benefitting off the fact that Ukraine’s anti-missile defences are down
It’s not quite “more every week”; the numbers seem to be roughly stable since April. Of course it’s still a lot.
One question that occurs to me is whether they can actually sustain this. Missiles aren’t that cheap or fast to produce so it’s possible that they’re throwing out more than they can sustain in an attempt to wear down Ukraine at the last moment.
I’m not an expert on the weapon systems involved so maybe I’m way off base.
the numbers seem to be roughly stable since April.
The past week we’ve seen 2 massive attacks on Kyiv, the first was the biggest yet for the whole war, and the 2nd was almost as big.
But my guess is they were panic attacks by Putin, because he has nothing else he can do. And he wanted to retaliate for the attacks on refineries in Saint Petersburg and Moscow. That were both a very strong demonstration of power from Ukraine.
First half of your sentence yes, second half of your sentence no. There are ebbs and flows of numbers of missiles launched, but compared to earlier in the war I’m pretty sure Russia is launching significantly fewer now, especially if you consider the destructive power of each missile used
I doubt the Russian economy will collapse as long as China supports it. And China will keep supporting it, because there is much to gain for them.
Yes, the sick man of europe and asia won’t be going anywhere any time soon. Nobody wants to take over Russia, and Russia doesn’t have seccessationist movements. The only thing that will stop the war is Putin at this stage. Preferably in a casket.
Well the Russian economy is already collapsing, so where you get that idea from is kind of weird.
I’m not sure if we have the same idea when it comes to collapsing. In my mind it’s a bit more than a shrinking economy and inconveniences for some things in daily life. I would say that a collapsing economy results in instability on many levels, high rates of joblessness, countless companies going bankrupt, societal unrest, rapid price fluctuations of practically everything, etc. Some of those things are happening in Russia, but not nearly enough to call it a collapse imo.
I don’t really disagree with that, but much of that has actually been happening for some time. Many small companies have closed, but Putin has ordered banks to not declare companies bankrupt. which is why we haven’t seen the big bankruptcies yet, and we haven’t seen the unemployment yet. Regarding price fluctuations we have also already seen inflation increase despite high national bank interest rates that have helped keep it down. But it’s estimated prices in Russia have increased by about 50% since Russia started the war 4½ year ago. There is also not social unrest yet, but there is frequent fighting in the lines to get fuel.
So almost everything you expect to see is happening. And some of it has already happened for a while. A collapse is not a sudden thing, especially for a country as big as Russia.
It’s a gradual thing that happens over time, where things continue to get worse. And they’ve been getting worse in Russia for a couple of years, but now it’s beginning to accelerate really fast.
Putin and Russia have been very good at kicking the can down the road, but now it’s many cans, and the road is pretty steep now, so they can’t really kick them much further.
I bet the point where you would call it clearly a collapse too is very close. Many Russians are comparing conditions now with the collapse of the Soviet Union, and people are talking outright against Putin, despite you can go to prison for that, and going to prison can easily be a death sentence.Fair enough, perhaps I was wrong about thinking no collapse will happen soon. Time will tell. I suppose it could happen if the energy sector collapses, it will drag everything along with it, no help from China can stop that I think.
Yes absolutely, without energy everything collapses very quickly.
In Crimea they have extreme fuel shortage, and private people can’t buy fuel at all.
Most places are without electricity, and have maybe 1-2 hours electricity per day. The lack of electricity also has the result that they have no water, because there is no energy to pump the water.
Obviously you can’t store fresh food either, so everything that doesn’t have long shelf life rots in days.
And food in shops is rationed.In Crimea there is no doubt that basically everything has collapsed, but Crimea is just about 2 mil people, not a lot compared to the 140 million of all of Russia. But what has already happened to Crimea is happening even to Moscow now, but it takes more time, because what is happening in Moscow is a result of what is happening in Russia in general.
Ukraine claims they have taken out more than 40% of Russia’s oil refining capacity. And logistics/transports are already collapsing, when that collapses everything else will follow.
Every bit of support they give costs Russia something. Prestige, economic rights, even eventually land. In the end, they’re going to pay.
I mean China isn’t supporting the Russian economy per se; they’re just trading with them.
They are only supporting the military?
[Russians covertly trained by China return to fight in Ukraine, sources say
TIL, but also literally yes.
That is literally the economy.
True, but it’s not support. China’s posture towards the Ukraine war is much closer to neutral than pro-Russia. The top comment implies that China is somehow giving aid (or something analogous to aid) to Russia, but that’s just not happening; what China is doing regarding the Russian invasion the default and it’s what most of the rest of the world is doing: nothing.
Eh, I would argue that trade agreements and active orientation to Russia of certain business sectors counts as supporting, but I’m no economist, perhaps you’re right.
That might count as support, but do you have examples of this?
Good. now GTFO from Ukraine!
Some blog post from some “think tank”
This is a nothing burger
