This week’s summary of the situation is in spoiler tags below:
preamble
Diplomacy between Iran and the US has begun in… perhaps not earnest, but it’s certainly started. Iran’s very reasonable requirement that the Zionist occupation stop ethnically cleansing Lebanon and withdraw has caused a great deal of consternation throughout their population, and several analysts have suggested that Netanyahu being forced to accept Trump’s (and therefore Iran’s) demands spells the end of his leadership in the coming elections; then, the occupation is expected to “mellow out” and the conflicts and genocides slow and stop. This view is only really impactful if you believe that, rather than the US and Zionists being in a strongly mutually beneficial relationship based on geopolitical, financial, and clandestine goals, that instead Netanyahu is a devious mastermind bending any and all in the US to his whims. I don’t believe this; and, if anything, the events of at least the last three years prove that he’s really quite stupid, with “Israel” being in its worst position in decades under his rule.
Nonetheless, Iran has made the issue of Lebanon a not-quite-red-line (an orange line?). It hasn’t stopped them from going to Switzerland and beginning negotiations, but they still want to strongly express their discontent by harnessing the newfound superweapon that is Hormuz. Similarly, threats by Trump and others to restart the war if Iran doesn’t bend to their whims have been met with formal stoppages of negotiations, but it appears technical teams are still talking to each other and working things out. Trump’s threats are fairly idle at this point because most in the US military must know that there’s essentially zero effective military actions left to them with their current munition stockpiles.
Trump let slip that the US has about 3-4 weeks of oil reserves left, which aligns moderately well with the projections of analysts like Yves at Naked Capitalism (it’s now expected in late July rather than early July as was originally forecasted months ago). This means that even if the negotiation process goes off without a hitch, that there’s going to be a period of at least a few weeks where the US is out of reserves but is waiting for new shipments of oil to physically traverse the distance between Hormuz and the US continent. And many analysts have pointed out that it’s going to be a long time - at least a few months, and perhaps more like 9 to 12 - before Hormuz flows pick up to pre-war levels, due to logistics companies and insurance companies wanting to be sure that their property isn’t going to be blown up mid-transit. Regardless, the fact that the timetable is now so tight could indicate that the Trump admin has finally realized that it cannot outbluff and outwait Iran, and will give them a good deal out of necessity, even if this means forcing their unsinkable aircraft carrier to stop bombing children for five consecutive minutes.
However, there is a palpable anxiety throughout Iran right now, especially due to controversy over the degree to which Khamenei actually agreed with the current course of events. This does seem to be confirmed by his wording (to paraphrase): “In principle, I took a different view, but allowed the President to proceed.” Many inside Iran now have more fear that their politicians will not push hard enough for a good deal than that they’ll return to war, with all that may imply. This isn’t an unfounded fear, especially given how suddenly the 12 Day War ended despite Iran’s strengths being medium-and-long-term attrition (now confirmed by this latest war). This is one of those events that reveals how the Supreme Leader in fact doesn’t have complete dictatorial power unlike how he’s conceived of in much of the West, and that even during existential wars, major concessions have to be made to democratically elected leaders. Though, this could also be a clever move to shift blame explicitly onto the Reformist elements if the deal collapses.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Iran tied the football match at the same time as IRGC launched missiles at US bases. 💥💥💥
https://www.rt.com/africa/642134-burkina-faso-european-parliament-resolution/
Burkina Faso’s government says MEPs have no authority to impose the EU’s will or dictate how it manages its civic space and security matters
He said the ministry had summoned the EU envoy to make clear that Burkina Faso acts with “full sovereignty” over its domestic affairs, stressing that the European Parliament has no authority to impose its will or dictate how the country manages its civic space or security matters.
https://www.rt.com/africa/642252-burkina-faso-france-diplomatic-relations/
Burkina Faso has broken off ties with Paris, accusing it of interfering in its internal affairs
“Faced with these imperialist aims of domination over our country and the enslavement of our people, we have chosen responsibility and sovereignty,” the statement said. France has previously denied accusations that it supports terrorism in the Sahel.
Cabo Verde continues undefeated with a draw with the sauds and reaches the round of 32, while Uruguay is eliminated by
with 1-0
today morning Senegal killed Iraq 5-0 and Norway gave up vs France 1-4 since they only used their reserve players so no Erling Haaland which was very lame in my opinion
right now Belgium is winning 3-0 vs New zealand and Egypt and Iran are 1-1 draw both are at minute 72 so like 20-30 minutes left, if Iran gets a draw they may move up to the round of 16
They cancelled 2 iranian goals, boil all fifa referees
Venezuela shaken by magnitude 4.9 tremor days after major earthquakes - Al Jazeera
The South American country is still reeling from devastating pair of earthquakes that killed hundreds of people earlier this week.
Article
A new earthquake has been detected off the northern coast of Venezuela, registering as magnitude 4.9 on the Richter scale.
The tremor on Friday comes days after a pair of powerful earthquakes struck the country on Wednesday evening, killing at least 920 people and leaving parts of the capital of Caracas devastated.
The earthquake tracker organisation EMSC said in a social media post that the latest earthquake took place 61 kilometres (36 miles) northwest of Maracay in northern Venezuela.
Additional details are not yet known, but the news service Reuters reported that tremors from Friday’s earthquake were felt in Maracay and Caracas, citing local witnesses.
The South American nation is still reeling from the two earthquakes on Wednesday, one which registered 7.2 and the other 7.5 on the nine-point Richter scale.
The death toll is expected to climb, with the US Geological Survey estimating that the number of casualties could exceed 10,000.
At least 3,360 people have been reported injured, and more than 172 people remain trapped beneath the rubble. The number of missing has surpassed 50,000, according to the Venezuelan government.
On Friday, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello announced that there would be restricted access to some of the areas hardest hit by the earthquake in the state of La Guaira.
Residents have been organising to collect supplies and search for survivors. Some have even used their vehicles as improvised ambulances.
The Venezuelan government, meanwhile, has loosened restrictions on social media platforms like X, which were blocked in the wake of the disputed 2024 presidential election.
That, in turn, has allowed community members to share information about missing loved ones.
“It’s the community that has managed to get people out alive,” said 25-year-old Jennifer Palacios, whose six-year-old son is buried beneath the rubble along with five relatives. “We need them to bring cranes to move the slabs. There are still people trapped.”
A new earthquake hits Venezuela, shaking the cities of Caracas, Baruta, and Valencia. The tremor measured 4.7 on the Richter scale, a shallow wave, but it affected areas already damaged by previous tremors.
A few days ago Ansarallah announced a general mobilization in preparation for defending Yemen. Tribes are mobiling and accepting the call from Sayed Abdul-Malik al Houthi who announced that it was time to end the siege and reclaim Yemen from the invaders earlier last week.
Ansarallah media chairperson Nasruddin Amir made the announcement today that “the decision has been made today to end the status quo.”
This happens alongside massive violations of the MOU by the US-israel with ongoing zionist bombings in Lebanon and the US bombing Iran today. (IRGC statement here)
“What is coming is even greater.”
WTI Crude Futures have dropped below $70, the same price as seen on March 1st 2026. This indicates that nothing has happened, everyone is really really rational, and oil shipping is a secure as it has ever been!
Protests in Beirut, after Lebanon and Israel signed an agreement today to engage in direct and formal talks for the first time Most people in Lebanon, especially Shias, consider the Israeli-Lebanese agreement a betrayal and say it amounts to a normalization move. Among other things, the Israeli-Lebanese deal includes a plan to combat Hezbollah together.
Ravi Drucker, host of a popular program on Israel’s Channel 13: “The Israeli plan in Lebanon is to divide the country and plunge it into a civil war to force the Lebanese government into a military confrontation with Hezbullah!” Meanwhile, military correspondent Alon Ben-David confirmed that “this has been Israel’s objective from the beginning.”
Nobody wants a civil war. Nobody. But if the Lebanese state takes steps to raise arms and fight against fellow Lebanese instead of confronting Israeli occupation, they reap what they sow.
The Lebanese regime has started deploying the army against its own citizens
Hezbollah says it will confront any attempt by the Lebanese government to implement its treacherous agreement with Israel The group says it will not disarm nor withdraw from any areas under threat from the Lebanese Army. Hezbollah MP, Hassan Fadlallah, said enforcement of the deal is ‘impossible, unless they want a civil war’.
Rallies of Hezbollah supporters and opponents of the Lebanese-Israeli agreement continue in Beirut
- Middle East Spectator
PBS News, citing a US official, reports 6 U.S. military aircraft struck 4 Iranian targets, including radar installations and missile & drone storage facilities, in Sirik, Iran.
- Middle East Spectator
The Lebanese resistance has demanded a full Zionist retreat from Lebanon:
Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem says Israel will have to withdraw unconditionally from every inch of Lebanese territory, leaving “defeated and humiliated.”
“Israel has no option but to fully withdraw from our land,” he said, rejecting any arrangement that would allow an Israeli presence in Lebanon or lead to normalization between Beirut and Tel Aviv.
Removed by mod
🇮🇷🇺🇸| The IRGC issued a statement after US attacked Sirik, southern Iran:
Following the Zionist regime’s violation of the ceasefire in southern Lebanon, a few hours ago the treaty-breaking American regime also, as always, violated its commitments.
Under various pretexts related to the movement of a violating ship through an unauthorized route in the Strait of Hormoz, it launched an air attack on the coasts of Iran.
In response to this aggression, the IRGC-Navy struck the US Army positions in the region.
According to Clause 5 of the Islamabad MoU, the arrangements for controlling passage and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz are under the authority of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
However, America, by provoking various sides, sought to violate this commitment, and the necessary response was given. From now on, it will be the same. If the aggression is repeated, our response will be broader than this.
@FotrosResistancee
Emphasis my own.
Oman is considering charging Strait of Hormuz passage fees:
According to the agency, the Omani authorities have warned European officials that navigation in the strait will never be as it was before the war. They pledged to continue complying with international maritime law, but warned that they may charge fees for services related, in particular, to the escort of vessels and pollution response.
It is not yet clear whether this toll will be obligatory, Bloomberg noted, adding that European and Gulf countries are afraid that Oman and Iran may arrange a joint toll collection system for the passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
