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FuckyWucky [none/use name]

@ FuckyWucky @hexbear.net

Posts
90
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957
Joined
3 yr. ago

Pro-stealing art without attribution

  • Featured

    Bulletins and International News Discussion from February 16th to February 22nd, 2026 - The Neoliberal Fait Accompli of Muhammad Yunus - COTW: Bangladesh

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  • The U.S. was perfectly happy with Hasina for over a decade btw despite her repressive policies.

    Ultimately, it's good BNP got the majority (they've been trying to moderate their positions to get some AL voters) and Jamaat fascist collaborators got screwed.

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from February 9th to February 15th, 2026 - The Return of the Special Period - COTW: Cuba

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  • AI Bubble Fears Are Creating New Derivatives

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-14/ai-bubble-fears-are-creating-new-derivatives-credit-weekly

    Debt investors are worried that the biggest tech companies will keep borrowing until it hurts in the battle to develop the most powerful artificial intelligence.

    That fear is breathing new life into the market for credit derivatives, where banks, investors and others can protect themselves against borrowers larding on too much debt and becoming less able to pay their obligations. Credit derivatives tied to single companies didn’t exist on many high-grade Big Tech issuers a year ago, and are now some of the most actively traded US contracts in the market outside of the financial sector, according to Depository Trust & Clearing Corp.

    While contracts on Oracle Corp. have been active for months, in recent weeks, trading on Meta Platforms Inc., the parent of Facebook, and Alphabet Inc. has become much more active, the data shows. Contracts tied to about $895 million of Alphabet debt are outstanding, after netting out opposite trades, while around $687 million is tied to Meta debt.

    With artificial intelligence investments expected to cost more than $3 trillion, much of which will be funded with debt, hedging demand can only grow, according to investors. Some of the richest tech companies in the world are rapidly turning into some of the most indebted.

    “This hyperscaler thing is just so ginormous and there’s so much more to come that it really begs the question of ‘do you want to really be nakedly exposed here?’,” said Gregory Peters, co-chief investment officer at PGIM Fixed Income. Credit derivatives indexes, which offer broad default protection against a group of index members, aren’t enough, he said.

    Six dealers quoted Alphabet CDS at the end of 2025 compared with one last July, while the number of Amazon.com Inc. CDS dealers rose to five, from three, DTCC data show. Some providers even offer baskets of hyperscalers’ CDS, mirroring baskets of cash bonds that are rapidly being developed.

    Activity among hyperscalers really picked up in the fall when news around the debt requirements of these companies became front and center. A Wall Street dealer said his trading desk is able to regularly quote markets of $20 million to $50 million for a lot of these names, which didn’t even trade a year ago.

    For now, hyperscalers are having little trouble financing their plans in the debt market. Alphabet’s $32 billion debt sale in three currencies this week drew orders for many times more that amount within 24 hours. The technology company successfully sold 100-year bonds, an astonishing move in an industry where businesses can rapidly become obsolete.

    Morgan Stanley expects borrowing by the massive tech companies known as hyperscalers to reach $400 billion this year, up from $165 billion in 2025. Alphabet said its capital expenditures will reach as much as $185 billion this year to finance its AI build-out.

    That kind of exuberance is what has some investors worried. London hedge fund Altana Wealth last year bought protection against Oracle defaulting on its debt. The cost was about 50 basis points a year for five years, or $5000 a year to protect $1 million of exposure. The cost has since risen to around 160 basis points. Bank Users

    Banks that underwrite hyperscaler debt have been significant buyers of single-name CDS lately. Deals to develop data centers or other projects are so big and happening so fast underwriters are often looking to hedge their own balance sheets until they can distribute all of the loans tied to them.

    “Expected distribution periods of three months could grow to nine to 12 months,” said Matt McQueen, head of credit, securitized products and muni banking at Bank of America Corp., referring to loans on projects. “As a result, you’re likely to see banks hedge some of that distribution risk in the CDS market.”

    Wall Street dealers are rushing to meet the demand for protection.

    “Appetite for newer basket hedges can be expected to grow,” said Paul Mutter, formerly the head of US fixed income and global head of fixed income sales at Toronto-Dominion Bank. “More active trading of private credit will create additional demand for targeted hedges.”

    Some hedge funds see banks’ and investors’ demand for protection as an opportunity to profit. Andrew Weinberg, a portfolio manager at Saba Capital Management, described many CDS buyers as “captive flow” clients — bank lending desks or credit valuation adjustments teams for example.

    Leverage remains low at most of the big tech companies, while bond spreads are only slightly tighter than the corporate index average, which is why so many hedge funds, including his, are willing to sell protection, according to Weinberg.

    “If there’s a tail risk scenario, where will these credits go? In a lot of scenarios, the big companies with strong balance sheets and trillion dollar market caps will outperform the general credit backdrop,” he said.

    But for some traders, the frenzy of bond selling has all the hallmarks of complacency and mispriced risk.

    “The sheer amount of potential debt suggests that these companies’ credit risk profiles could come under some pressure,” said Rory Sandilands, a portfolio manager at Aegon Ltd., who says he has more CDS trades on his book than a year ago.

  • UK Poll: Hitler Party gets 60% of the seats

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  • FPTP is such shit.

  • Liberals try to understand economics without any Marxist analysis: Difficulty Level: IMPOSSIBLE

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  • All this is just capitalism, the capitalists only care about turning money into more money. They don't care how that money is coming from, asset price inflation, Government, credit whatever. One can call it a different variant, but its just capitalism at core.

    I mean, MIC has been a thing for decades, basically getting guaranteed transfers from the US Government. The banks were bailed out with $28T of Gov funds during GFC and Obamna did nothing to those responsible for it. The $28T didn't go into a void, it becomes hoards for the capitalists, which aren't taxed well or at all.

  • null has opinions on the champagne socialist Hasan Piker

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  • Hasan or whoever saying they will vote third party doesn't change the actual reality at all. Will millions of people get out and vote for the corporate Democrat? Why is this so difficult for liberals to understand.

    Also, he lives in California, where Democrats have won Presidential elections continously. It makes even less of a difference. Let him vote what he believes rather than stupid harm reduction which doesn't even apply

  • Locked

    Bulletins and International News Discussion from February 9th to February 15th, 2026 - The Return of the Special Period - COTW: Cuba

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  • significant amount of the AI investment leaks abroad, all the GPU imports, server stuff and all, and another huge chunk goes to capitalist hoards. very little domestic multipliers, maybe some temporary construction jobs some staff but thats it.

    It does hold up some asset prices.

  • British Woman shot by dad in Texas after 'arguing about Donald Trump'

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  • "manslaughter"

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from February 9th to February 15th, 2026 - The Return of the Special Period - COTW: Cuba

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  • The Germans and the exporters won't like it.

    Whether it's borrowing or spending itself is complicated. Because EU itself making bonds would mean member countries will have to tax more (depending on who are taxed, it'll be bad for members' growth), provide EU with Euros to pay the debt (politically difficult), also will mean high interest rates (considering there is no lender of last resort).

    Or ECB could buy the debt instead but then certain members will complain. Neither works well.

  • China cuts US Treasury holdings to lowest level since 2008

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  • Invoicing/settlement currency is not the same as source of foreign currency. Net settlement of imbalances have to be done somehow.

    And yea, China exported real goods and imported claims on foreigners/foreign assets/

    If China sells goods, receives Dollars and then swaps it for gold, or just real assets in Africa then it still means the surplus is settled in foreign assets. If foreigners can't hold CNY assets, then adjustment happens by China holding foreign assets instead. Even if China holds 0 Treasuries, 0 USD assets and only real assets even then a trade surplus country like China is accumulating foreign assets, so the world is not holding financial claims on China, it's still the creditor and Yuan (a financial asset) isn't the asset the world is holding.

    And look at what % of total trade is done in/swapped for real assets. I can't find the exact numbers but real assets are more complicated to obtain. Commodities tend to bubble up when you buy too much of it. Keep in mind they have over a trillion dollar trade surplus.

    . If China stops recycling its surplus into the US bond market then the US loses its primary source of cheap credit.

    Not how credit works, it is rest of the world's demand for US Dollars that results in US having a current account deficit, again rest of the world is willing to accept USD, US fiscal deficits are financed by spending itself. If China and the whole world decides they don't want Treasuries, US domestic holders can buy it instead, and if domestic people don't find yield attractive, the Fed can buy it. Or, Treasury can simply spend without providing free money assets i.e. Treasuries. The real adjustment wouldn't US can't 'finance itself' or whatever but shows up in exchange rates, as I said, Americans will have less foreign goods. And Trump has already done a light version of that with his tariffs.

  • China cuts US Treasury holdings to lowest level since 2008

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  • trade with China

    Pay for the trade how?

    You can look at balance of payments data of large countries and it will tell you U.S. and West make up biggest portion of their Trade and Financial Account. Indonesia, Malaysia all these countries earn significant amount of their foreign currencies from the U.S.

    China's trade surplus by definition has to be paid for by a capital/financial account surplus, so on the whole it means China (private, public and the central bank) accumulates financial claims on the rest of the world. Since China doesn't supply Yuan in significant amounts (due to capital controls and their policy choices), the large chunk of the claims are in US Dollars, Euros and other first world currencies. In other words, other countries must pay for China's trade surplus somehow.

    This can change, for example, if China opens up capital controls, then other countries may borrow from China to buy Chinese goods. What makes Western inflows different is that they purchase some amounts of third world currency assets, like Indonesian Rupiah equities, debt which brings in foreign currencies without debt service risk (at least under a floating currency). If Chinese Government or people were allowed and encouraged to do that this may change.

  • China cuts US Treasury holdings to lowest level since 2008

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  • Not them, but you can't sell Treasuries without a counterparty. China is only able to sell these because there is a buyer on the other side.

    And when China sells Dollars which they obtain from sale of Treasuries for Yuan, the Yuan appreciates in the foreign exchange market. But even here, there is a counterparty, someone must be willing to part with Yuan and accept Dollars, the price moves only.

    The thing is, it's still relatively easy even with Trump tariffs to get Dollars, plenty of Americans buying financial and real assets abroad, US runs a trade deficit despite Trump. And countries excluding China have been doing whatever they can to obtain Dollars. Since Yuan appreciates, these countries will have to work harder/get lower goods from China.

    Dollar's International dominance will end when countries increase domestic demand and Governments do an export ban, at least some restrictions on the US or if China or some major economy supplies what US is doing currently, which is not happening right now.

    Even this doesn't mean the end of the Dollar, USD will continue to be in demand within the US, but US will lose some of the resources, labor extracted from elsewhere (real terms of trade) and prices go up (bad news for Treatlers). But it won't be screwed like Venezuela or Syria. Even lesser tier first world currencies like the British Pound, Polish Zloty etc still have disproportionate privilege.

  • Locked

    Bulletins and International News Discussion from February 2nd to February 8th, 2026 - The European Satrapies Are Revolting

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  • Send military ships with them as escort? Isn't that possible?

  • Locked

    Bulletins and International News Discussion from February 2nd to February 8th, 2026 - The European Satrapies Are Revolting

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  • Where's Russia, give them fuel ffs

  • NOT in the Epstein files, you're welcome.

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  • Respect o7

  • Locked

    Bulletins and International News Discussion from February 2nd to February 8th, 2026 - The European Satrapies Are Revolting

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  • Keir Starmer's chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/keir-starmers-chief-of-staff-morgan-mcsweeney-resigns-4222309

    Morgan McSweeney has resigned as the Prime Minister’s chief of staff, saying he took “full responsibility” for advising Keir Starmer to appoint Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to the US.

    In a resignation statement released on Sunday, McSweeney said the decision to appoint Mandelson – who was forced to step down from the role in September – was “wrong”, adding: “He has damaged our party, our country and trust in politics itself.”

    McSweeney said: “When asked, I advised the Prime Minister to make that appointment and I take full responsibility for that advice.

    “In public life responsibility must be owned when it matters most, not just when it is most convenient. In the circumstances, the only honourable course is to step aside.”

    His departure follows mounting pressure from Labour MPs and peers, many of whom blamed McSweeney for pushing through Mandelson’s appointment despite his past association with the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

    The i Paper reported earlier this week that McSweeney was being touted as a “sacrificial lamb” by MPs to allow the Prime Minister to stay on in Downing Street.

    The row intensified in recent days after the release of further Epstein files, which suggest Mandelson shared sensitive Government emails with Epstein during his time as business secretary. Mandelson has previously said he regrets his association with Epstein and denies any wrongdoing.

    Several Labour MPs privately welcomed McSweeney’s resignation, arguing it was necessary to draw a line under weeks of turmoil and refocus the Government on delivery.

    One Labour MP said: “I think it’s the correct decision. We need an end to games and a focus on delivery and governing. Mario Cuomo said you campaign in poetry but govern in prose – it’s a different skill.”

    Another Labour MP described the move as “the bare minimum”, arguing that McSweeney’s strengths were better suited to internal party management than running Downing Street. “For all Morgan’s undoubted skills when it comes to organising to win elections and internal factional fights, he has not proved good at governing,” the MP said.

    They added that the Mandelson appointment, and the fallout that followed, had exposed deeper problems at the heart of Number 10.

    “The advice to appoint Mandelson and the subsequent fallout is the straw that broke the camel’s back,” the MP said, arguing that McSweeney’s departure must “mark a turning point, away from the culture of the backroom boys and towards a more inclusive, authentic No10 operation”.

    The revelations have prompted growing questions over Starmer’s judgement, with senior figures warning that the controversy was damaging public trust in the Government.

    Earlier on Sunday, Labour peer David Blunkett said the Government was in a “major crisis” and argued that Starmer needed to rethink who was advising him at the centre of power.

    “My view now is that he needs a new chief of staff,” Blunkett said, calling for “an opening up of the routes to him so that people can reach him and he can hear what people are thinking and feeling”.

    He added that in moments of crisis, prime ministers must “go back and take a look at who gave you advice and who turned out to be right”.

    Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said McSweeney’s resignation did not absolve Starmer of responsibility.

    “It’s about time,” she said in a post on X. “But once again with this PM it’s somebody else’s fault: ‘Mandelson lied to me’ or ‘Morgan advised me’. Keir Starmer has to take responsibility for his own terrible decisions. But he never does.”

    Downing Street has not yet said who will replace McSweeney or whether an interim chief of staff will be appointed.

  • Locked

    Bulletins and International News Discussion from February 2nd to February 8th, 2026 - The European Satrapies Are Revolting

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  • Besides obvious anti-immigration culture war stuff, I think some of them believe she'll do fiscal populism, obviously that is not going to happen, they are all obsessed with neoliberal bs.

  • US treasury head admits creating 'dollar shortage' in Iran to spark December protests

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  • Ayandeh had attracted deposits from millions of ordinary Iranians by offering unusually high interest rates, creating what one Iranian oversight official allegedly described as a “Ponzi scheme.”

    I find it interesting why such a commercial bank was allowed to operate by the regulators. The WSJ article says it was giving bad loans to cronies, so that was definitely the government’s fault. But the bank’s collapse alone doesn’t explain why there was a run out of the rial. It’s easy to blame the collapse of the bank for the collapse of the rial, but I think it’s mostly mainstream economic propaganda. Also, backstopping is literally what all the Western central banks and treasuries did in 2008 and again in 2023, because the banks gave too many loans or held assets which were illiquid, with no inflation, in fact deflation as demand collapsed in 2008. So clearly, it’s not as simple as backstopping deposits.

    I think it could be said that the dual exchange rate system where the central bank offered preferential rates to certain sectors, and rent seekers too, made it much worse, since the official rate was much more rigid, undervalued because the central bank used reserves to maintain it, certain connected people may have used it to run to dollars while the state lost reserves. When it ran out, a massive devaluation was inevitable.

    Also, he doesn’t talk about the mechanics of how he created a dollar shortage. Did they try going after foreign banks Iran worked with, like in Iraq? I think the government is at least partly to blame, but this wouldn’t have happened if Iran weren’t sanctioned.

  • [CW WILD LEVELS OF RACISM AND ANTISEMITISM] Meeting of the conservative minds on X - the everything app.

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  • to fight antisemitism we must do a genocide.

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  • Yea that definitely worked, antisemitism is on the downturn.

  • Chapotraphouse @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    “Modernity” Is Not the Same as Lack of Poverty

    peoplesdemocracy.in /2026/0125_pd/%E2%80%9Cmodernity%E2%80%9D-not-same-lack-poverty
  • Slop. @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    ‘Maga has gone Maoist’: corporate America reels as Trump turns interventionist

    www.ft.com /content/36ab31dd-6cb6-4b1e-b15d-32eafdcea556
  • memes @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    2025: This guy who was soyfacing and recording right after Charlie was Kirked. He also yoinked some merch afterwards.

  • technology @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    Activating Windows using Epstein's laptop

  • Chapotraphouse @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    The Gangster Phase of Imperialism

    peoplesdemocracy.in /2026/0111_pd/gangster-phase-imperialism
  • Chapotraphouse @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    DOI cracks down on stickers covering Trump's face on national park passes

    www.sfgate.com /national-parks/article/sticker-covering-trump-void-national-park-pass-21278091.php
  • music @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    Kino - Summer is Ending [Кончится Лето] - REMIX

  • Slop. @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    Anyone not liking the Eurozone is promoting "Russian disinformation"

  • technology @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    HONOR WIN RT Hands on & First Impression: 10,000mAh & Built-in Fan & 8 Elite!

  • music @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    Lovely sad 24gh original video

  • Chapotraphouse @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    The Fed Lowered Rates Again. Is It Really a Surprise?

    www.levyinstitute.org /publications/the-fed-lowered-rates-again-is-it-really-a-surprise/
  • Chapotraphouse @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    ‘The gap is widening’: inside Donald Trump’s K-shaped economy

    www.ft.com /content/49274d50-d781-45d5-a4cd-9ab00986d033
  • Chapotraphouse @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    The World Bank Miracle: How to Show Rising Poverty as Declining

    peoplesdemocracy.in /2025/1221_pd/world-bank-miracle-how-show-rising-poverty-declining
  • Chapotraphouse @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    Trump’s “best is yet to come” and the data reality are diverging – for the worse!

    billmitchell.org /blog/
  • Chapotraphouse @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    British Labour’s obsession with fiscal rules is untenable and ignores the reality of the situation

    billmitchell.org /blog/
  • memes @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    Aint no way

  • Chapotraphouse @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    Apropos “Western Civilisation”

    peoplesdemocracy.in /2025/1130_pd/apropos-%E2%80%9Cwestern-civilisation%E2%80%9D
  • Chapotraphouse @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net

    Even with Infinite Time, We Can’t Run Out of QR Codes

  • Chapotraphouse @hexbear.net
    FuckyWucky [none/use name] @hexbear.net
    Polish state owned enterprise

    Repurposed a Nazi Factory Site to Make TNT to Drop on Gaza

    www.dropsitenews.com /p/polish-company-nitro-chem-tnt-us-mk-80-israel-gaza-nazis