Six days ago, we published a piece arguing that every AI subscription is a ticking time bomb for enterprise. We did not expect the fuse to be quite this short.

Excerpt:

The IPO Math Forces the Issue

Both OpenAI and Anthropic are on IPO timelines for the second half of 2026. OpenAI completed the largest private funding round in history in April, $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation. Anthropic has reportedly surpassed $30 billion in annualized revenue. Massive numbers, both of them. Also both attached to companies that are still burning cash at extraordinary rates.

Public markets will not tolerate the gap between subscription revenue and compute cost that has defined the past three years. The moment either company files, analysts will demand unit economics that show a path to margin. Usage-based billing is the fastest way to demonstrate that path.

None of this contradicts the repricing thesis. The pricing war is the last land grab before the gate closes. Both companies are spending aggressively now to lock in users whose switching costs will make them sticky when prices rise. OpenAI offers two months free. Anthropic offers 50% more capacity. Both expire in July. What comes after July is the real pricing.

  • I Cast Fist@programming.dev
    10·
    6 days ago

    But I think it’s more likely they’ll just switch to free, self-hosted AI models.

    Implying anyone left there will even have the know-how to set one up

    • quick_snail@feddit.nl
      31·
      6 days ago

      Wow, you just convinced me to learn how to do something with AI.

      It’ll be a very useful skill to help companies migrate from third party to self hosted AI in the next decade