• somename [she/her]@hexbear.net
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    2 months ago

    Iran getting a nuclear weapon would be one of the best things to happen in decades. Iran has been pushing back the imperialist machine in every way, and getting a nuke would solidify their position in a way nothing else can.

    • Dirt_Possum [she/her, undecided]@hexbear.net
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      2 months ago

      I tend to agree, but it is a legitimate concern for Iran and the rest of the world that “Israel” might, correctly or incorrectly, consider a nuclear-armed Iran to be enough of an existential threat to preemptively nuke them before Iran is even able to retaliate. I hope Iran does develop nukes and I hope it becomes the undisputed regional power and uses that power to, among other things, end the genocide of Palestinians. But there are many intermediate stages where things could go horribly wrong.

      • Hermes [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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        2 months ago

        nuke them before Iran is even able to retaliate.

        If Iran goes public with nuclear arms it will be after they have second strike capability. They have already demonstrated the capability of their missile program with their ability to fire large payload missiles through air defenses and the ability to withstand sustained airstrikes on their missile cities. It is no stretch to say that a nuclear Iran would be able to almost guarantee nuclear retaliation.

  • I might offer a counter opinion I heard from Struggle 4 on twitch the other day. He pointed out two reasons why he thinks they won’t. First was that they don’t need to because it doesn’t really net them more control or power. And second was the optics of the US admin then saying they were justified on the international stage.

    I think it’s a pretty strong argument, but I could see it going either way. If it were me, I’d make the nuke.

      • I believe that would be categorically incorrect. Unless the new Ayatollah has changed the official stance in secret, it would be akin to the Pope issuing an order and the Vatican doing the exact opposite. The government of Iran is a theocratic republic, and the Atatollah issued a fatwa against nukes as a matter of religious doctrine. So I’m not sure that’s going to change even under these circumstances.

    • MarxMadness [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      2 months ago

      They want an end to the war with some confidence that the U.S. won’t immediately attack again. The U.S. is totally untrustworthy, so nukes are one of the most realistic answers for them.

    • supafuzz [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      2 months ago

      for real once they have nukes they can never shoot another missile at the entity unless they really mean it

      and no more missiles falling on tel aviv would be a world-historic tragedy

      • MarxMadness [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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        2 months ago

        Why? There are a number of examples of conflicts between nuclear states that haven’t evolved into a nuclear exchange.

        It’s an incredibly dangerous game, but it matches the stakes.

        • TommyCatkins [none/use any]@hexbear.net
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          2 months ago

          They are in a conflict NOW, and that makes all the difference. Why would you announce a nuclear device during an active conflict unless you mean to use it? Everyone would interpret the next missile as a nuclear warhead and retaliate accordingly

          • MarxMadness [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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            2 months ago

            If the idea is to deter aggression – not to actually use them on a target – you’d want your enemy to know what you have. It’s like brandishing a gun to make someone back off. The threat doesn’t work if it’s hidden.

            This is even a joke in Dr. Stragelove: “they built a doomsday machine but didn’t tell anyone about it??”

  • hotcouchguy [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    2 months ago

    If they want nukes, it makes sense to just build them, and maintain secrecy until they have a dozen or so in a usable state. Which makes me think this is about something else: could be deterring Saudis from getting nukes, or removing IAEA spies, or something else going on.

  • orlando [they/them]@hexbear.net
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    2 months ago

    i thought the strategy was to not use nuclear warheads so that they could use ballistics on isreal or wherever without the possibility of it being interpreted as a nuclear weapon?

  • Monk3brain3 [any, he/him]@hexbear.net
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    2 months ago

    Absolutely essential for Iran to get nukes asap if they don’t want to have the US and Israeli Zionazi coalition trying to destroy them forever. I’ve heard some braindead commentary that Iran might not want a nuke because Turkey and Saudi will get one but in which universe are either as big a threat to any human in their near vicinity as Israel is for all non Jews in the middle east. Also if Turkey or Saudi did get a nuke then what? Is Iran planning a war with them? Honestly it would be great because Saudi would also back the fuck off as they should goddam scumbags.

    • Dirt_Possum [she/her, undecided]@hexbear.net
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      2 months ago

      I think a bigger concern than Turkey and Saudi is the frothing rabid dog that may or may not abide its master in the eventuality that it thinks someone may be able to finally come and put it down.

    • miz [any, any]@hexbear.net
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      2 months ago

      have the US and Israeli Zionazi coalition trying to destroy them forever

      but they will already try to do this

      • Monk3brain3 [any, he/him]@hexbear.net
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        2 months ago

        I don’t think that they would if Iran had nuclear weapons. They’d absolutely want to though and are indirectly attacking Russia through proxies. One has to think that Russia failed to establish deterrence. North korea on the other hand did so it’s possible.

  • AlteredEgo@lemmy.ml
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    2 months ago

    I suspect this is fake news. It’s not in Iran’s best interest to have nukes -because then all their neighbors will want nukes as well. They already have the straight of hormuz and also can make cheap and efficient rockets and drones. They actually beat the US in a conventional war. And their supply lines to Russia and China can’t easily be blocked.