That delusion is so common that I suspect it must have a name, but I don’t know what it is.
But the better a solution appears, the more a person who sees the solution believes it to be obvious, and therefore also believes that, had they tried to solve the problem, they’d have come up with this “obvious” solution straight away with no effort.
Meanwhile, the person who actually solved the problem could only come up with the perfect simple solution after a lifetime of study in the area to the point that you’d call them an expert or master, and after agonizing for a long time over this particular problem.
I think that a “solution” could have that “so obvious” bias like you’re saying. I don’t think that natural phenomena necessarily has to though. I remember many ways that physics and other sciences describe how systems behave being obvious to the point I knew the lesson before it was taught (just without the correct terminology). Density, leverage, heat conduction, etc were just describing behaviors I think most people understand through experience without needing a class. We still credit a guy getting hit with an apple as the “discoverer” of gravity. He just got the clout for something everyone already knew.
“Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along phenomenon or creeping determinism, is the common tendency for people to perceive past events as having been more predictable than they were.”
It’s a kind of cognitive bias that assumes things that are obvious to us would be inevitably found without uncertainty, or trial and error.
Historical projections of population place the global population at roughly 162 million people. Let’s say only .1% of the population was capable of this sort of thing. Although I think it’s low and while these early Greek philosophers were certainly smart the key to their success was wealth and the ability to focus on their “craft”. But I’ll really lowball human intelligence
Anyway, at .1% of people that means roughly 162,000 thousand people would be capable. The number of those with resources to actually dedicate the time even smaller.
Today the world population is over 8 billion, but we’ll use 8 billion. So at .1% that gives us 8 million people alive today that would be capable.
I really underestimated human intelligence, but the point is the same. We have so so many people alive today that there is certainly quite a few people capable of doing these sorts of things
That seems like a fair percentage estimate. What you’re leaving out is society. The ancient Greeks, even the 99.9% dummies, were excited about philosophy and learning. Today, Joe Rogan is one of the most popular podcasts in the world and you can’t throw a stick without hitting a dozen grifters proudly parroting logical fallacies while people clap. So yeah, there might be eight million people out there, but their thoughtful blog probably gets a dozen hits a month. Their world changing lecture was cancelled for being woke. Their exciting revelation they add to the conversation get overshadowed by someone yelling how great “Oh! My Balls!” was last night.
Bringing up Joe Rogan, but ignoring the estimated 1% of the global population with PhDs is a choice.
If we just counted phds that becomes 800 million people, but truthfully I think most capable of a masters would stand a good chance of doing this work.
Human intelligence is often underestimated by cynics imo
1% of the global population with PhDs is a choice.
If we just counted phds that becomes 800 million people
Ouch. And to follow that up with “intelligence is often underestimated by cynics imo”. Simply brutal. I hate to be the one to break this too you, but having a PhD doesn’t necessarily mean a person is smart. Even if it did, that 1% is sort of entirely making my above point about society.
Considering that alone suggests a rate 10 times higher than they suggested yeah.
But also don’t assume education is equally distributed. Wealthy nations have higher percentages of the population with PhDs. Also let’s not forget the economic factors. Many fields you at most need a masters degree for job reasons. There are a lot of capable people that stopped there to get a job
No you wouldn’t. All this stuff may seem obvious now but it only does so because somebody figured it out before.
I would, too! I would have invented math! All of it!
I mean a lot of what Socrates and Plato wrote and taught are just self justifications for the ancient Greek ruling class.
That delusion is so common that I suspect it must have a name, but I don’t know what it is.
But the better a solution appears, the more a person who sees the solution believes it to be obvious, and therefore also believes that, had they tried to solve the problem, they’d have come up with this “obvious” solution straight away with no effort.
Meanwhile, the person who actually solved the problem could only come up with the perfect simple solution after a lifetime of study in the area to the point that you’d call them an expert or master, and after agonizing for a long time over this particular problem.
I think that a “solution” could have that “so obvious” bias like you’re saying. I don’t think that natural phenomena necessarily has to though. I remember many ways that physics and other sciences describe how systems behave being obvious to the point I knew the lesson before it was taught (just without the correct terminology). Density, leverage, heat conduction, etc were just describing behaviors I think most people understand through experience without needing a class. We still credit a guy getting hit with an apple as the “discoverer” of gravity. He just got the clout for something everyone already knew.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias
“Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along phenomenon or creeping determinism, is the common tendency for people to perceive past events as having been more predictable than they were.”
It’s a kind of cognitive bias that assumes things that are obvious to us would be inevitably found without uncertainty, or trial and error.
Historical projections of population place the global population at roughly 162 million people. Let’s say only .1% of the population was capable of this sort of thing. Although I think it’s low and while these early Greek philosophers were certainly smart the key to their success was wealth and the ability to focus on their “craft”. But I’ll really lowball human intelligence
Anyway, at .1% of people that means roughly 162,000 thousand people would be capable. The number of those with resources to actually dedicate the time even smaller.
Today the world population is over 8 billion, but we’ll use 8 billion. So at .1% that gives us 8 million people alive today that would be capable.
I really underestimated human intelligence, but the point is the same. We have so so many people alive today that there is certainly quite a few people capable of doing these sorts of things
That seems like a fair percentage estimate. What you’re leaving out is society. The ancient Greeks, even the 99.9% dummies, were excited about philosophy and learning. Today, Joe Rogan is one of the most popular podcasts in the world and you can’t throw a stick without hitting a dozen grifters proudly parroting logical fallacies while people clap. So yeah, there might be eight million people out there, but their thoughtful blog probably gets a dozen hits a month. Their world changing lecture was cancelled for being woke. Their exciting revelation they add to the conversation get overshadowed by someone yelling how great “Oh! My Balls!” was last night.
Bringing up Joe Rogan, but ignoring the estimated 1% of the global population with PhDs is a choice.
If we just counted phds that becomes 800 million people, but truthfully I think most capable of a masters would stand a good chance of doing this work.
Human intelligence is often underestimated by cynics imo
Oops, a decimal error there.
One percent of eight billion is eighty million, not eight hundred million.
Calling a 10 times increase a decimal error is selling me on the cynical view so good job I suppose
Ouch. And to follow that up with “intelligence is often underestimated by cynics imo”. Simply brutal. I hate to be the one to break this too you, but having a PhD doesn’t necessarily mean a person is smart. Even if it did, that 1% is sort of entirely making my above point about society.
Considering that alone suggests a rate 10 times higher than they suggested yeah.
But also don’t assume education is equally distributed. Wealthy nations have higher percentages of the population with PhDs. Also let’s not forget the economic factors. Many fields you at most need a masters degree for job reasons. There are a lot of capable people that stopped there to get a job
Teaching “common sense” is so hard because kids get so offended that you think they are stupid.
“Einstein is such an idiot. I learned about general relativity in middle school”