Quoth the death row inmate, “I’m willing to negotiate”
Well, yeah duh? Ending the war would result in the reopening of the strait.
lmao
This is all bullshit, smoke and mirrors to cover up decisions for ground operations that have already occurred and are underway.
While I do expect the US will escalate, simply pulling out would be the least bad option at this point. I don’t see any way the US can actually reopen the strait by force. So, further escalation is simply going to drain more resources from the empire, without changing the long term strategic outcome.
Of course, simply pulling out at this point is also a disaster. US vassals will see that the US was defeated. They’re still going to have to deal with Iran to get through the strait. The petrodollar would take a huge hit if Iran continues to insist trade through the strait is done in yuan. US geopolitical position is going to collapse because everyone will know that the US can’t protect them. But all of these things are already baked in the cake at this point. Continuing the war is basically a sunk cost.
if Iran continues to insist trade through the strait is done in yuan
let there be permanent consequenceshonestly, collapse of the petrodollar as a result of this would be the most hilarious outcome
Don’t give me hope man. Don’t give me something to live for.
The White House said Trump was considering asking Arab nations to pay for the cost of the war.
Forcing the gulf states to pay for this war more than they already are wouldn’t make those states less willing to ally themselves with the US. We’ve seen this shit over and over again, predictions about US vassals turning away from the US due to self interest turn out to be overblown. These countries are vassals, not soveirgn states.
However, despite all of that, it would be a great humiliation. An major economic and political setback. The hole in the petrostate budgets will only grow bigger.
If these Arab nations had any brains at all, they’d realize that paying reparations to Iran and kicking out the US would be far cheaper at this point.
The Gulf monarchies are only able to stay in power because of the US presence though. Their only chance for survival is for Trump to pull out.
When Trump pulls out, Iran will continue to control Hormuz, and they will make sure there is no American presence in the region going forward. So, all these monarchies are going to have to deal with Iran from there on. It is entirely possible they just end up collapsing though.
Remember dialectics: the contradictions first build before they completely aufheben. THey will take it until a certain amount of fucking has happened and then flip at once (maybe all, more likely a bunch together), but that will take more than this situation, I agree. First, they have to see that China is the more stable partner to maintain the current structure. Right now China is scary because they won’t assist in putting down opposition like the US, but once the US causes more opposition than it keeps at bay, China will come on top. Then the shift to China as a partner will eventually lead the next contradictions to develop towards internal revolutionary changes inshallah
I think the current monarchies themselves will collapse before they truly turn away from the US. They have too much capital tied in US capex markets. They are more reliant on the petrodollar than even the US is. And they are also extremely reliant on labor/machine imports from wealthy western countries and poorer states at least partially in the US orbit (like India).
In dialectical terms these monarchies have tied the contradictions of US imperialism around their necks like a noose. The tightening of those contradictions is taking them out first.
I hope you’re correct! I, unfortunately think that the majority of the gulf monarchies are internally stable enough to first solve their external contradictions before their internal ones will break, but I don’t feel too strongly about it! Do you think that they couldn’t get machinery which works from non-western sources? I’m skeptical only because of how many countries function and get oil without that machinery. But I have little technical knowledge of those systems
The obstacles in the way are numerous
- Existing agreements with western companies
- Patents and licencising
- Cost of buying new machinery, installing it
- Downtime due to switching
- Getting your engineers used to new machinery
- Political pressures affecting the descision to even start
- Compatibility with parts
And probably a whole bunch of technical issues.
I think these are all legitimate operational contradictions, but that these are questions of money which are preferrable to current monarchies than the larger material ones: is ownership of the capital and assets configured to benefit the monarchy or to undermine it? That question seems less relevant until the contradictions sharpen, in which case it will become essential and these technical problems will be seen as small peas and worth whatever is necessary. Now, the question is, naturally, will that be realizable of will that fail because the hurdle is too big technically to handle without losing political power? I hope they do fail, but I think that will come to head first…
But again, I think your analysis is fine and pretty much as likely as mine. I think it hinges very much on how willing labor will be to go along (or willing to be forced to go along) at many steps in this process.
This has been the stupidest and most careless waste of human life in my lifetime. Just a sick joke.
“I hearby declare the Straight of Hormuz OPEN. Im withdrawing all our beautiful troops and taking my toys home, WE WIN Thank you for your attention to this matter”
He did that already
-president DONALD J trumP
Please Iran, perform the ritual of the Petroyuan, so that we may form the cracks in the wall of satanic currency’s hegemony.
Waiting for him to begin throwing others under the bus in earnest. That might be interesting.
Yeah that’s totally going to happen. He already said how this was all Hegseth’s idea. He seems like the most likely patsy to get sacrificed.
Hegseth is on the chopping block for this one.
If he has a split second of clarity he’d realize the quick way out of this while saving face is to drop it now and claim it was all made up by bb. With him, I see it as the same odds of full invasion, nukes, withdrawal and refuse to talk about it, sending someone to the moon, or giving himself the congressional medal of honor.
giving himself the congressional medal of honor.
That would be beyond awesome. To make that happen - somebody needs to show him…
Extra value meal futures skyrocketing
How does that work, exactly?
Oil tankers will just do a sick kickflip overland instead of sailing through the strait. It will look super badass with all the IRGC missiles exploding around them.
I imagine Israel would like Saudi Arabia to rely on the trans arabian pipeline again.
Ha ha ha, except nothing is funny about what the decaying orange bastard is doing.
What an excellent negotiator and deal maker. Really smart and full of foresight. No one bankrupts and ruins like trump, the vile pedo.
