Remember dialectics: the contradictions first build before they completely aufheben. THey will take it until a certain amount of fucking has happened and then flip at once (maybe all, more likely a bunch together), but that will take more than this situation, I agree. First, they have to see that China is the more stable partner to maintain the current structure. Right now China is scary because they won’t assist in putting down opposition like the US, but once the US causes more opposition than it keeps at bay, China will come on top. Then the shift to China as a partner will eventually lead the next contradictions to develop towards internal revolutionary changes inshallah
I think the current monarchies themselves will collapse before they truly turn away from the US. They have too much capital tied in US capex markets. They are more reliant on the petrodollar than even the US is. And they are also extremely reliant on labor/machine imports from wealthy western countries and poorer states at least partially in the US orbit (like India).
In dialectical terms these monarchies have tied the contradictions of US imperialism around their necks like a noose. The tightening of those contradictions is taking them out first.
I hope you’re correct! I, unfortunately think that the majority of the gulf monarchies are internally stable enough to first solve their external contradictions before their internal ones will break, but I don’t feel too strongly about it! Do you think that they couldn’t get machinery which works from non-western sources? I’m skeptical only because of how many countries function and get oil without that machinery. But I have little technical knowledge of those systems
I think these are all legitimate operational contradictions, but that these are questions of money which are preferrable to current monarchies than the larger material ones: is ownership of the capital and assets configured to benefit the monarchy or to undermine it? That question seems less relevant until the contradictions sharpen, in which case it will become essential and these technical problems will be seen as small peas and worth whatever is necessary. Now, the question is, naturally, will that be realizable of will that fail because the hurdle is too big technically to handle without losing political power? I hope they do fail, but I think that will come to head first…
But again, I think your analysis is fine and pretty much as likely as mine. I think it hinges very much on how willing labor will be to go along (or willing to be forced to go along) at many steps in this process.
Remember dialectics: the contradictions first build before they completely aufheben. THey will take it until a certain amount of fucking has happened and then flip at once (maybe all, more likely a bunch together), but that will take more than this situation, I agree. First, they have to see that China is the more stable partner to maintain the current structure. Right now China is scary because they won’t assist in putting down opposition like the US, but once the US causes more opposition than it keeps at bay, China will come on top. Then the shift to China as a partner will eventually lead the next contradictions to develop towards internal revolutionary changes inshallah
I think the current monarchies themselves will collapse before they truly turn away from the US. They have too much capital tied in US capex markets. They are more reliant on the petrodollar than even the US is. And they are also extremely reliant on labor/machine imports from wealthy western countries and poorer states at least partially in the US orbit (like India).
In dialectical terms these monarchies have tied the contradictions of US imperialism around their necks like a noose. The tightening of those contradictions is taking them out first.
I hope you’re correct! I, unfortunately think that the majority of the gulf monarchies are internally stable enough to first solve their external contradictions before their internal ones will break, but I don’t feel too strongly about it! Do you think that they couldn’t get machinery which works from non-western sources? I’m skeptical only because of how many countries function and get oil without that machinery. But I have little technical knowledge of those systems
The obstacles in the way are numerous
And probably a whole bunch of technical issues.
I think these are all legitimate operational contradictions, but that these are questions of money which are preferrable to current monarchies than the larger material ones: is ownership of the capital and assets configured to benefit the monarchy or to undermine it? That question seems less relevant until the contradictions sharpen, in which case it will become essential and these technical problems will be seen as small peas and worth whatever is necessary. Now, the question is, naturally, will that be realizable of will that fail because the hurdle is too big technically to handle without losing political power? I hope they do fail, but I think that will come to head first…
But again, I think your analysis is fine and pretty much as likely as mine. I think it hinges very much on how willing labor will be to go along (or willing to be forced to go along) at many steps in this process.