• MLRL_Commie [comrade/them, he/him]@hexbear.net
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    2 days ago

    I hope you’re correct! I, unfortunately think that the majority of the gulf monarchies are internally stable enough to first solve their external contradictions before their internal ones will break, but I don’t feel too strongly about it! Do you think that they couldn’t get machinery which works from non-western sources? I’m skeptical only because of how many countries function and get oil without that machinery. But I have little technical knowledge of those systems

    • sodium_nitride [she/her, any]@hexbear.net
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      2 days ago

      The obstacles in the way are numerous

      1. Existing agreements with western companies
      2. Patents and licencising
      3. Cost of buying new machinery, installing it
      4. Downtime due to switching
      5. Getting your engineers used to new machinery
      6. Political pressures affecting the descision to even start
      7. Compatibility with parts

      And probably a whole bunch of technical issues.

      • MLRL_Commie [comrade/them, he/him]@hexbear.net
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        2 days ago

        I think these are all legitimate operational contradictions, but that these are questions of money which are preferrable to current monarchies than the larger material ones: is ownership of the capital and assets configured to benefit the monarchy or to undermine it? That question seems less relevant until the contradictions sharpen, in which case it will become essential and these technical problems will be seen as small peas and worth whatever is necessary. Now, the question is, naturally, will that be realizable of will that fail because the hurdle is too big technically to handle without losing political power? I hope they do fail, but I think that will come to head first…

        But again, I think your analysis is fine and pretty much as likely as mine. I think it hinges very much on how willing labor will be to go along (or willing to be forced to go along) at many steps in this process.