Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
How come that our analysis leads us to the conclusion that this war is not just a Trump crashout, but a plan that the US had and prepped up for decades, but then the attack comes and the US seems entirely unprepared?
Of course Iran had a similar amount of time to prepare, but still. A thought I had is that the previous administrations didn’t attack Iran because they concluded that they can’t overcome Iran yet and needed to wait for a more opportune moment for an assured victory?
I just didn’t think that a singular person would be capable of just ruining such plans tbh.
These plans were drafted when the US was a little better at conventional warfare, because back in the 90s they had an army prepped to fight the soviets if they had to. Nowadays not so much
The original plan was basically to do a clean sweep of the middle east, Afganistan, Iraq, then Syria then libya, then Iran. Evem back then they dropped a full invasion of Iran after if became clear itd be stupid.
3.But that’s the thing about fascism, it has no other choice. For example, Japan attacking the USA was an extremely stupid move from the perspective of actually having a functioning country if you lost. But from the fascist pov, they were still losing in china and the USA cut off imports. Their option was either attack the USA and western SE Asian colonies or…just sit there and collapse. So they chose the option that gave them more time.
This plays into my hypothesis that they basically used all of their intelligence assets in the massive insurrection before this all began. Because now Iran had a very low chance of actually having a. Revolution that benefitted the west and Israel, and Israel itself basically needed to stop Iran now before they got stronger, so the only option for the fascists was to attack
Thank you so much!
I think part of my issue was that I underestimated Iran and only thought of it as a victim that landed a good couple hits due to their intelligence and counterintelligence rather than a force that was united, prepared and has enough reserves and production capabilities to take on the genocidal states. Especially the point of Iran becoming stronger and Israel not having good prospects of being able to keep up in the future leading to desperation helped me understand it a bit better.
Other comments mentioned the counterintelligence eroding the Intel of the US and them relying on wonky info now due to said desperation as well.
This makes me a little bit more (cautiously) optimistic. Thank you!
We need the Sayyed Ali Khamenei Apology form stat!
In more facist periods the bourgeois ideology gets more and more irrational traits to try to convince segments of the petite bouegeois and the workers to support the bourgeois state despited the increased exploutation of the working class, this ultimately reflects in more irational leadership as well. In this case, I think it is entirely possible the US leadership too eagerly bought into their own propaganda about their military strength and the supposed weakness of their enemies. It is not because of Trump or anything like that, he is just part of a less rational bourgeois state apparatus due to material reasons.
That being said, I think they may have had some indications that could have implied that the war would go better for them, which they too eagerly accepted.
Thank you for your insight! Paired with the other comments I think I have a better picture of the potential situation now.
US intelligence has been up against more widesread and more effective counter-intelligence. It’s entirely possible that they simply didn’t have the intelligence they needed and they had to fill in some gaps with guesswork, and they chose optimism.
it didn’t matter if the situation was going to get bad because the alternative was letting Iran get stronger
the goal isn’t to win it’s to get enemy capabilities focused somewhere, anywhere, instead of being held in reserve, in order to create opportunities for the US to gain initiative on its next move
Thank you for helping me understand it a bit better! I think I have a clearer picture now together with the other comments explaining similar things.
US intelligence has been telling US presidents since Reagan that attacking Iran is a dumb idea. It’s why the US tried it through an Iraqi proxy for plausible deniability. Trump is just the first to be malleable enough to be 100% on board with Zionist and Christo-Fascist rhetoric. His “I don’t think I’m getting into heaven” comment was written off as a joke, but it should have scared the shit out of all of us, since it showed his mindset. He was probably led to believe by those around him, including too many in the Pentagon, that attacking Iran was his get-of-jail-free card and Dog would grant him indulgence for diddling little kids.
As a general rule, colonial powers do not willingly give up their colonies and will look to regain their colonies when they do.
That explains like 80% of antagonistic international relations.
In part it is just a trump fuck up but only because he is the fuck up in the position. (can you imagine KKKopmala doing any better?) The american plan that existed for decades was “we should make Iran our slave.” The actual plan they used was a mash up of old moves that worked in the past in totally different conditions and they didn’t even get the timing right.
It is also a systemic failure because under the american system loyalty is more important than honesty. So they end up with a ever increasing systemic hubris.
Previous administrations did try to take Iran. Saddam’s Iraq was pumped up with weapons by the west for the Iran-Iraq war.
Previous administrations allowed themselves to be constrained by the rules they made up, but the current admin doesn’t care about the rules because they’re woke. I do think that has an influence on their decisions on Venezuela and Iran, without the rules they can just kidnap and kill their leaders instead of relying on sanctions, color revolution, the “”“rules based international order”“” etc etc
Then again, they basically torched the rules already in Gaza, so maybe they’d have been less reluctant to break more rules.
They haven’t followed their own laws since ww2. usa hasn’t been at “war” since ww2. They are all “armed conflicts” or “police actions.”
Yeah, but the rules and the laws are different, that’s why they call it the “”“rules based international order”“” instead of international law. The rules are just something they made up, but they allowed themselves to be constrained by them. They could have removed Maduro or started war with Iran whenever they wanted, but that would go against the rules. That’s why they tried everything else under the Sun to destroy them without actually landing troops or dropping bombs. They didn’t want to do this without ideological rules-based justification before.