If anything Iran’s playbook seems the opposite of accelerationist: carefully let the US strangle itself and withstand its death throes. Think of how many times people wanted them to lob everything they have straight at Israel all at once.

Yeah, that’s fair.

If US leftists were magically given a button that said “accelerate” we should probably refrain from pushing it until we’ve cultivated enough organization to actually seize and hold power, rather than whatever paramilitary. Plus since the US has nukes it’s kind of better for the world that it dies gradually, to some degree.

Also great point

That’s fair. I was being overly broad by saying that making the empire make mistakes was accelerationism

Maybe this is gauche, and maybe I need a struggle session, but is the outcome of the conflict actually a rare positive outcome of accelerationism? Like, if the empire is declining, making it over extend actually works? I never thought of OBL’s strategy as accelerationism, but , I dunno. The thought just imposed itself on me

It’s a game of chicken right now. The frozen conflict can wreak havoc on domestic stability in Iran if it goes on too long and if the imperialists find ways to tighten the siege (like the blockade). At the same time, the oil situation is dangerous for the US. Yes, the US has strategic reserves to ride this out a little bit. Yes the US can buffer with Venezuelan oil and other sources. But these things can only go so far. Other commodities like helium and fertilizer will also cause huge problems for the US.

But the US has the greatest ability of the many parties involved to obtain things they need. So the US is probably calculating that they can win the game of chicken. I don’t think they believe they can open the straight via force. They know that Iran can mine the waterway and that guerilla fighters could maintain unacceptable threat levels. So I actually don’t think the US will resume hostilities.

I do think Israel is trying to take advantage of the fact that Iran cannot safely extend itself to defend the entire region or risk exposing major vulnerabilities to US attacks. For now I think this is the real threat - Israeli expansion in the region.

I am curious as to what will come from the meeting between Xi and Putin this week. Watching what changes in Ukraine after this meeting will give us some insight into how well China is weathering the resource crisis

I’m no strategist, but I think you’re wrong here. Lebanon is a sovereign nation and the government there is not yet engaged in resistance. If Israel keeps attacking Lebanon and the Lebanon government continues to not join the resistance, at some point the government will fall to internal rebellion. This would be net positive for the resistance, though absolutely devastating for the Lebanese people. The alternative is that Iran protects the Lebanese people and the Lebanese government continues to support the West.

Equally important, Israel continue to extend itself in this campaign exposing operations, personnel, and logistics, all of which become more vulnerable the longer their campaign continues. Stopping it early is not strategically valuable. Again, devastating for the Lebanese people, but they are the responsibility of the Lebanese government who needs to get on the right side of history before they are going to be able to rely on Iran’s support.

Not really. Iran is an existential problem for Israel because of its ability to project force. Cuba is an indirect existential problem for the USA because it might inspire the USA working class to become an existential threat to the oligarchy. These are very different.

From the US spin doctor perspective, possibly. But Israel needs the US 100% focused on West Asia. It’s existential for them

Israel has absolutely no interest in Cuba in any way, shape, or form. If Israel has kompromat on Fetterman, which it doesn’t even need since the guy would do anything they asked him anyway, they’re not going to direct him to go against Cuba unless the US power elite asks them to do it. The USA is still in charge in this relationship. Israel has developed some of its own interests for survival and has to coerce powerful people in the US sometimes, but Israel is not setting the Cuba agenda.

Oooh shit

Is this not an act of war against Iran? Is this not a ceasefire violation?

The US military isn’t something to be trifled with. They gained a lot of intelligence in the last month. They’d be backing off if there wasn’t a genuine threat that they could bring to the region. They’re not going to be able to occupy Iran by any means, but the damage they could inflict is considerable. They’re clearly boiling the frog on the blockage. Unless Iran sinks an aircraft carrier in the first few waves, I fear that Iran will suffer incredible losses once the ceasefire breaks, since the entire point of the ceasefire has clearly been to advance the imperialist position without resistance

While I get that, if Iran gets overwhelmed by the next wave of attacks…

Someone explain why Iran doesn’t just send cluster munitions at the staging areas and the exercise locations and break the ceasefire on their own terms?

Less cope and more spin. This is effectively advocating for US removal on a pretense that saves face.

Imperialists: those of you affected by the situation in the Middle East need to bind together and end it once and for all

The World: OK, Death to America

Imperialists: Wait! Not like that!

:sickos:

Yeah, it would be a signal of a coming seismic shift in geopolitics

I am fairly certain you will not be able to find anywhere that Hegel actually articulates thesis antithesis synthesis as his formulation of dialectics. It’s a misattribution made the world over, but it needs to be corrected if we are to understand the history of dialectics accurately

Just know that you’re not alone in seeing it. More are waking up, and faster. We can support each other. We can create space for each other to rest.

Thanks. I appreciate the perspective