Since January 2025, the Trump administration has ramped up immigration enforcement. A key rationale for the policy is that it will open up jobs for Americans by reducing competition from undocumented immigrants.
The way that number is derived is hilariously old fashioned and error prone. They don’t change it so they can plausibly put out month after month big job gains then quietly adjust it down later. Trump has been doing this the whole time with neutral to amazing job reports in most of the past 18 months yet, somehow, over those 18 months job gains are near zero.
It’s also worth noting that the official unemployment rate has been unbelievably stable. As in, no one should believe it. Workforce participation has dropped from 62.5% to 61.8% during Trump2 telling us unemployment has gone up, but they’re massaging one number to make another look good.
Oh the added jobs are people doing second jobs or even third jobs. Because some of the working class people I know in the US. Are all looking for a second job. My mechanic friend after his shift at the garage drives Uber late till 11pm.
Another store manager friend, goes and works as a cashier for a bodega for 4 hours, because he needs that cash to just survive.
The break even rate for unemployment is complicated and shifts arrive. Immigration, deaths, Labor force participation, who gets counted as employed or unemployed, etc all factor in.
Ballpark 150k is about 0.1% of employed Americans currently.
Where is the credible source data you trust for any of this downstream analysis? All collecting/reporting agencies have been corrupted or defunded at this point.
Maddening to see people doing things like citing the current CDC for medical information - we’re seven layers deep into hell at this point. You’re clinging to an illusory normalcy, and sharing it with others to comfort yourself as society actively burns down around you.
Something is going on very strange. Last month the economy added 172,000 jobs while unemployment remained at 4.3%.
The way that number is derived is hilariously old fashioned and error prone. They don’t change it so they can plausibly put out month after month big job gains then quietly adjust it down later. Trump has been doing this the whole time with neutral to amazing job reports in most of the past 18 months yet, somehow, over those 18 months job gains are near zero.
It’s also worth noting that the official unemployment rate has been unbelievably stable. As in, no one should believe it. Workforce participation has dropped from 62.5% to 61.8% during Trump2 telling us unemployment has gone up, but they’re massaging one number to make another look good.
Oh the added jobs are people doing second jobs or even third jobs. Because some of the working class people I know in the US. Are all looking for a second job. My mechanic friend after his shift at the garage drives Uber late till 11pm. Another store manager friend, goes and works as a cashier for a bodega for 4 hours, because he needs that cash to just survive.
That’s how they’re adding the jobs.
The number of people they use in that kind of calculation is constantly shifting.
If you add 100k jobs, while also having 100k people entering the demographic, then the % is gonna stay the same
They are cooking the books but also they don’t count people that have given up as unemployed, regardless of age.
The break even rate for unemployment is complicated and shifts arrive. Immigration, deaths, Labor force participation, who gets counted as employed or unemployed, etc all factor in.
Ballpark 150k is about 0.1% of employed Americans currently.
They are fucking with the numbers though.
Where is the credible source data you trust for any of this downstream analysis? All collecting/reporting agencies have been corrupted or defunded at this point.
Maddening to see people doing things like citing the current CDC for medical information - we’re seven layers deep into hell at this point. You’re clinging to an illusory normalcy, and sharing it with others to comfort yourself as society actively burns down around you.
Or whatever.