Image is an illustration that I have made to show what each side means when they say that Hormuz is “open” or “closed”, as various officials and analysts have created a lot of confusion with their statements, both intentionally and unintentionally.
I’m tentatively going back to the weekly thread format in the hopes that even if/when the conflict resumes, daily comment counts will keep us at or below ~3000 per week. If not, we’ll just go back to the 3000 comment threshold being what triggers a new thread being created.
The events of the last two weeks have been the most unintelligible of at least the last four years, and on some days I took one look at the situation and decided to just not even bother and do something else until the next day.
To attempt to summarize:
long summary
Against many people’s expectations, including my own, the ceasefire was not immediately scuttled upon its inception despite violations (predominantly against Lebanon), which indicates to me that both the US and Iran wanted a ceasefire more than they wanted to continue firing, at least for two weeks. For both sides, it represented an opportunity to reorganize, rebuild, and restrategize going forward.
The US has continued its rapid flurry of airlifting to and from the Middle East, and while what exactly they have brought and intend to do next is a mystery, airlifting is a very inefficient method of transferring resources en masse, meaning that any kind of massive ground invasion is still many months away (though I still strongly doubt it’ll ever happen). Attempting to do more raids like the failed Istafan raid seems like the most likely option, as well as perhaps some disastrous attempts to hold Gulf islands.
Meanwhile, Iran has been excavating the entrances to their missile cities and has rapidly rebuilt bridges and railway lines. While the rate of reconstruction has shocked some observers, people like us who have paid abnormally high attention to the Ukraine War will not be surprised - infrastructure is very difficult to take out for any meaningful length of time even when it’s not purposefully decentralized. It also seems extremely likely that Iran has continued to receive shipments of resources and weapons from Russia and China, though what exactly is being supplied is not concretely known.
Iran sent a highly qualified team to Pakistan to negotiate, and the US sent, among others, Vice President Vance too. After a marathon ~20 hour session, no deal was struck, and both sides left Pakistan (the Iranian team taking many precautions to not get shot down). While the nuclear issue seemed to be the major sticking point, it is very difficult to see the US - and Trump in particular - formally agreeing to a tollbooth in Hormuz or the retreat from their Middle Eastern bases even if they have already effectively retreated from most of them.
These negotiations took place in an environment of constant violations of the ceasefire on the Lebanon front. Iran initially tied their attendance of talks to a total cessation of conflict in Lebanon, though ultimately decided to go to Islamabad without a de facto ceasefire but with some sort of guarantee that we’ll go tell Netanyahu to stop firing for a while. A few days after the negotiations failed, a more comprehensive ceasefire was actually achieved in Lebanon. It’s still a Zionist Ceasefire (“you cease fire, we keep attacking”), and the Zionists committed several massive civilian atrocities just before the ceasefire began. After the ceasefire began, violations have, to my knowledge, been remarkably few up to the time of me writing this.
Shortly after the failure of negotiations, the US began their own blockade of Iran’s ports. As the US Navy cannot get within a few hundred miles of even the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade is taking place at some line in the Sea of Oman, where Iranian ships will be intercepted. The confusion caused by this situation has been incredible, with a few days of people tracking Iranian tankers closely, concluding that if they had crossed the Strait of Hormuz, they had successfully ran the blockade (they had not). After about a week of this de jure blockade, it was indeed confirmed to be real when the US captured its first Iranian oil tanker. This prompted Iran to fully close the Strait of Hormuz (see the megathread image), and there are reports of, as always, at best questionable veracity that in response to the US’s blockade of their blockade, Iran possibly intends to 1) totally blockade Gulf State ports in the Persian Gulf of any kind, not just oil, and/or 2) talk to their ally Ansarallah and have them blockade the Red Sea (and they seem keen to do so in support of the Resistance).
Additionally, Iran has made the end of the US blockade the precondition to enter into new negotiations. The short term and even medium term effect of the US blockade will be minimal - China has a colossal strategic petroleum reserve which will last them several months even with their economy at full steam even assuming all Middle Eastern imports are cut off overnight, and Iran itself is not wholly reliant on oil exports for basic survival like other oil states (though it’ll certainly hurt the economy if prolonged). There are also certain ways that the blockade can be subverted, like potentially some advanced shadow fleet tactics with the cooperation of allied countries, or, in the long term, the construction of overland oil transportation routes (a significant railway route was constructed in the last few years between Iran and China).
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Families of martyred schoolchildren in Minab sent a letter to Pope Leo XIV, thanking him for his efforts to promote peace and asking him to be the voice of their voiceless children.

https://xcancel.com/teleSURtv/status/2048490499334414641
Cuba has successfully refined its high-density and viscous crude oil for the first time in a successful experimental trial, producing marketable diesel, naphtha, and fuel, thanks to a technology based on thermoconversion, developed by the Center for Petroleum Research (CEINPET). Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel highlighted that this innovation “broke a criterion, a taboo that existed in the country, that national crude could not be refined.”
Here’s an articlethat’s goes into a bit more detail about this development and it’s implications.
President Putin issued a statement today regarding the history of Russian/DPRK allied military cooperation:
“Russian-Korean combat brotherhood has a glorious history. In the final stages of World War II, Soviet troops, together with Korean patriots, liberated your country from Japanese colonial domination, and in the 1950s they helped defend the independence of North Korea in the fight against foreign interventionists. And in our time, when part of the Kursk Region fell under enemy occupation, Pyongyang, for its part, resolutely and without hesitation came to our aid.”
https://t.me/presstv/187318 - cw video of plane crash resulting in death
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/26/brooklyn-park-mn-plane-crash-crystal-airport
Plane crash near Crystal Airport in Brooklyn Park, Minnesota, kills two, including North Dakota state Rep. Liz Conmy.(D/NPL - Fargo)
Leo XIV warned against those who plunder the land and promote wars - Prensa Latina
Article
Vatican City, April 26 (Prensa Latina) Pope Leo XIV warned today about the danger posed to humanity and the world by those who, like thieves, plunder the earth’s resources and wage bloody wars.
During the Regina Caeli prayer, delivered at noon this Sunday from the window of his study in the Vatican Apostolic Palace, before thousands of people gathered in St. Peter’s Square, the pontiff referred to those thieves who “can take many forms” and “stifle our freedom or do not respect our dignity.”
The Bishop of Rome asserted that “there are many thieves, sometimes obvious, sometimes subtle, who enter the fold of the human heart to steal, kill and destroy” and “they deceive us by robbing us of joy and freedom,” with “superficial or consumerist lifestyles, which empty us inwardly.”
The leader of the Catholic Church reiterated the ideas he expressed on April 16 at the Peace Meeting held in Bamenda, Cameroon, when he said that “those who plunder the earth’s resources often invest a large part of the profits in weapons, in a spiral of destabilization and endless death.”
During that event, one of the most important included in the agenda of the 11-day apostolic journey that from the 13th to the 23rd of this month also took him to Algeria, Angola and Equatorial Guinea, Leo XIV condemned those who “subjugate religions and the very name of God to their own military, economic and political interests.”
“The warlords pretend not to know that it only takes an instant to destroy. They feign ignorance of the fact that billions of dollars are needed to kill and devastate, and that the necessary resources to heal, educate, and rebuild are not available,” he asserted, and urged “responses that arise from a culture of peace, not from hatred and division.”
Last Thursday, speaking to reporters on the plane that took him back to Rome after his visit to those African nations, the Pope referred to the war against Iran, launched on February 28 by the United States and Israel, which “has created this chaotic, critical situation” in the world.
In this regard, he stated that “I would like to encourage the continuation of the dialogue for peace, that the parties make every effort to promote peace, eliminate the threat of war, and respect international law,” because “it is essential to protect the innocent.”
This Sunday, Pope Leo XIV referred again to these concepts, stating that we cannot forget “those thieves who, by plundering the resources of the earth, waging bloody wars, or feeding evil in any of its forms, do nothing but rob us of the possibility of a future of peace and serenity.”
Peruvian Election Update
96.00% of the votes counted
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Keiko Fujimori (Far-Right/Fujimorism): 17.07 % +0.01%
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Roberto Sánchez (Left-Wing/Democratic Socialism, this guy is supported by Castillo): 12.04 % -0.01%
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Rafael “Porky” López Aliaga (Far-Right/Incel): 11.89 % =0.00%
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Jorge Nieto (Center-Right/Neoliberal, Nephew of Montesinos): 11.01 % -0.01%
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Ricardo Belmont (Center-Left/This is a Rich TV Owner guy who has ties with the far-left Etnocacerist movement but he’s a SocDem): 10.17 % =0.00%
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Carlos Álvarez (Right-Wing/Zelenskism): 7.89 % =0.00%
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Alfonso López Chau (Center-Left/Social Democratic): 7.33 % =0.00%
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I <3 the media. The status of some live updates pages…
- AP “Today’s live updates have ended.” Back in a few hours - maybe?
- Guardian. Missing without explanation.
- NYT. Missing without explanation.
The New York Post has put up the Trump shooter’s full manifesto. Going to repost here cause their site is brainworm central. Seems to have been written the night before, as he got in by simply staying at the hotel the night before.
spoiler
Hello everybody!
So I may have given a lot of people a surprise today. Let me start off by apologizing to everyone whose trust I abused.
I apologize to my parents for saying I had an interview without specifying it was for “Most Wanted.”
I apologize to my colleagues and students for saying I had a personal emergency (by the time anyone reads this, I probably most certainly DO need to go to the ER, but can hardly call that not a self-inflicted status.)
I apologize to all of the people I traveled next to, all the workers who handled my luggage, and all the other non-targeted people at the hotel who I put in danger simply by being near.
I apologize to everyone who was abused and/or murdered before this, to all those who suffered before I was able to attempt this, to all who may still suffer after, regardless of my success or failure.
I don’t expect forgiveness, but if I could have seen any other way to get this close, I would have taken it. Again, my sincere apologies.
On to why I did any of this:
I am a citizen of the United States of America.
What my representatives do reflects on me.
And I am no longer willing to permit a pedophile,removed, and traitor to coat my hands with his crimes.
(Well, to be completely honest, I was no longer willing a long time ago, but this is the first real opportunity I’ve had to do something about it.)
While I’m discussing this, I’ll also go over my expected rules of engagement (probably in a terrible format, but I’m not military so too bad.)
Administration officials (not including Mr. Patel): they are targets, prioritized from highest-ranking to lowest
Secret Service: they are targets only if necessary, and to be incapacitated non-lethally if possible (aka, I hope they’re wearing body armor because center mass with shotguns messes up people who aren’t
Hotel Security: not targets if at all possible (aka unless they shoot at me)
Capitol Police: same as Hotel Security
National Guard: same as Hotel Security
Hotel Employees: not targets at all
Guests: not targets at all
In order to minimize casualties I will also be using buckshot rather than slugs (less penetration through walls)
I would still go through most everyone here to get to the targets if it were absolutely necessary (on the basis that most people chose to attend a speech by a pedophile,removed, and traitor, and are thus complicit) but I really hope it doesn’t come to that.
Rebuttals to objections:
Objection 1: As a Christian, you should turn the other cheek.
Rebuttal: Turning the other cheek is for when you yourself are oppressed. I’m not the personremovedd in a detention camp. I’m not the fisherman executed without trial. I’m not a schoolkid blown up or a child starved or a teenage girl abused by the many criminals in this administration.
Turning the other cheek when someone else is oppressed is not Christian behavior; it is complicity in the oppressor’s crimes.
Objection 2: This is not a convenient time for you to do this.
Rebuttal: I need whoever thinks this way to take a couple minutes and realize that the world isn’t about them. Do you think that when I see someoneremovedd or murdered or abused, I should walk on by because it would be “inconvenient” for people who aren’t the victim?
This was the best timing and chance of success I could come up with.
Objection 3: You didn’t get them all.
Rebuttal: Gotta start somewhere.
Objection 4: As a half-black, half-white person, you shouldn’t be the one doing this.
Rebuttal: I don’t see anyone else picking up the slack
Objection 5: Yield unto Caesar what is Caesar’s.
Rebuttal: The United States of America are ruled by the law, not by any one or several people. In so far as representatives and judges do not follow the law, no one is required to yield them anything so unlawfully ordered.
I would also like to extend my appreciation to a great many people since I will not be likely to be able to talk with them again (unless the Secret Service is astoundingly incompetent.)
Thank you to my family, both personal and church, for your love over these 31 years.
Thank you to my friends, for your companionship over many years.
Thank you to my colleagues over many jobs, for your positivity and professionalism.
Thank you to my students for your enthusiasm and love of learning.
Thank you to the many acquaintances I’ve met, in person and online, for short interactions and long-term relationships, for your perspectives and inspiration.
Thank you all for everything.
Sincerely,
Cole “coldForce” “Friendly Federal Assassin” Allen
PS: Ok now that all the sappy stuff is done, what the hell is the Secret Service doing? Sorry, gonna rant a bit here and drop the formal tone.
Like, I expected security cameras at every bend, bugged hotel rooms, armed agents every 10 feet, metal detectors out the wazoo.
What I got (who knows, maybe they’re pranking me!) is nothing.
No damn security.
Not in transport.
Not in the hotel.
Not in the event.
Like, the one thing that I immediately noticed walking into the hotel is the sense of arrogance.
I walk in with multiple weapons and not a single person there considers the possibility that I could be a threat.
The security at the event is all outside, focused on protestors and current arrivals, because apparently no one thought about what happens if someone checks in the day before.
Like, this level of incompetence is insane, and I very sincerely hope it’s corrected by the time this country gets actually competent leadership again.
Like, if I was an Iranian agent, instead of an American citizen, I could have brought a damn Ma Deuce in here and no one would have noticed shit.
Actually insane.
Oh and if anyone is curious is how doing something like feels: it’s awful. I want to throw up; I want to cry for all the things I wanted to do and never will, for all the people whose trust this betrays; I experience rage thinking about everything this administration has done.
Can’t really recommend it! Stay in school, kids.
TL;DR: He seems to have been a Christian and a huge lib. Was ready to shoot everyone in the Trump admin except Patel, apparently. From the way he describes the security, it’s kinda embarrassing that he failed.
Also, people are calling it ChatGPT but I think he’s just a redditor lolSamsung Korea:
Samsung workers threaten strike, demand share of $38 billion AI memory windfall
https://www.techspot.com/news/112172-samsung-workers-threaten-strike-demand-share-38-billion.html
So another weekend without a big USIS escalation against Iran. Kind of surprising.
Socialist Candidate Cepeda maintains lead in voting intention in Colombia - Prensa Latina
Article
Bogotá, April 26 (Prensa Latina) The presidential candidate for the progressive movement Historical Pact, Iván Cepeda, remains in the lead in voting intentions in Colombia with 44.3 percent in the first round, according to a poll released today.
According to the Invamer poll, which measured support for the 13 candidates, the far-right Abelardo De la Espriella would obtain 21.5 percent and the Democratic Center party’s candidate, Paloma Valencia, would get 19.8 percent.
The remaining candidates would each obtain less than five percent of the total, and blank votes would account for 4.5 percent.
In a possible second round, which would take place on June 21, Cepeda would lead De la Espriella with 54.6 percent to 42.6 percent and would also beat Valencia with 51.2 percent to 46.6 percent.
According to the survey, 56.5 percent of those surveyed said they would definitely go to the polls on May 31.
The poll also revealed that 47.3 percent of those interviewed approve of the current president, Gustavo Petro’s, administration.
The sample data reveals that 3,800 surveys were applied in 149 municipalities (24 capitals and 125 non-capitals) between April 15 and 24, 2026.
As I continue to see people around here doom about Venezuela (and often based on misinformation, liberal idealist fantasy, and/or plain ignorance) I was looking around and saw this great interview from two months ago with leader from one of the communes: https://youtu.be/L_MKUe2tdLU
He quotes Che, Fidel, Marx, uses the example of Ho Chi Minh, talks about Gramsci and Lenin, talked about using the rage from the US attacks to deepen their revolution towards the ultimate goal of eliminating the bourgeois state, specifically citing vanguardism as a key towards that goal. He even says they have moved beyond the vanguard in the communes because they have integrated the whole community into the movement, they are now communards and no longer have a vanguard.
He says scientific, sociological and materialist analysis is essential. Many here could use a few years of learning what that is and how it works, it is bizarre to see so many self proclaimed leftists incapable of it.
“We had a tactical/military defeat but we are getting political victories. It is like the defeat of Chavez in the insurrection of Feb 4th, 1992, 4-6 years later he turned it into a victory. The military field does not define the political.”
This is the words of someone who has been participating in a revolutionary movement.
To those here that have never struggled for anything, never participated in any movement larger than themselves, this is why you are a doomer who gives up on the movement. You don’t know how to struggle because you haven’t before. Go and participate in the struggle for a few years and you’ll learn why you can’t just give up on everything as soon as it gets tough, or just because one battle was lost.
Edit :just got to a great part in interview where he talks about people spreading the gringo narrative that Venezuela has become a colony of the US (is he on hexbear?!) and talks about how Venezuela has been selling oil since Chavez and that there was a headline back in the day accusing Chavez of secretly meeting with Jimmy Carter and suggesting he was abandoning the revolution. Chavez said something akin to “if I have to go to hell and meet with the Devil himself to secure the peace of Venezuela than must do that.”
Poll casts doubt on neoliberal victory in Peru’s runoff election - Prensa Latina
Article
Lima, April 26 (Prensa Latina) A preliminary poll on preferences for the second round of the Peruvian elections indicates that the winner of the first round, Keiko Fujimori, lacks majority support, 45 days before the runoff election on June 5.
Fujimori reached first place in the elections of April 12, with a precarious majority, 17 percent - due to the large number of candidates (36) and the consequent fragmentation of the electorate - and now awaits the slow and tense vote count between the candidates Roberto Sánchez and Rafael López Aliaga.
The Ipsos-Peru poll showed that, if the runoff election were held immediately, the neoliberal Fujimori, of the Fuerza Popular (FP) party, would tie with 38 percent of the votes with the leftist Roberto Sánchez, of Juntos por el Perú (JP).
According to the polling firm, 17 percent responded that, faced with the dilemma, they would vote blank or spoil their ballot, and seven percent abstained from answering.
If the final were contested between Fujimori and the far-right López Aliaga, the latter would win with just 34 percent and Fujimori would only achieve 31 percent and suffer her fourth failure in the endeavor to govern Peru for five years, which her father did, with an iron fist that she now evokes, for ten years.
Meanwhile, López Aliaga, after the National Elections Board (JNE) rejected his demand for supplementary elections so that those who could not vote on April 12 could vote due to irregularities in the supply of electoral material in 13 polling centers in Lima, which he attributes to an alleged fraud against him, without evidence.
The efforts of the extreme right-winger are not shared by Fujimori, who prefers to remain on the sidelines so as not to affect his campaign, who did close ranks with him to prevent, also with a campaign that invoked a never proven fraud against the rural teacher Pedro Castillo.
Meanwhile, press reports indicate that the president of the JNE, Roberto Burneo, may insist to the other members of the electoral court, who rejected his proposal to heed López Aliaga’s request to call for targeted supplementary elections.
The rejection was based on the lack of time to complete the vote count for the first round and prepare for the runoff election on June 7, among other problems.
López Aliaga has strong media support, but experts and electoral analysts, as well as most parties, criticize the cited errors - for which the head of the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONP), Piero Corvetto, resigned - but rule out fraud.
The media outlets that support him, on the other hand, are developing a McCarthyist campaign like the one in 2021, which could not prevent Castillo’s victory with the support of the left, who was later imprisoned and dismissed for trying to dissolve the parliament that had in turn tried to oust him.
On the other hand, candidate Sánchez declared that he feels confident, like almost all the analysts of the figures, that his access to the runoff is certain and, in addition to traveling to various regions, he has representatives who are in dialogue with social and political organizations for the purpose of reaching an agreement with a view to the second round.
The possibility of the leftist candidate was taken so seriously that when it began to look like he could reach the runoff, the promoters of the recent purchase of F-16 fighter jets from the United States rushed the operation in case Sánchez was elected president and vetoed the acquisition.
This was reported by a high-ranking Air Force officer who was not identified by the newspaper La República.
Could Trump withdraw US support for UK sovereignty of Falklands? - The Guardian
Proposal said to be contained in internal Pentagon email is thought to be bid to punish European countries for failing to assist in war in Iran
Article
The White House is considering punishing European countries that have failed to assist Donald Trump wage his war in Iran, according to an official within the Pentagon. Keir Starmer, once described as “very nice”, is now routinely said by the US president to be a “coward” and “no Churchill”. It is claimed that Trump could go further and withdraw American support for Britain’s sovereignty of the Falkland Islands over which the UK and Argentina went to war in 1982. The proposal is said to be contained in an internal Pentagon email.
The memo’s contents have only been briefed out but it is claimed the White House is looking at how to puncture the Europeans’ “sense of entitlement”. Trump has expressed his frustration at the reluctance or refusal of some Nato allies to grant the US access to bases and overflight rights. One punitive measure being considered is the suspension of Spain from Nato, although it is unclear how this would be achieved. The memo is also reported to include an option to consider reassessing US diplomatic support for longstanding European “imperial possessions”, such as the Falkland Islands, a British overseas territory in the South Atlantic.
The UK’s claim to sovereignty over the Falkland Islands, known in Argentina as Islas Malvinas, is based on the argument that with the “exception of two months of illegal occupation in 1982”, Britain has “continuously, peacefully and effectively inhabited and administered” them since 1833. The British government further claims that it is up to the people of the Falklands to choose their own future and status. The US does not currently take a position on the sovereignty of the islands. According to the US state department, the matter is a bilateral issue between the UK and Argentina. It says: “We encourage both parties to resolve their differences through dialogue in normal diplomatic channels. We recognise de facto United Kingdom administration of the islands but take no position regarding sovereignty.”
Argentina claims that it inherited the Falklands from Spain when it gained independence and that the principle of self-determination is not applicable to the inhabitants of the islands. There are regular attempts by Argentina to gain support for resolutions at the UN which supports its claim. While the US does not take a formal position on the sovereignty, and did seek to find a diplomatic solution at the start of the 1982 conflict, the White House ultimately came to the UK’s aid militarily through the provision of intelligence and advanced missiles when those efforts to find a settlement failed. Since then, the US has helped water down or block resolutions in favour of Argentina’s claim. The Falkland Islands are considered by the UN to be a “non-self-governing territory” and are subject to continuing discussion by the “Special Committee on Decolonization”. The UK has been encouraged to open up negotiations with Argentina, but this has been resisted by the British government on the grounds that the Falklanders have the right to self-determination. Should the US shift to support Argentina, or be vocal about the need for the UK to open talks, the British government would be left isolated.
What is likely to happen?
Nothing. King Charles is on a state visit to the US next week. Trump has appeared utterly enamoured of the British royal family and has said the king’s visit might well “fix” relations after a rocky period. Trump has developed a rapport with Argentina’s president, Javier Milei, who recently reasserted his country’s claim to the islands, but it seems highly unlikely Trump would want to dedicate any time at all – or that of his officials in the UN – on the issue. There are deep security ties between the UK and the US, and such a pivot would be heavily resisted within the system.









