Those who use the bike know this very well: in the city, speeding motorists overtaking other cars, only get one thing: they arrive first to the next red.
With a simple model, the author estimated the probability that one car that overtakes another, will then be reached again at a later red light. Then he estimated the probability that the same thing will happen when there are multiple successive traffic lights, as usual in the cities.
The result is that as fast as an aggressive driver goes, the presence of multiple traffic lights makes it virtually certain that a slower driver will catch up
So, if someone aggressively overcomes you, when you reach him at the next traffic light, you can tell him that it is mathematically proven that he/she is an idiot.
In addition, this study has implications for the 30 km/h city, demonstrating how in urban areas the traffic lights determine the travel times, not the maximum speed reachable between one traffic light and the next.
The original scientific article is here: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article/13/4/260310/481212/The-Voorhees-law-of-traffic-a-stochastic-model
crossposted from: https://poliversity.it/users/rivoluzioneurbanamobilita/statuses/116419204210303856
The options under discussion are pass and not be involved in a wreck or stay behind and wait to be involved in a wreck and somehow the second option is more appealing to you? Yeah no thanks, I’ll pass and avoid it entirely instead of waiting for it to happen, hoping it happens in a predictable & easy-to-avoid way, hoping that every other driver on the road with us is also waiting for it to happen, hoping we all have perfect reaction time, hoping all our cars respond properly, and hoping that road conditions are “ideal.” That’s a lot of luck. If you can predict how and when a bad driver is gonna crash, you go ahead and caravan with them, I know I personally can’t see the future so I’m going to get as far away as I possibly can.
Do you know how to drive behind another vehicle at a safe distance?
Yes I was a mail carrier, I’ve driven professionally. Which means I also know how to most safely and efficiently get to my destination, and neither involve being at the whims of a dangerously negligent idiot going 30 mph slower than the flow of traffic. 🤷♂️
I would rather be behind than in front of a dangerous driver.
There are different kinds of dangerous drivers. The kinds you don’t want behind you are usually either easy to pass and leave far behind or easy to let pass you. My whole premise is based around the first kind, that is driving negligently slower than the flow of traffic. Anyone staying behind them (read: you) would then also be driving negligently. Since they’re, as established, going way too slow, they are very easy to pass and get plenty of distance between without adding an extra hour onto my and every other driver’s commute.
As explained elsewhere in these replies, the biggest fear from being in front of this kind of driver is being directly in front of them and getting rear-ended at a stop when they’re not paying attention, but if I can overtake them, that means I can just stay in a different lane from them and there’s no real concern.
If you leave enough safe space between you and the next vehicle, someone is bound to get into it though.
Now that person is your crumple zone
And you need to show down more to open a safe gap with them