I randomly saw a tweet saying that the USA would run out of oil by April 15. Obviously I have no idea if this is accurate. (The USA currently imports 10% of its oil from West Asia.) But…what if it is accurate? Or what if the USA runs out of oil in a few months instead? Will we see bread riots, a possible revolution, or capitulation to Iran?
I randomly imagined an officers’ coup where the military and some bourgeoisie cut their losses and agree to Iran’s proposals, withdrawing the US military from West Asia, paying reparations for the war and decades of sanctions, and purchasing oil from the region in yuan. In this scenario, the USA continues to exist but is severely weakened, and the ruling class has to figure out how to sell things to China in order to get yuan to purchase oil. It’s basically Neo-Weimar / American Weimar / Weimar USA. “Israel” vanishes and 90%+ of its settler population somehow makes its way back to western countries.
I know this is a wildly optimistic scenario. I’m just spitballing. How do you imagine things shaking out over the next few months?
the USA would run out of oil by April 15
That is not even remotely accurate. The US is the largest producer of oil in the world. Even moreso now that it is stealing the crude from Venezuela.
But the USA doesn’t produce the kind of oil used to make gasoline, and the best case scenario with Venezuela is that they supply less than one percent (about 100,000 barrels) of the USA’s daily petroleum needs (20,000,000 barrels). If Venezuela senses blood in the water, the situation could easily change.
The US mixes is domestic supply with heavier imported crude, namely Canadian. But Venezuelan crude will also work once the infrastructure is built up and running full-steam ahead. The crude flow shortage affects Europe greatly, and many of the smaller Asian countries, far more than it does the US. It tightens the overall supply, but the US is not reliant upon it.
It is far more dangerous for the US that countries are now paying for crude with yuan instead of the dollar. That is the major threat.
Does Canada produce Heavy Crude? I thought Canada had light sweet crude.
I’m pretty sure the Alberta tar sands produce a very heavy crude. I think the fracking/shale produces a light sweet crude
Oh and I forgot, the domino that makes the motherfucking AI bubble pop
- Strait of Hormuz stays closed to the West for a very, very long time.
- Gulf monarchies are brought to their knees and forced to renegotiate their existence with multiple regional great powers. They end up a shell of their former selves.
- Oil stays above $120 per barrel, and at least 20% of it is traded in yuan.
- Lapses in fertilizer supply spark increased emphasis on soil management for agriculture instead of dumping labile nitrogen on fields.
- Lapses in fuel supply accelerate solarization trends, especially in the Global South.
- The aura of invincibility of the USA and Israel is utterly broken. Both their hard power and their soft power take a huge hit.
- People around the world start to take gardening and bicycling a lot more seriously. 100-mile-lifestyle (as in a supply chain less than 100 miles for everything you use) becomes a popular trend.
I think it will just get more expensive, the hogs in amerikkka will be fine, they’ll just pay $5/gallon. The global south will face the brunt of it, but with how many exemptions (Malaysia and the Philippines can pass freely) as well as other countries being able to pay tolls, we’ll see how it plays out.
