Canada holds the upper hand in any canola deal with China

China is desperate for our canola, and Canada has more leverage than we think.

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Canola is Canada’s most valuable crop, generating billions in exports each year. Roughly 90 per cent of what we grow is sold abroad, and China has long been one of the top buyers. That’s why Beijing’s decision to impose a 100 per cent tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal and a 75.8 per cent tariff on canola seed in mid-August has hit farmers so hard.

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Canada doesn’t have to give away the farm to secure a canola deal with China.

China’s ambassador to Canada, Wang Di, says the solution is simple: if Canada drops the EV tariff, China will remove its agricultural tariffs. But Canada may not need to go that far.

China cannot easily replace millions of tonnes of high-quality Canadian seed. Imports from India and Australia don’t match the volume or quality, and Chinese futures markets are already showing strain. If farmers can weather the chill, Canada may have more leverage than expected.

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The stakes are high. Canada’s auto sector still supports about 125,000 direct jobs, and losing more ground would further weaken our manufacturing base.

There are risks, however. Canadians can’t ignore China’s human rights abuses, from the treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang to the crackdown in Hong Kong. And trading dependence on Washington for reliance on Beijing is hardly a cure-all. Any deal must be negotiated from a position of strength, with safeguards to protect Canadian workers and sovereignty.

Which brings us back to canola. China needs it. We’re willing to sell it. But we don’t have to—nor should we—give away the farm.

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