Im Iranian, if Iran doesn’t strike back HARD and immediately go for the bomb, there will be a coup change here by the people for a government that can and will actually protect us. It pisses me off that all these years these ‘reformist’ fools have been trying to play nice with the west that has fucked us decade after decade instead of cozying up with China and getting weapons, defense pacts, and more than just economic deals with them and Russia as well.

It’s 2005, I’m watching a commercial for the new Harry Potter while we destroy the Middle East.

It’s 2015, I’m watching a commercial for the new Harry Potter while we destroy the Middle East.

It’s 2025, I’m watching a commercial for the new Harry Potter while we destroy the Middle East.

Funny seeing that European Leaders who were “strongly decoupling” from America because of “Fascism” are now back to boot licking their masters so that they get to kill innocent people in the middle east as well.

Fuck it, sink the carriers, close the strait, bomb the oil fields. I’m done with this shit. This world isn’t worth saving anyway. Listening to the coverage of this and that speech was the cherry on top. Burn it all down.

Russia at the UN Security Council: Israel is still not a member of the NPT, so full IAEA inspections of Israel are not carried out. Iran is the only country that has accepted the most inspections, but instead of thanking this country, we bomb it, and its civilians are targeted. Unfortunately, the director general of the IAEA has never called for Israel to join the NPT; this situation is fraudulent.

The libs in my life get really angry if you suggest that Harris would have already bombed Iran by now.

Yemen says it will resume targeting US warships in the Red Sea if Washington intervenes militarily in support of Israel against Iran.

In a new statement, the Yemeni Armed Forces warned that any direct US involvement in aggression against Iran would be treated as part of the broader Zionist project to dominate the region—one that has already targeted Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.

Calling Iran a principal obstacle to that plan, the statement reaffirmed Yemen’s readiness to respond to any escalation and declared solidarity with any Arab or Muslim country facing Israeli attacks.

I don’t think this will shift US decision-making out of bombing Iran (that seems inevitable) but I think it’s still pretty significant. Yemen alone was able to tie up a pretty considerable amount of naval resources including interceptor missiles, and I have my doubts that the US will be any more effective than they were last time (that is, not very). Ideally for the Resistance, an aircraft carrier has to be forced to engage with Yemen instead of Iran. In the best case scenario, maybe they even sink one, or more realistically score a notable hit that forces a retreat and months of maintenance.

What an inspiring leadership and population. Yemen will be remembered for centuries for doing so much to help defeat imperialism when they have so little.

Simplicius: Israel Buckles as Iran War Shifts to New Drag-Out Phase

I have full access to this piece as it’s free, and it’s pretty long, so I will once again be summarizing.

• Iran just concluded talks in Geneva with Western representatives and failed to reach a deal as Iran will still not end enrichment, will not end its missile program, and will not negotiate until Israel stops attacking them. Simplicius points out the hypocrisy of the West vis-a-vis Russia (“Russia must end hostilities and withdraw from Ukraine entirely, THEN we can negotiate! Israel, of course, doesn’t need to do the same thing with Iran”).
• Iran keeping to its original aims is encouraging, indicating that they think an attritional war with Israel is likely to work. That they’re bluffing is certainly possible but doesn’t seem probable.
• Iran has been taking significant damage, though with Israel reusing the same videos a lot, it takes a while to properly analyse things. Radar sites have been hit, and there are about 80 verified hits on Iranian ballistic missile launchers.
• Simplicius doesn’t know how many ballistic missiles Iran has (well, nobody except Iran really knows) but agrees it’s somewhere in the low thousands (~3000, maybe more). Some sources claim 1500 have been fired already, while more precise graphs count 500 total launched.
• Iran can produce up to 300 ballistic missiles per month according to Western estimates. As long as Iran fires 10 or less missiles per day, they can keep firing basically indefinitely without wearing down stockpiles for when they’re critically needed (e.g. the US joins the war).
• Israel’s ability to intercept these missiles has been very degraded, so Iran could actually fire even less and achieve the same result. Iran could be thinking that they’ll just fire ~5 per day and slowly build up stockpiles over the course of a long attritional war (months or years), even if they lose a couple missiles every day to Israeli bombing. We are seeing this in practice - that Iran is firing less missiles for the same overall result.
• Iranian senior official Mohsen Rezaee has publically stated that Iran has fired “over 400 missiles” and “over 600 drones” and that “dozens of missiles have hit Israel”, which seems to match the graphs carefully counting up to about ~500 missile launches. On the face of it, this means a ~75% interception rate for Israel, and that’s certainly a valid way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is that many of these missiles were very old missiles that were used to waste interceptors so that more advanced missiles could get through later, and Israel itself is admitting that its interception rate is rapidly falling.
• Rezaee, back in March, stated that they knew that war with Israel is inevitable and was taking precautions. He says Iran’s “missile capabilities” (a delightfully ambiguous word) were ramped up by 5 or 6 times. The most sensible way to interpret “capabilities” is probably “production”. It’s not clear whether this means production has been increased to the Western estimate of 300 per month, or if it’s now substantially higher than that, but regardless, it’s clear that Iran is following Russia’s example, implementing a massive military-industrial campaign which dramatically outproduces the West.
• He also stated that Iran, as a precaution, already removed its most important nuclear program materials to safe locations, so what Israel is currently striking is achieving very little. There are flashy images of precise missile strikes by Israel, but these could very much be striking empty facilities. And even the West admits limited effectiveness overall despite the precision; e.g. at Natanz there’s only damage to electrical components, which could be replaced in mere months.
• Trump delaying might point to a growing doubt that they could even destroy Fordow, but Simplicius admits that his words are hard to interpret given that he similarly lied about extending negotiations just before Israel struck.
• Simplicius regards Israel to be on what is essentially a genocidal ponzi scheme - you start a conflict, it goes badly, and so to distract from it you start a new conflict, which goes badly, and to distract from that you start a new conflict, which goes badly, and so on. This strange strategy matches the rhetoric of some Zionists which apparently want to go for Qatar, Pakistan, and/or Turkey “after Iran”.
• This strategy is now causing very major economic damage to Israel. Some shipping companies, like Maersk, are refusing to go to Haifa, Israel’s only operational deepwater/hub port (as Ashdod is too close to Gaza and Eliat under Red Sea blockade via Yemen). The airports are under lockdown, and Israelis are being forced to remain in the country.
• Notable Israeli strikes on Iran have similarly declined, particularly as Iran is ruthlessly hunting Mossad operatives in a dragnet across the nation and is striking Israeli intelligence sites within Israel itself. The shock phase appears like it may be over, and we may now be in the attritional phase. Only US intervention might save Israel, but given Iran’s options to counter the US both militarily and economically, Trump is right to hesitate if he isn’t merely bluffing.

Yedioth Ahronoth, citing Israeli officials, says that Israel will ‘immediately accept’ a ceasefire if Iran proposes it.

Right on schedule, the Israelis are now saying they’ll accept a ceasefire with Iran if Iran agrees. These strikes were merely the off ramp to allow Israel to exit a disastrous miscalculation. We’ll see if Iran gives them the out, or decides to commit and punish the Israelis and Americans while they have they reeling.

Given the mood of the Iranian people, even if the government wanted a ceasefire I don’t think they can. The time for talk is long past. Israel finally bit off something they can’t chew up.

If I hear one more “it’s an unconstitutional act!!” argument I will scream and lose my fucking mind, whatever is left of it anyways. This is the highest level of argumentation and debate the “US” society is willing to have.

And so what? If the “Constitution” allows for such strikes to be carried out, that would make them okay?

Discussing tHe CoNsTiTuTiOn feels so 1800s, brother it’s a piece of paper that has no value whatsoever when you live in the fucking imperial core lmao. Jesus christ these people are fucking lost and ready to be swallowed whole by fascism. What are they going to do, impeach Adolf Hitler?

Was there a move more telegraphed than the bombing of these facilities? The United States doesn’t bluff nor is it subtle, they are also cheap bastards. They are not moving hundreds of millions of dollars of equipment, fuel, running 100s of man hours, and so on, just to bluff another country into submission. I’m sorry to say. I’d be more shocked if this had not happened and instead they had negotiated a ceasefire.

Congratulations on never getting any future enemies to the negotiating table. They’ve basically shown that negotiating with American diplomats ends in their country getting bombed.

If Zohran Mamdani wins the mayoral election in NYC he must purge the comprador NYPD and appoint loyalists in addition to immediately pursuing the acquisition of nuclear deterrents to preserve the New York People’s’ Revolution.

It is 2003 and America is using non-existant WMDs to start a war in the Middle East

It is 2025 and America is using non-existant WMDs to start a war in the Middle East

It is 2055 and…

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi: ‘The enemy requests for Iran to return to diplomacy are irrelevant now. The door to diplomacy is definitely closed.’