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The world’s least-developed countries have been hit hard [by Tump’s tariffs]: goods exported from Lesotho to the US will be subject to 50% tariffs, Cambodia 49%, and Bangladesh 37%.
These tariffs are momentarily suspended. But they will have dramatic consequences for poverty rates, unemployment, and political stability.
Countries where tariffs will have the most impact, including Bangladesh and Cambodia, risk losing as much as 380,000 jobs. The garment industry will be most affected. The sector employs mostly women, and has been critical to poverty reduction efforts in these countries.
The simultaneous withdrawal of USAID funding will make the impact even more severe.
And unlike larger economies, such as China and the European Union, which will eventually recover, the world’s most fragile developing countries will be set back by years, if not decades.
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Staying open to imports from the world’s poorest countries is line with the EU’s values and commitment to contribute to peace, security, sustainable development, free and fair trade, the eradication of poverty and the protection of human rights, as expressed in the Treaty of Lisbon.
The EU must also step up financial support to LDCs [ Least Developed Countries]. The EU is the world’s largest provider of overseas development assistance. Despite a commitment by EU member states to gradually increase the percentage of ODA going to LDCs, between 1990 and 2022 the share of ODA going to LDCs dropped from 52% to 19%.
A large amount of these funds are being repurposed and reallocated to support investments in the context of the EU’s Global Gateway to prioritise transformational green and digital infrastructure investments in third countries.
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It is in the EU’s self-interest to fill this vacuum, positioning itself as a reliable and alternative partner to both the US and China, thus reinforcing its global relevance.
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Closer ties between the EU (and other economically developed blocs and countries) and ‘poorer countries’ are almost certain imho given the macroeconomic developments. The emerging market and developing economies’ share of the world’s GDP -based on Purchasing Power Parity according to the International Monetary Fund- rose from 35% in 1980 to 40% in 2000, and it now stands at +60% in 2025 while projected to increase further.
A second major point is the population growth. In Africa, for example, the working-age population (people aged 20-64 years) will almost double from 880 million now to 1.6 billion in 2050, according to the UN. This means that in 2050, 1 in 4 working people across the globe will be African.
It seems that emerging economies are about to face a similar ‘double-growth’ like the Europeans had in the decades after World War II: growth of the economy and growth of the population.
This could be an opportunity for these countries not only to strive economically but also to develop more democratic structures. As we have seen in research, as societies modernize, their ideological divides shift away from economic struggles towards debates over personal freedoms and identity-related issues. So it could be that a collaboration between the EU & allies with these LDCs (Least Developed Countries) is not just for a mutual economic benefit, but eventually also for the preservation of a rules-based world order where universal human rights are an integral part of the economy, which in turn would benefit all sides.
If the EU is ready to protect and further develop its democracies, the bloc could indeed be a more reliable alternative to the current governments of the U.S. and China. If the EU acts accordingly (and there are signs that it does imho), Mr. Trump’s politics could then even be the go-ahead for a more equal world order - supposedly the exact opposite of what he is aiming at.
But I say “if” and “could” and, of course, don’t know how it’ll develop. Maybe I am on the wrong track.
The goodwill generated by this would last for generations. Too bad about half of the EU is flirting with the extreme right, so this’ll be a tough sell.
I agree but I think half is a low estimate, it feels like almost every single EU country is at the very least center right “liberal” at the moment.
The question is, where do you get the money? Most EU countries are already over leveraged, and doing EU wide debt emitting is useless unless the EU is able to tax stuff at the federal level