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Cake day: January 29th, 2025

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  • “China’s charm offensive—no matter how timely given Trump’s aggression against the EU—should be ignored,” argues Alicia García Herrero of Natixis, an investment bank. Profit margins are razor thin, foreign companies are at a disadvantage and anyone hoping to transfer technology from China to Europe will do so in vain, cautions Ms García Herrero.

    Ms. Herrero speaks wise words imho. This is what we have been observing for a long time now, and it is once again confirmed just recently in a survey published by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. I can’t think of a non-Western company that has been successful on the Chinese market in the long-term, because foreign companies are at a strong disadvantage for a huge variety of political (not commercial or technological) reasons.

    But, as the article reads at the end:

    America and China are not the only options available to European businesses.

    Good.






  • As someone who knows very little about Hungarian media, I found that article very interesting on Hungary’s independent media — ‘A battle of the wills, but worth the struggle’

    [Hungary PM] Orbán is often accused of having installed an Orwellian system in which his government controls the majority of the media landscape. But taking over control of the media wasn’t done overnight. It involved weakening of oversight bodies, such as the Constitutional Court and the Ombudsman’s office, and manipulating market resources. Take, for example, Heinrich Pecina, an Austrian businessman with Fidesz ties, who acquired major Hungarian media assets in 2014, including the opposition newspaper Népszabadság, which was then controversially shut down in 2016 after it published investigations into government corruption. But it was in 2018, with the creation of KESMA, a media conglomerate controlling over 470 outlets, when Orbán further consolidated media control in the country …

    Behind the scenes, Hungary’s advertising market has also been skewed by political interference, with state funds funnelled to pro-government outlets. For example, in 2018, the pro-government broadcaster TV2 received 67 percent of state advertising in the broadcast sector, whereas the independent RTL Klub, with a similar reach, got just one percent, according to a report from the European Centre for Press and Media Freedom.

    "The advertising market is completely distorted. The state is the biggest advertiser and they only advertise in what they consider to be friendly places,” explains Kárpáti, arguing that some advertisers don’t even dare advertise in independent papers for fear of being “blacklisted” by the state.

    [Independent] outlets like 24.hu and Magyar Hang have shifted toward a subscription model — although they still rely heavily on advertising and sales …

    Addition:

    Hungary ranks 68 (out of 180 countries, and down from no 40 a decade ago) in Reporters Without Borders 2025 Press Freedom Index.

    Described as a predator of press freedom by RSF, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has built a true media empire subject to his party’s orders. While independent media outlets hold significant market positions, they are subject to political, economic, and regulatory pressures.


  • European-Chinese collaboration in academia is another area that has been becoming increasingly sensitive in recent years.

    Guardians of Knowledge: Why the EU’s New Research Security Approach Puts European Universities in a Bind – [March 2024]

    … Ten years ago, the EU (as well as its member states and many other states across the globe) was advocating for greater research cooperation with all countries, including China. Global academic engagement was an indirect way of increasing the EU’s diplomatic clout …

    However, the rise of [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping and his authoritarian, inward-looking governance model led to gradual shift in the EU-China relationship, including in R&I. The final acknowledgement of this development came from von der Leyen Commission in the Strategic Outlook on China in 2019. The EU DG RTD, then led by Commissioner Maria Gabriel, coined a new strategy – “Global Approach” – which recalibrated the openness in R&I to be “as open as possible, as closed as necessary." …

    The current Chinese leadership is tightening organizational control over universities, reducing their autonomy, dictating top-down research topics that it deems crucial for China’s national security, and excluding those considered harmful to the CCP’s official narrative. Aiming for technological sovereignty, the CCP also seeks global influence, standard-setting, and norm-shaping abroad, including in science and higher education. Chinese laws and regulations on espionage, military-civil integration and Party-academia integration, involve all ministries, universities and academies of science, and outline plans to increase Chinese influence in academia abroad while achieving “China-style modernization” at home …

    Dealing with China necessitates structural changes in how universities organize collaborative research, meaning that any new regulations, however urgent, will take years to take effect …


  • The ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) (ACLED), an initiative that collects and then analyzes disaggregated data, recently published a report on suspected Russian sabotage activities in Europe aiming to undermine the support for Ukraine. It lists 190 incidents that inflicted physical damage and caused significant disruption, from cyberattacks to arson attacks.

    … ACLED data show that more than half of all suspicious events since February 2022 occurred in 2024. Around 35% of these events were sabotage, and another 27% were unauthorized drone overflights. During the year, Russia’s steamroller offensive secured only incremental gains in Ukraine but incurred staggering losses of personnel …

    Between March and May 2024, suspected Belarusian and Ukrainian recruits of Russian agents set ablaze three warehouses in Lithuania, Spain, and the UK, as well as a shopping mall in Poland. In July, three explosions involving flammable parcels occurred at warehouses in Germany, Poland, and the UK, with a fourth attempt foiled …

    Even if the worst fears may prove overblown, European countries will have to reckon with the need to invest in efforts to foil sabotage attempts on both land and at sea and protect critical infrastructure. With the US apparently disengaging from the region and viewing Russia as less of a threat,48 Europe may have to make do without the US intelligence and law enforcement support that helped foil the excesses of suspected Russian activity, such as assassination attempts and flammable parcels onboard planes. Europe may not have much time to prepare for another possible wave of Russian attempts to test its resolve to stand by Ukraine and ultimately defend itself.