My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
As many predicted quite early on in this conflict, the US simply does not have the stockpiles nor production lines to maintain the firing rates we saw in March and April. There’s at least five strictly military problems:
-
Not enough interceptors to shoot down Iranian missiles, and many missiles get through regardless. This includes a dearth of interceptors in the Zionist entity proper.
-
Not enough stand-off munitions to cause a real breakdown of Iran’s military and society. There’s enough left in the submarines and in whatever stockpiles they have mustered to give one last very serious barrage before they’re just completely out (unless they start taking all their missiles out of the Pacific and Europe), but even if this is done, this shock and awe failed the first time around, and the missile cities have proven impregnable to Western military technology.
-
Not enough penetration of Iranian airspace to allow a transition from stand-off bombs to their near-endless supply of glide/gravity bombs. On the edges of Iranian territory it can be possible, but doing so any further inside causes exponential risk to the bombers. Notably, Reaper drones can carry JDAMs, hence why they continue to be used so much despite how often they’re getting shot down.
-
Not enough naval power to reopen Hormuz. Otherwise, the US could hypothetically wait out Iran and exert economic and covert pressure to encourage political collapse; with Hormuz in Iran’s hands, the US’s delaying tactics favor Iran instead.
-
Not enough functioning and safe bases from which to launch counterattacks. Due to debasification (a word that has now spread far and wide after Amerikanet’s coining, lol), the US has been pushed back away from the Gulf. This dangerously overpopulates rear bases with planes and makes it so sortie rates are reduced due to how much distance you have to travel and how many refuelers you need per bomber.
No angry proclamations, media offensives, or tacky AI image posts can change this reality, and boy is Trump putting out a lot of that last one. This is why, after the two weeks of attacks we just saw, we see the US very reticent to try and escalate further, and Trump’s threat over last weekend to really start bombing Iran did not occur. This is being reflected in the US media, with several worried articles talking about how there just aren’t enough missiles to keep the conflict going much longer. One of the only options left is to use ground/special forces to do… something, though pretty much no matter what target he selects, it’s hard to imagine it breaking Iran, or doing much to end the conflict, or even being a successful operation past the point where you’ve landed troops somewhere. We saw the “pilot rescue” (uranium heist) operation fail and aborted before the forces could even step foot off the runway they landed on.
It is into this environment that Ansarallah has suddenly declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia - an architect of the blockade of Yemen and one of the major causes of the country’s internal divisions between Ansarallah and comprador groups - and is turning their ships around at the entrance to the Red Sea, thereby cutting off a good chunk of the Saudi’s remaining oil exports. Ansarallah has proven they were not interested in some cautious, gradual climb up the escalation ladder; when the Saudis hit a couple Yemeni port facilities, they went ahead and hit Jazan and Yanbu so hard that the fires were still raging a day or two after the initial strikes. The US is apparently asking for the MoU back, and this time with Ansarallah also placated, but it appears Iran is much less interested in the MoU now after it was thoroughly violated by the US the first time - and if it does return to it, it might have much more hardline demands.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Chad says will withdraw from the International Criminal Court
According to a statement on the foreign minister’s official website last week, the decision to quit the ICC follows a request by the United States, which has called for the dismantling of the court and issued sanctions against people associated with it.
Moroccan authorities are deliberately urging Moroccans to pour into the Spanish city of Ceuta. Thousands are being transported by trucks across the border.
- Middle East Spectator
Anyway, I was searching to see why the US is suddenly angry about Nicaragua since 2021. And it’s probably related to China investing money there, and then Biden fucking up the Agreement the US goverment had with the Sandinistas.
But I found out something about the former dictators of Nicaragua, the Somoza Family;
Anastasia Somoza (born 1983 or 1984) is an American disability rights advocate and a descendant of the Somoza ruling family of Nicaragua.
Born with cerebral palsy and spastic quadriplegia, she became involved in advocacy in a 1993 televised townhall with United States president Bill Clinton.
Somoza spoke at the 2016 Democratic National Convention and in 2018 was appointed the first liaison to the disability community for the New York City Council.
In 2024, she was the disability engagement director for Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign.
Her father Gerardo immigrated from Nicaragua with his mother when he was 12; he is the son and grandson, respectively, of Nicaraguan presidents Luis Somoza Debayle and Anastasio Somoza García.
Somoza interned for Hillary Clinton in the United States Senate and worked on her 2000 Senate campaign. Somoza spoke at the Democratic National Convention in 2016.
She received a standing ovation and her speech later appeared in a Clinton campaign ad, contrasting her comments with Trump’s attack.
Somoza was then working for the disability organization the Shield Institute, and served as a campaign surrogate for the 2016 Hillary Clinton presidential campaign. In 2018, she was appointed by New York City Council Speaker Corey Johnson to be the first liaison to the disability community for the council.
Love to see the Democrats working with the Family that killed hundreds of people and stole an entire country for decades.
About 49,000 migrants have crossed into Spain’s North African territory of Ceuta from Morocco in the last 24 hours via land and sea, BBC reports. At least 18 people have died while trying to reach the territory. That’s an invasion. The Spanish government must take strong measures against this plot, which is most likely backed by the Zionist-affiliated Morrocan government. This is not about borders, land, or history; it’s about the people that live there and have lived there for hundreds of years now. Their lives are being uprooted, their families threatened, and their stores looted. Unacceptable.
- Middle East Spectator
Hamas full statement on disarmament:
‘Hamas and the Palestinian factions have dealt responsibly and positively with the negotiation process and the mediators’ proposals to complete the implementation of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement.
This was done with a national consensus among the Palestinian factions, reflecting a spirit of partnership and responsibility, stemming from our commitment to protecting our people, meeting their humanitarian needs, and safeguarding their national rights.
The occupation’s commitment to halting the killing and ending its aggression is the fundamental prerequisite and the first step towards its implementation. This includes establishing a framework and timetable for what has been agreed upon. It is emphasized that the implementation of the second phase of the agreement is contingent upon the occupation’s commitment to implementing all the provisions of the first phase.
The inclusion of the issue of heavy weapons within the framework of the agreement is linked to and conditional upon a complete cessation of all forms of aggression, withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, achieving recovery, the entry of the Administrative Committee, the deployment of international protection forces, the disbanding of armed gangs and militias formed by the occupation, reconstruction, guaranteeing the right to self-determination, the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, and the protection of citizens’ rights.
Hamas and the Palestinian factions extend their greetings and appreciation to our steadfast people in the Gaza Strip, and affirm their commitment to continuing to work together on this path for the sake of our people and to safeguard their rights.‘
- Middle East Spectator
Saudi Arabia announces maritime defence alliance to secure vital waterways
Fourteen Nations including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait, Bangladesh, Djibouti, Somalia, (Puppet) Yemen, Sudan, and the Comoros sign treaty establishing the Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance to ensure the freedom of navigation through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden.
Some more info is emerging about possible damage at the Saudi big boy refinery (crude stabilization facility). ARAMCO is a public company but they haven’t issued any statements about it.
OSINT analyst Ali (@MerruX) said fresh Copernicus imagery shows burn scars and damage across multiple areas of the plant, beyond the crude-processing tanks identified earlier, and assessed it will likely be offline “for a while.”
His read follows earlier imagery analyses by accounts including Egypt’s Intel Observer and Soar, which reported burn scars and destroyed processing units at Abqaiq. High-resolution satellite imagery analyzed by organizations like the Associated Press, Planet Labs, and the European Union’s Sentinel-2 reveals clear burn scars surrounding degassing pressure vessels and active flaring at the plant.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko shared his thoughts on the US and China:
“Thanks to Donald Trump. He is a more open politician, perhaps even excessively open. Now we understand what US policy toward other countries is really about. Do you now understand what they wanted from us? Oil, money… If there is no oil, they bomb. He openly says that he has no real interest in Venezuela itself, only in its oil. I understood this long ago, but I could not say it publicly,” Lukashenko said during a meeting in Brest.
As an example of a wise and pragmatic model of national development, Lukashenko pointed to China, noting that, unlike the post-Soviet states, it had continued to strengthen the Communist Party and its system of governance. The Belarusian president placed particular emphasis on the role of Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying that he had successfully combined the experience of the past with the demands of the present to achieve tangible results.
“The Chinese acted with remarkable wisdom. We need to study their experience because it produces results,” Belarusian presidential press service quoted Lukashenko as saying.
Some footage of recent IRGC ballistic missile launches at US imperialist military bases in West Asia:
https://s1.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/kut.mp4
Pictured: Blue check Germans* getting mad that Soviet deep battle doctrine is still clowning on Nazis nearly a century later.
Choke on dialectical materialism, nerds.
* The continental Europeans, not the colonial fascists of the Levant
Saudis to launch sea and possible ground invasion of Yemen
BREAKING | Mutiny erupts at Sde Teiman as dozens of Israeli soldiers abandon facility
• According to Maariv, dozens of soldiers from the Tzabar Battalion of the Givati Brigade laid down their weapons and left Sde Teiman Base and torture facility after a dispute with their battalion commander over new disciplinary measures and the removal of longstanding battalion traditions.
• The mass walkout has rendered the battalion combat ineffective, with military officials describing the incident as highly unusual.
• Ynet reported that the soldiers left the base without authorization after protesting their commanders’ decision to remove signs and symbols they had displayed, and were filmed leaving while chanting an obscene slogan directed at their officers. Videos of the incident quickly circulated online.
• The inhumane Sde Teiman detention camp is an Israeli military base in the Negev (Al-Naqab) desert known for the severe physical abuse, medical neglect, and documented incidents of sexual assault andremoved against Palestinian detainees.
Hundreds of Jordanian political, legal, and public figures have signed an open letter demanding the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Jordan They call the American presence a security, political, and economic risk pulling the country into a war it wants no part of. Most Jordanian outlets refuse to publish the letter, and organizers warn signatories could be jailed. – New York Times
