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SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]

@ SeventyTwoTrillion @hexbear.net

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201
Joined
4 yr. ago

"Crises teasingly hold out the possibility of dramatic reversals only to be followed by surreal continuity as the old order cadaverously fights back."

  • Ideally there would be a synthesis of the hardliner approach to Israel and the West but the reformist approach to social issues, plus a willingness for, if not outright socialism (given Iran's anti-communist history that seems totally implausible in the short-term) then at least a strengthened capitalist-based command economy. The reformists will destroy Iran by not sufficiently opposing Israel, while the hardliners will destroy Iran by being too repressive internally on issues that simply don't need to be repressed even under an Israeli siege and propaganda warfare situation. But of course, it's not as if the government merely dictates these opinions from on high, there must be many factions based on social and economic classes pulling one way or another, so even a hypothetical coup by a hypothetical "synthesis party" wouldn't ameliorate the contradictions in the short term.

    If the war continues then Iran might - might - manage to win anyway, but I'm really getting the impression that in Iran, the left arm doesn't know what the right arm is doing. This goes beyond the standard messaging issues where you promise some overwhelming once-in-a-century response and then little happens; even Pezeshkian himself admitted a while ago that he doesn't always know what's going on.

  • "the Chinese Communist Party are traitors, only Shia theocracy has the will to do what is necessary"

    The argument was that Iran was the only country with the ability to defeat Israel, and such a defeat would be very beneficial not only in a humanitarian sense but also in the geopolitical strategic sense of reducing American influence in the Middle East, and so China should do anything they possibly could to help Iran achieve it. But now I know that it wasn't China's fault for not trying to help, but Iran's fault for not accepting any. On October 8th 2023 at the absolute latest they should have knocked on the doors of Russia and China and gone "We think it's possible that Israel will go berserk and start a regional war and that will include us, we want to sign economic deals, we want to sign military deals. If you can't do much officially due to the sanctions regime then we'll accept covert help, plus we'll be gearing up our nation for this eventuality and doing intelligence sweeps and dragnets that we should have done earlier and at a greater intensity when Soleimani was assassinated, plus getting reforms ready" but because of the internal contradictions of the Iranian political class, I suppose that just wasn't possible. They just didn't have the existential sense of urgency required until it was too late and Hezbollah was pacified. I remember Iran going around talking to the leaders of Gulf states trying to get an embargo on Israel early on but that was pointless, they would have never broke off trade with Israel.

    Ironically now, the Middle East might be the strongest holdout of the US going forward. I expected that the approximate series of American imperial collapse would be Middle East -> Africa -> Asia -> Europe -> South America but maybe Israel will still be putting people in concentration camps well past the mid-century. With the benefit of hindsight, that the US would spend inordinate effort to protect the world's oil supply was predictable, but the Resistance was just much stronger back in late 2023 and we weren't aware that their efforts would be squandered due to an ineffective and infiltrated Iranian leadership, so Israel's defeat in the short term seemed plausible even if a little unlikely.

  • This conflict has taught me: do not "trust the plans" of countries/territories that aren't controlled by Marxists (Ansarallah and Hamas get an exception, you don't survive that long under those conditions without your government having great competence). Every time I've been like "Well, they wouldn't be stupid enough to do THAT" it turns out they are, indeed, stupid enough to do that

  • 100%. Iran hasn't yet lost, but Israel will try and achieve through "peace" what it cannot achieve through war. It will work to destabilize Iran, smuggle weapons in, and probably continue terror attacks regardless of any ceasefire. Now we might be in the most dangerous phase yet.

  • apologies Xi, I will now trust the plan

    edit: this is in response to my (and others', but definitely my) pessimism and lack of understanding about why China isn't helping out Iran, but now I understand: it genuinely wasn't China's fault

  • A genuinely fascinating part of this conflict is that organizational military and economic power has been inversely proportional to the time it takes for those organizations to cry uncle

    Hamas is the least well-armed and well-equipped and yet has been fighting for nearly two years straight with only intermittent breaks

    Ansarallah, which might be more well-equipped than Hezbollah but less able to use all their power due to the distance, joined a couple months after the conflict began and has been fighting up to this very day

    Hezbollah had tens of thousands of missiles and was brought to ceasefire in about a year

    Iran is a giant state with (more or less) full sovereignty over its entire territory and with massive military production and (if the ceasefire rumor is true, which it maybe might not be? idk?) was brought to ceasefire in like, two weeks

  • You really don't want your president to be saying that he has no idea what's going on, generally not a good sign

  • However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.

    What the fuck is wrong with Iranian politicians? Why would the time at which the attack stops matter more to the response than the casualties and damage you endured during that attack?

    You should be in prison for saying this. Purged. Gone.

  • Let's assume Trump is totally making shit up and trying to will a ceasefire into reality purely based on the power of his own words and it fails - what does that imply? That if Iran is seen "breaking" this totally invented ceasefire that something will happen? Will that "something* be some big escalation, like Israel assassinating Khamenei or something? Will it be the US announcing that they have to step back in again? That this comes right after Al Udeid is suspicious.

  • If true then Hamas and Ansarallah are shackled to a corpse

  • If true, then Iran is genuinely fucking insane. I said a week or so ago that I was becoming a China sceptic, and now I'm slingshotting the other direction. Sorry for doubting you President Xi, I can see why you aren't doing much to help a government that changes its entire foreign policy every two weeks.

    I'm not gonna toot my own horn and be like "I saw this coming!" (especially because I'll look stupid if a ceasefire doesn't happen or it doesn't last and then Israel and Iran go back to war with each other) but I'll admit that I have had Bad Vibes™ ever since I saw the Iranian statements on the attack on Al Udeid and realized that had the exact same wording as their statements on Israel, y'know, along the lines of "We will severely punish the aggressors, they will regret ever touching us, there will be no aggression on us, we will re-establish deterrence," and I knew that that attack was just kayfabe, I was like, oh god. This is just corporate statement wording but with Iranian military statements.

    An Iranian general probably gets insulted by somebody at a cafe or something and then they go "You shall never know peace on this earth, I will begin Operation Unending Justice to crush you and your collaborators, this is a duel to the death..." and then the guy says "Woah, sorry dude," and then the general goes "Ah sure, I forgive you," and then leaves.

    I am anxiously waiting and hoping that Iran isn't going to do something incredibly idiotic, but after the last two years I can't instantly dismiss them committing some great error that gets a lot of people killed for no real reason.

  • if the US doesn't attack Iran after this AND Iran doesn't just immediately sign a ceasefire with Israel and commits to a war of attrition and pressure that forces Israel to stop the genocide, then this was a great strategic play by Iran

    if the US does attack Iran after this then Iran has been pretty much objectively outplayed

    if Iran decides to make peace with Israel after this then I suppose we'll be waiting for the war to resume in 10-20 years with a few million dead Palestinians, Lebanese, and Syrians and just hope that China is an unstoppable juggernaut by then and/or Iran has better leadership with fewer comprador moderates

  • I feel like the last couple weeks have been the exact opposite of this strategy, which is interesting.

    The best way to minimize international opprobrium and maximize support (however, grudging or covert) is to strike only when there is a widespread conviction that the Iranians were given but then rejected a superb offer—one so good that only a regime determined to acquire nuclear weapons and acquire them for the wrong reasons would turn it down. Under those circumstances, the United States (or Israel) could portray its operations as taken in sorrow, not anger, and at least some in the international community would conclude that the Iranians “brought it on themselves” by refusing a very good deal."

    There was no good deal offered by the US and Israel - Iran merely wanted enrichment for civilian uses, as Iran is a big producer of radiopharmaceuticals and wants nuclear energy. 0% enrichment was untenable.

    it would be far more preferable if the United States could cite an Iranian provocation as justification for the airstrikes before launching them. Clearly, the more outrageous, the more deadly, and the more unprovoked the Iranian action, the better off the United States would be.

    This was inverted by Israel launching an entirely unprovoked attack on Iran during a negotiation period, and every Iranian attack has been in response to an Israeli or US attack. There has been no aggression by Iran.

    All this is an environment of watching a genocide committed by Israel is also a massive factor.

  • honestly the best case scenario for Iran

    act like you're totally owned whenever the US strikes an empty site, let Trump go "Nobody can do it better than us! Our bombers, our missiles, our beautiful submarines - they just keep winning! Everybody can see it! Sleepy Biden wouldn't do it, Harris wouldn't do it, only a BRAVE and SMART president like me can do it! IRAN MUST SURRENDER!"

    and every day take out some sensitive site in Israel or knock out a power plant

  • This is basically what I expected given that the base had been evacuated of aircraft days ago.

    This sort of "relationship" between the US and Iran is very odd honestly, off the top of my head I can't think of any other two opposing countries that allow each other to conduct largely symbolic strikes with advance warning on each other. The closest situation that comes to mind is India vs China on the border, but that's just because they're both not really using weapons so it doesn't escalate very far.

  • My version has Chapter 17: Epilogue (2021): The Ending of Super Imperialism

  • at this point it's a humiliation fetish

    all politics is sexual pathology after all

  • To start us off, Simplicius.

    Now, there's a somewhat common trope, particularly among pro-Russia and pro-Resistance commentators, of the "allowed strike"; that is, a military strike that both sides know is about to happen and mutually agree to happening for some reason (usually to save face or allow some diplomatic objective). Unfortunately for somebody like me, who thinks conspiracies along these lines are a form of cope and are usually conveniently unable to be disproved because neither side will admit to it, there are actually recent confirmed cases of this happening, like an Iranian strike on a US facility after they assassinated Soleimani that allowed Iran to save face, or a 2017 Tomahawk strike on the Syrian Shayrat base that just so happened to miss all the important targets and deal little damage.

    You know where I'm going with this - Simplicius posits that the Fordow strike was allowed to occur by the Iranians in order to provide Trump with a way to appease neoconservatives but also exit from a budding forever war. I personally don't think this is the case, but I can't say it's certainly untrue (again, because they do actually sometimes happen). The evidence he suggests:

    • Some sources say that Trump informed Iran that he was about to strike Fordow and that the strikes are intended as a "one-off"
    • Iran didn't even attempt to engage with the B2 force. It's not even as if they tried to hit it and missed, even the US doesn't say that they bravely battled Iranian fighter jets to reach Fordow - Iran did not do anything at all despite having time to prepare and knowing what the US would strike a week in advance. Yemen, with much, much less air defense than Iran even in its current state, posed a more significant threat to B2 bombing raids than Iran did during this bombing raid. There is still basically no evidence that Israel is able to fly directly over Iranian territory due to Iranian air defense, and yet the US could reach central Iran entirely unmolested.
    • It was a relatively small strike, not consisting of enough bunker busters to be sure to destroy the facility.
    • Images of the holes left over show that the bunker busters were not stacked up, which many experts expected would have to be the case to breach the facility - essentially a daisy-chain of destruction down to Fordow.
    • In the days prior, Iran used a bunch of flatbed trucks to seemingly stack dirt into the entrance tunnels, presumably to provide a degree of reinforcement to stop them caving in if they were struck. This feels a little strange to do in any case, but protecting the entrances to a facility that they claim is evacuated and that the US is claiming they will soon obliterate is weird; why would you need to re-enter it if there's nothing left?

    Again, I disagree with the above. I think it's more likely that the US did actually try and destroy Fordow but simply failed, which could have been for a number of reasons, including that they didn't put much real effort into it because they were perhaps aware that Iran had already evacuated the facility of anything important. There are a limited number of these massive bunker busters, after all. No point wasting a dozen of them on empty facilities.

    But anyway, regardless of what happened at Fordow, there's not a lot else to report. The same attritional dynamics are at play here and the ball is in Iran's court, so we'll have to see what they do; perhaps they are waiting for the Iranian visit to Moscow to conclude before making any significant moves.

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