Let me load up Polymarket
Just in time to not spook the market; a black Monday is coming now.
Like clockwork. The weekend warriors clock out in time for futures to open
Oh look, it’s Sunday.
Not holding my breath.
I’m starting to think Iran is benefitting from this fiasco and is intentionally prolonging it this way too if they also keep showing up after the 10th time the US broke their word instead of retaliating hard.
Yeah at this point both sides are pretty clearly just using the idea of a ceasefire to gain advantage over the other one - neither one seems to actually give a shit about stopping the conflict. Its fucking depressing to watch these assholes meme at eachother while meanwhile people continue to die every day.
The first term of the mou is the end of Israel aggression on Lebanon , nobody should tolerate another genocide in the middle east . Iran is fully right to suspend the talks to put pressure on the USA to accept the term. Iran should not allow itself to lose control of the straight because it is the reason why the USA accepted to negotiate in the first place . I am glad Iran is not as naive as you
Right but why does Iran keep showing up to Us-Iran “peace talks” then?
Nobody’s saying Iran should allow itself to lose control of the strait or accept the Lebanese genocide.
Because they still want compensation for the war the usa and israel started without compromising and send a message of weakness pushing the usa and israel to start the war again
You think so?
Iran is playing an incredibly dangerous game, and one that could so easily backfire. Their move with the MOU admittedly looks okay on paper, but it’s predicated on there being rational actors which have yet to materialize. Trump is actively violating congress’s war powers act with his most recent strikes, and Bibi doesn’t give a fuck because he’s
pure evilgoing to prison if the wars ever stop.If Israel doesn’t listen to trump, which seems unlikely to happen though I hope it does, Trump’s only recourse to opening the straight is to restart the war with Iran or go to war with another nuclear power (and one that he’s very ‘loyal’ to). Maybe it will pay off, but from where I’m sitting it was a huge mistake to tie the US and Israel together instead of playing them off one another like the hateful fuckwits they are. If Iran had instead made the opening of the straight dependent on the behavior of israel alone, and allowed the US to back out of a wildly unpopular war that has effectively no domestic support, they would have left themselves room to engage Israel militarily and give Trump a way to both abandon the US’s allies (our favorite thing to do) and signal some limited victory ahead of the midterms. Trump could just sit back then, letting the media cycle forget about the his involvement as everyone shifts focus to the Iran-Lebanon-Israel-Palestine war.
But instead of this, we get… a dickwaving contest, where everyone is constantly sniping at one another, chipping away at the ceasefire and unable to do anything substantive to get what they want because of a badly thought out agreement that sought to humiliate an imbecile more than it did to actually prevent more deaths.
Trump is actively violating congress’s war powers act with his most recent strikes The full scale war did not destroy Iran like the USA and Israel though so those strike is just PR , trump pretending to have control of the situation
If Israel doesn’t listen to trump, which seems unlikely to happen though I hope it does, Trump’s only recourse to opening the straight is to restart the war with Iran or go to war with another nuclear power (and one that he’s very ‘loyal’ to).
If Israel don’t listen to trump then trump should use his power and impose gradual restrictions on Israel. If he doesn’t do that then he is responsible as the weapons and aid suppliers to Israel . If israel want to continue the war then let them go alone and get a good beating from Iran.
But instead of this, we get… a dickwaving contest, where everyone is constantly sniping at one another, chipping away at the ceasefire and unable to do anything substantive to get what they want because of a badly thought out agreement that sought to humiliate an imbecile more than it did to actually prevent more deaths.
No, we got Iran doing everything to keep control of the straight which is the reason why the usa was forced to sign the mou and to stop the full scale war . Iran is doing everything to limit death by prevent the return of the full scale war
If Israel don’t listen to trump then trump should use his power and impose gradual restrictions on Israel.
I mean… sure, that’s technically an option, but not only does that leave the strait closed for an indeterminate amount of time - which is the absolute worst case for Trump - it allows israel to continue its genocides until it’s own resources and other allies run out. From Trump’s perspective it’s a terrible choice - I can’t really fathom why he or Iran would want this. It seems especially unlikely, since it’s counter to what Trump’s currently doing (is fucking up the MOU so he can restart the war).
Iran is doing everything to limit death by prevent the return of the full scale war
I’m curious why you think their actions are going to prevent the return of full-scale war. That’s a take that to my eye very much does not align with their behavior, as they have consistently risen to every provocation.
The reason why Israel is getting away with genocides is the lack of real restrictions on Israel, not the opposite. Even with USA support, Israel still struggles with Lebanon. That’s why Israel is trying to make the useless Lebanese army take care of Hezbollah.
Iran’s control of the strait is what stopped the full-scale war and why Trump can’t return to it. That’s why the USA is trying to create an alternative route so it can go back to it while Iran shot the tanker to prevent the alternate route and prevent it. No full-scale war means less death.
while Iran shot the tanker to prevent the alternate route and prevent it
“To save the MOU, you must be prepared to kill the MOU!”
The reason why Israel is getting away with genocides is the lack of real restrictions on Israel, not the opposite.
Yeah totally - I’m not clear on how this disagrees with what I said.
Despite the framework from Friday (which ew does it gargle trump at the end) Israel has predictably not actually stopped blowing up lebanon.
So I don’t really know what if there’s a good takeaway right now, any way it happens it sure seems like we’re going to be waiting at least a little while longer before an actual ceasefire happens. But hopefully this shows willing between the US and Iran and tensions will ease, and from there Israel will fall in line - though I’m skeptical of Israel adhering to the terms of their agreement with lebanon given they started violating the terms literally moments after they were done signing it, and with how the occupation of Lebanese territory has been prosecuted so as to make rebuilding almost impossible / recapture almost trivial… We’ll see how it plays out.
They probably don’t want to exhaust their drones and missiles, because even if there is a peace agreement, it’s likely Israel will start bombing them again in a year or two (or sooner). Closing the strait puts enough pressure on the US and the world to force them to back off without using too many munitions.
Why not just take out Israel first. Everyone knows there can’t be any peace in the middle east without that genocide machine dealt with.
I don’t need to walk around in circles, Walk, around in circles, walk around in circles, Walk around in
