maybe, but also consider Tolkien’s intent while writing the scene. the characters, and also therefore the reader, are explicitly questioning how this happened, and how long it’s been going on. Tolkien then gives an explicit date. that date would have been before anyone had noticed it happening, and he has multiple characters independently theorize that it may have been happening before anyone realized. do you think those are attempts by Tolkien to mislead the reader or raise unanswered questions about the subtleties of the pipeweed production and delivery timeline, or is it more likely that he’s trying to tell the reader that this has been going on for a while, when the only means he has of communicating with the reader is through characters who are not aware of the information he’s trying to convey? is it more thematically appropriate for Tolkien to make a point about the similarities between pipeweed and wine, or to make a point about how the type of evil he’s portraying is insidious, and can begin to take hold without anybody noticing?