Below is my weekly summary/preamble, spoilered so that you can get down into the comments more easily.
preamble
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a ceasefire that, for weeks, is so obviously about to be broken at any given moment and yet nonetheless continues. So-called Operation Freedom may mark a resumption of hostilities, as the US seems to once again be trying an active role in attempting to take control of the Strait of Hormuz. The initial, ridiculous claim was that the US Navy would itself be escorting ships (i.e. just getting your destroyers sunk for no reason), and as expected, this was just said to try and calm markets. Nonetheless, there is reporting that other military measures may be taken against Iran soon if they continue to keep the Strait closed, so we’ll see how that all goes.
US gas prices at the pump have hit close to record high numbers, and generally the average citizen is growing mightily displeased with Trump, even those in previously safe demographics. Unfortunately, this discontent is not immediately geopolitically relevant - as both parties are staffed from top to bottom with pro-war Zionists with only a small group of exceptions, and third parties will necessarily never be allowed to take power, there is no way for US public discontent to manifest itself in a change of policy. What is more likely to cause changes in policy will be grumbling from American capitalists, of which there are many factions. The fossil fuel capitalists seem perfectly content for this situation to continue indefinitely, with record profits. I imagine the financial sector is pretty nervous, but aren’t currently demanding Trump cease fire - same for the tech industry which has now been engulfed in AI, as the bubble seems to be close to, but not quite, popping. Smaller businesses and agriculture are perhaps the most likely to be crying uncle, but may have limited representation.
Going back to Western Asia, the situation from last week has remained broadly the same. The Zionist tactic in Southern Lebanon appears to essentially be “If we can’t occupy this land, then you won’t be able to, either,” as they are doing their utmost to physically destroy as many towns and villages on the border as possible. Hezbollah’s success at keeping Zionist territorial gains fairly minimal, and the growing onslaught of not only anti-tank guided missiles but also FPV drones causing chaos where the Zionists attempt to hold and advance, have, I believe, partially contributed to Iran not pushing the issue of a comprehensive ceasefire in Lebanon so far as to cause them to feel the need to resume fire on the occupied territories.
The US blockade has truly been a mixed affair. While it’s obviously quite leaky and many Iranian ships are getting through, Naked Capitalism and others have pointed out that it’s not just Iranian ships that are transporting goods, and that there are ~70 Chinese ships with Iranian oil that are much less willing to risk running the blockade. But, once again, the success of the blockade isn’t all that relevant. Iran has experienced periods of a couple years straight without meaningful oil exports and survived, and their extensive land borders make a true siege impossible - goods can and are still pouring into the country, and with Pakistan recently allowing Iranian exports through their border, as well as the Caspian Sea in the north and Iran’s railway link to China, Iranian exports can still leave just fine. Another interesting indication is that China’s government has ordered Chinese businesses to ignore US sanctions against Iranian oil, so we’ll see how that develops. And while the issue of maintaining sufficient public cohesion in the wake of economic suffering is a potential long term problem, we haven’t yet seen any meaningful scenes of public discontent inside Iran. Internal unity appears to be staying at record levels in the face of total war.
Even being as careful as possible to check my own biases, it’s difficult for me to form any other conclusion other than that Iran is winning, and people like Armchair Warlord have even pointed out that American tactical victories have been pretty minimal so far.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
China-based Earth Eye Co, MizarVision, and Changguang Satellite Technology have been sanctioned by the U.S. in recent days over allegedly assisting Iran in this year’s conflict via space-based imagery
Thanks to a ban on Soviet iconography in Germany, the display of any Soviet flags on Liberation day had to be censored
OSINT users found a likely location for the secret Israeli Air Force base in Iraq: US Air Force planes have been flying around an unknown runway in Iraq near the Saudi border.
pics:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/morocco-missing-soldier-body-recovered-lamont-key-african-lion/
Two us soldiers apparently drowned in the ocean in morrocco during a training exercise
pbs.org - Tribally owned gas stations offer cheaper fuel as Iran war drives up prices
Especially in California, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma and Washington state — places with dozens of tribally owned stations, including some in busy travel corridors — tribes exempt from state fuel taxes can sell for much less than competing stations nearby.
A large Victory Day rally was held yesterday in New York, featuring many Soviet flags:
Tianzhou-10 just launched aboard a Long March 7 rocket carrying supplies to the Tiangong Space Station. Included in the cargo is a new EVA suit, new experiments, and supplies to support Shenzhou-23s extended mission.
The Tianzhou cargo spacecraft is the most capable cargo spacecraft currently operating carrying up to 7 tons of cargo. More than 3 times the cargo of a Progress or Cargo Dragon spacecraft.
The long awaited Iranian response to the US response came a few hours ago.
An Iranian official to Al Jazeera: Tehran’s response to the American proposal came in a realistic and positive form. Our response focuses on ending the war in the entire region, especially in Lebanon, and settling disputes with Washington. Our response focuses on the need for a clear and guaranteed mechanism for lifting all forms of sanctions. Our response is based on the country’s supreme interests and the outcomes of our consultations with regional countries. The choice is now in Washington’s hands, and its commitment to political realism will be crucial.
Trump is already raging on Truth Social, looks like the response was the same list of negotiating positions that Iran has been making since the start.
OilPrice - $7 Billion In Perfectly Timed Oil Bets Sparks Insider Trading Fears
Last month, we reported that over $1 billion in “perfectly timed” wagers, spanning both traditional oil futures and digital prediction markets, accurately anticipated major military and diplomatic shifts linked to developments in the Iran-US war minutes before they were publicly announced, raising major suspicion of insider trading. Many suspicious accounts were newly created and only traded on specific Iran-related events with a win rate of up to 93%. Well, the final numbers are in, and the initial report might only have been the tip of the iceberg. While previous reports focused on ~$2.6 billion in front-month crude contracts, a broader analysis by Reuters has revealed that total wagers, including bets on Brent, WTI, European diesel, and U.S. gasoline futures, hit $7 billion. According to an analysis by Reuters, the giant bets were executed in large blocks on four specific days, often 15 to 20 minutes before announcements that triggered double-digit declines in oil prices.
https://xcancel.com/bonzerbarry/status/2053431762689069418
Ynet: Protecting themselves with fishing nets, with the help of donations: "There is no answer to FPV drones”.
The forces are using “fishing nets," which H. claims they obtained independently. “The goal of the ‘fishing nets’ that we use is actually to distance the drone’s impact, so that if it hits me - I won’t be killed, but ‘only’ injured,” he said. “Instead of the army being able to provide us with them - the NCOs are raising funds to buy us some. They post a link to a story they publish, and ask citizens for money so that we can buy life-saving equipment.” "Hezbollah’s combat doctrine is to shoot at us once and then send another drone that targets the rescue force.
oh, a double-tap strike? the same shit the IDF has been doing for years (except, you know, the second tap here still being on military forces, and not on civilian paramedics)? yeah, how does it feel to be on the receiving end now, fuckers?
This adds to the concern, especially for those who rush to treat the wounded and may also be harmed." “This is a life threatening situation and we are helpless against it, we are facing open skies,” said H., expressing frustration.
of, “expressing frustration”, huh
"As fighters, we do not understand how it is possible that the IDF manages to achieve the capabilities of intercepting outside the atmosphere, and in the end, facing explosive drones from Ali Express, the army does not provide a response. The fighters lose limbs in the best case and their lives in the worst case." He also criticized the government’s conduct: “It continues to engage in evasion instead of finding solutions for those who show up time and time again.”
💰 Pentagon Says Iran War Cost $25 Billion. An Economist Says Try Trillions.
The Defense Department’s $25 billion price tag for Operation Epic Fury covers only missiles fired, planes flown, and equipment lost — and little else, University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers argues in a New York Times op-ed published Sunday.
The fuller accounting, he writes, runs into the hundreds of billions, and possibly trillions:
▪️ Geopolitical risk: Fed economists estimate heightened risk of this scale costs roughly $200 billion and leaves a million fewer Americans employed within a year
▪️ Interest rates: With rate cuts now off the table, the Fed’s likely response could cost another $200 billion in lost economic output
▪️ Stock market: Wolfers estimates the war has wiped roughly $3 trillion off S&P 500 valuations. Oil prices could be elevated through 2028.
▪️ Growth: Goldman Sachs projects U.S. GDP growth will be 0.5 percentage points lower — around $400 billion in lost income over two years
▪️ Defense spending: The administration’s 2027 defense budget request is $1.5 trillion — a 40% increase, or roughly $4,000 per American household
Budget Director Russell Vought, asked by Congress for a war cost figure in April, said: “I don’t have a ballpark for you.”
⭕️ Netanyahu Says War “Not Over,” Demands Iran’s Uranium Be Physically Removed
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday the war with Iran is “not over,” telling CBS News’s 60 Minutes that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile must be extracted and its enrichment facilities dismantled before any resolution can be considered complete.
“It’s not over, because there’s still nuclear material — enriched uranium — that has to be taken out of Iran,” Netanyahu said. Asked how, he declined to suggest Israeli forces could be involved in the operation: “You go in, and you take it out,” adding that Trump had expressed a similar view privately: “What President Trump has said to me — ‘I want to go in there.’”
International monitors estimate Iran holds roughly 970 pounds of near-weapons-grade uranium. Netanyahu said U.S.- Israeli operations have “degraded a lot of it,” referring to nuclear sites—adding, “but all that is still there, and there’s work to be done.”
Ali Vaez, Iran Program Director at the International Crisis Group, offered context: Iran possesses that stockpile because Netanyahu torpedoed the JCPOA — the deal that would have barred Iran from accumulating it until 2031. And it is now unaccounted for because Netanyahu launched a war in 2025 that severed IAEA access to Iranian nuclear sites. “The last person anyone should trust for solutions,” Vaez wrote, “is him.”
Hezbollah hit an iron dome launcher, then blew up the occupiers who came to repair it
https://t.me/HezbollahMirror/15650
