Those who use the bike know this very well: in the city, speeding motorists overtaking other cars, only get one thing: they arrive first to the next red.
With a simple model, the author estimated the probability that one car that overtakes another, will then be reached again at a later red light. Then he estimated the probability that the same thing will happen when there are multiple successive traffic lights, as usual in the cities.
The result is that as fast as an aggressive driver goes, the presence of multiple traffic lights makes it virtually certain that a slower driver will catch up
So, if someone aggressively overcomes you, when you reach him at the next traffic light, you can tell him that it is mathematically proven that he/she is an idiot.
In addition, this study has implications for the 30 km/h city, demonstrating how in urban areas the traffic lights determine the travel times, not the maximum speed reachable between one traffic light and the next.
The original scientific article is here: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article/13/4/260310/481212/The-Voorhees-law-of-traffic-a-stochastic-model
crossposted from: https://poliversity.it/users/rivoluzioneurbanamobilita/statuses/116419204210303856
My very spread out city has two roads between its southern suburbs and the city, each is about 30km long
Both only have speed cameras to control speed
So most people drive at what their car tells them is the speed limit, which almost always is 5km/h slow, then a few follow of public safety advice and drive 5km/h under the limit, so actually at -10 and very few have accurate speedometers or GPS that tells them their actual speed and try to travel at the speed limit, and a small number deliberately speeding
Then when we reach the speed cameras the cars going slow all slow more, the speeding cars slow down to well under the limit, and the very few confident drivers try to continue at the limit
Traffic is really smooth and will behaved before the speed cameras, and a hundred metres after them