Mere hours before Trump’s 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan’s government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran’s 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I’ve heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.
In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran’s demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.
A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?
One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it’s been proposed that the US didn’t even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran’s electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran’s 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.
From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Apparently, the nuclear issue was the main sticking point according to Vance. The US demanded a commitment not to build a nuclear bomb, and Iran declined. This is good news, because it means Iran is no longer fucking around and is taking steps to secure their country’s long term future.
Hilarious how just a couple of weeks ago, the US actually had that one demand in the bag in Geneva, but then couldn’t control their bloodthirstiness, and ended up losing all of their leverage.
Edit: Also confirmed by Iranian media: https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/12/3563615/iran-us-talks-end-in-islamabad-us-s-excessive-demands-prevent-common-framework
https://xcancel.com/Osinttechnical/status/2041972446157299817 https://archive.ph/3fFAx
The Trump administration is considering a plan to punish some members of the NATO alliance that he believes were unhelpful to the U.S. and Israel during the Iran war -WSJ
Along with repositioning troops, the plan could involve closing a U.S. base in Spain or Germany.
“punishing” NATO by destroying your own power projection capabilities
these fuckers genuinely think they’re in Europe to protect the Europeans, and not to use their territory for bases. absolutely no understanding of how their own empire even functions
Claudia Sheinbaum is enacting a universal healthcare system with full implementation by the end of 2027. General care starting January 1
https://www.telesurenglish.net/mexico-to-have-universal-access-to-health-services-by-2027/
deleted by creator
https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2042242712246661589
Here’s my best guess at what’s going on right now. Iran and Israel are in a game of diplomatic chicken, each trying to fracture the other’s military coalition. The Israelis want to either continue the broader war or reduce it in scope by forcing the Iranians to abandon Hezbollah. The Iranians are attempting to exert pressure on the US to restrain Israel and withdraw from the war, while trying to isolate Israel internationally.
Much of the commentariat on here is focused on the Iranians ‘revealing their weakness’ by not immediately launching a counterattack on Israel. This doesn’t make much sense to me. The Iranians almost immediately played their strongest non-escalatory card by re-closing the strait. Doing so exerts pressure on the US, not on Israel, which shows the Iranians understand the fundamental reality of the power structure they’re up against. The Israelis can only be stopped by forcing the US to restrain them, or taking huge escalatory steps that have a good chance of leading to Israeli nuclear strikes on Iran (desalination plants, energy infrastructure). The closure of the strait denies Trump any claim to a military victory and compounds the economic damage that’s already inevitable at this point.
Meanwhile, there’s been a flurry of diplomatic activity from Iran. Spain and South Korea are making moves by reopening their embassy in Iran and sending a special envoy to Tehran, respectively. A increasingly long list of countries have made public statements over the past day demanding Lebanon be covered by the ceasefire. Araghchi has been calling everyone in the region over the past 24 hours, and the UAE has publicly condemned the Israeli strikes on Lebanon (very surprising). These are good signs for Iran, which can achieve major gains in Israel’s international isolation by capitalizing on their breaking of the ceasefire.
Even better are the signs of the normalization of relations with the rest of the world. If this continues, it’ll demonstrate how fundamentally effective the Iranian strategy has been in this war. If they can secure broad international recognition of their right to control and impose tolls on passage through the strait, it’ll be a massive victory. The continued closure of the strait, which the Iranians have made clear is the fault of Israel, will drive a wedge into the coalition currently fighting Iran.
The Iranians have made dozens of statements asserting they will not abandon Lebanon. And I don’t think it’s politically tenable (internally) for them to do so even if they wanted to. The Israelis aren’t doing particularly well in their ground war against Hezbollah either.
So we’ll have to wait to see how this plays out. It’s not impossible that the Iranians are in a weakened position, or that they’ll lose their nerve. But I don’t see any reason to assume this is the case as long as the strait remains closed. The current situation is a pressure cooker for the US/Israeli relationship, and the American relationship with the rest of the world. Iranian patience makes sense here.
Even if the US, Israel, and mediators like Pakistan are entirely perfidious and only negotiating in bad faith, the Iranians have potentially enormous diplomatic gains to make here. It would be foolish and premature not to take advantage of the situation just to bomb Israel a day or a week earlier. The Israelis can take more bombing and survive. A full, long-term strategic defeat of Israel is only possible through the destruction of its relationship with the rest of the world, which is well underway.
PM of Spain Pedro Sánchez
Just today, Netanyahu launches his harshest attack against Lebanon since the offensive began.
His contempt for life and international law is intolerable.
It’s time to speak clearly:
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Lebanon must be included in the ceasefire.
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The international community must condemn this new violation of international law.
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The European Union must suspend its Association Agreement with Israel.
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And there must be no impunity for these criminal acts.
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Microsoft just cut-off free Co-Pilot in it’s Office applications (Word, Excel, Outlook, etc). It’s now only available to premium AI users who subscribe. That’s a stark change from their previous position was to shove it in your face and have it auto-fill in things by default. I had to go through all my settings and disable all of it to stop its spam at work.
I’m seeing a trend of AI stuff getting retracted and pulled back. The “Uber model” of losing unlimited money to try and gain 100% marketshare and disrupt the competition of AI is flagging. They can’t keep burning through unlimited money for not enough return forever, at some point it has to give. Especially with energy price hikes, shortages of supplies, west asian data-centers and projects being disrupted or ended.
An insane sequence of events, featuring the Israeli emergency mobile cum extraction field response unit. Apparently, Israelis loosened the rules around sperm retrieval as well!
https://x.com/Seamus_Malek/status/2042609122474926318
Sperm retrieval from corpses has had regulations loosened since October 7th and now civilians can have their sperm retrieved from their corpses with parental authorization without courts being involved.
So basically everyone’s tl;dr hot takes of the ceasefire gets thrown in the trash bin because the West didn’t bother honoring it anyways. A grand total of 2 ships, a Greek ship and a Liberian ship, made it through the strait before the pool got closed again. We are back with the bellum status quo where the US still has air superiorityTM, the Zionist entity still targets civilians because the IOF always gets owned by Hezbollah, Iran still has undisputed control over the strait, China still alternates between drafting useless letters and sending much more useful intel to Iran, GCC countries still express incredulity over being thrown under the bus etc. Literally nothing has changed.
I’m glad I didn’t bother wasting my time typing some massive unhinged rant shitting on the doomers and their terrible analysis lol
https://xcancel.com/bayrakmedya/status/2042494212927545385
In Turkey, a man supportive of Iran placed a photo of Ali Khamenei on the back of his vehicle and, instead of a wiper, attached a model of the Khurramshahr ballistic missile, creating a simulation where the missile appeared to strike images of Netanyahu and Trump with every swipe of the wiper.
https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/2042494193575018496/pu/vid/avc1/576x1024/ZHeaN0vR7ELiweBk.mp4
Trump: “You want to see a stock market go down? Let a couple nuclear bombs be dropped on us or frankly any place else, and then you’ll see a stock market that goes down. So the stock market has not gone very much at all. It’s gone down a little bit. Much less than I thought. And frankly the gas hasn’t gone up as much as I thought.”
got that midas touch https://xcancel.com/Biedersam/status/2043413060954530149JD Vance:
- Converts to Catholicism, publicly rebuked by two consecutive popes
- Nearly loses the Ohio Senate seat in the Biden midterm
- Iran negotiations that somehow resulted in a blockade of a blockade
- Endorses Orban, thus ending his 16-year rule
??? They’ve been doing this for weeks now, did he just find out!?
[edit] “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Watched some local news this morning on TV. They interviewed some Iranian immigrant who came to the US with his family. He was cheering when the US started attacking and bombing Iran but said his enthusiasm faded after they started killing civilians and bombing infrastructure
https://xcancel.com/seld_on/status/2042619181057581232
First train crosses rebuilt Yahyaabad railway bridge in Kashan, central Iran, after it was damaged in a US-Israeli attack on April 7.
I wasn’t expecting to be proven right this quickly. This was only three days ago
