I seriously wonder what it would take. I’m always willing to make a wild guess if I have at least a tiny hunch. But for at least a partially realistic scenario - this time I’m coming up with nada.
I don’t think it’s a likely scenario at the moment either, but if things keep deteriorating then who knows. Maybe starting a nuclear holocaust will be the red line for the military.
I don’t know any American military people now and I’ve never had more than a passing acquaintanceship with anybody in the military. I have no idea or vibe at all what anybody from enlisted people to the generals think of Trump. But Trump is the president and “orders are orders” and I wonder how percentage of the troops are insanely devoted chuds at all levels. People have a bizarre cult-like level of devotion to him. I’ll never understand that. Plus the GOP is Trump’s party and it’s under his thumb.
Ninja edit. I thought I had almost had a simpler scenario. I sautéed some vegetables and while I was cooking them and then as I was eating them in front of my screen I kept waiting for inspiration to find the job. But that didn’t happen.
All I’ve got is something not likely that happens over many months. Trump starts something insane plus not only does he show the injured and dead no respect - he literally does stuff like laugh at them over and over. He could start a ground war that clearly is a meat grinder for troops from the first few hours. This goes on and on for weeks then months. Trump says it’s their duty to die for him. Maybe by next year a coup is an actual possibility.
Given that dollar store templar just fires 8 high ranking generals, I’m guessing the mood in the military is pretty sour. It’s harder to say what the feelings are like at grunt level. I do recall reading how there is a lot of disillusionment after all the forever wars though. And yeah if there’s another Vietnam style meat grinder, that certainly could lead to that sort of an outcome. Incidentally, it turns out that one of the reasons they had to pull out of Vietnam was because the military was getting close to the point of mutiny. A fun thread about it https://web.archive.org/web/20210905142700/https://twitter.com/mmabeuf/status/1322790035935141891
I thought I knew about fragging but the reality is I had no idea it was that bad. The “U.S. Forces in Vietnam” section of the Wikipedia page for fragging has some stuff that’s sobering and/or unintentionally funny.
In the Vietnam War, the threat of fragging caused many officers and NCOs to go armed in rear areas and to change their sleeping arrangements as fragging often consisted of throwing a grenade into a tent where the target was sleeping.
During the Iraq War the American military masterfully controlled the narrative. Concepts like “embedded” became part of pop culture. Very few corpses ever made it on the news. It was an antiseptic war. It was war as a video game. I’m not in the mood to read it now but I’ll definitely read the “The Collapse of the Armed Forces” later. It didn’t occur to me that a full scale invasion of Iran could be like the Vietnam War on steroids.
In other words - due to our digital war - losses, setbacks, fuck-ups are going to known very quickly to the public and to the troops themselves. If there’s such a war - the mood of the public and the troops could sour extremely fast. Footage of captured American troops could be shown on the internet by the end of the day. Iranian footage of an overrun American position indicating a massively humiliating loss will be too.
Trump and Hegseth will actually believe they can create an Iraq War 2.0. That’s not possible for myriad reasons. Plus - of course - they’re foolish, stupid, and delusional. Everything they do will make things even worse.
This might be the first war where the US lost narrative control from the very start. Everybody knew this was an unprovoked war of aggression. Iran masterfully combated US propaganda, and thanks to social media, they actually have reach in the west as well. I get the impression that American propagandists still haven’t really caught up with the whole social media thing. They continue to focus on the traditional media, but nobody under 50 consumes it as their primary source of news anymore. I think there was a lot of shock that they couldn’t control the narrative on Gaza, and haven’t really figured out what to do about it yet.
I think there was a lot of shock that they couldn’t control the narrative on Gaza, and haven’t really figured out what to do about it yet.
I’m surprised that Tiktok hasn’t already become a blatant propaganda tool for the military and for Trump. CNN’s impending sale is interesting too. Once the Ellisons control it - I assume it’s going to become a 24/7 pro-Trump network.
I seriously wonder what it would take. I’m always willing to make a wild guess if I have at least a tiny hunch. But for at least a partially realistic scenario - this time I’m coming up with nada.
I don’t think it’s a likely scenario at the moment either, but if things keep deteriorating then who knows. Maybe starting a nuclear holocaust will be the red line for the military.
I don’t know any American military people now and I’ve never had more than a passing acquaintanceship with anybody in the military. I have no idea or vibe at all what anybody from enlisted people to the generals think of Trump. But Trump is the president and “orders are orders” and I wonder how percentage of the troops are insanely devoted chuds at all levels. People have a bizarre cult-like level of devotion to him. I’ll never understand that. Plus the GOP is Trump’s party and it’s under his thumb.
Ninja edit. I thought I had almost had a simpler scenario. I sautéed some vegetables and while I was cooking them and then as I was eating them in front of my screen I kept waiting for inspiration to find the job. But that didn’t happen.
All I’ve got is something not likely that happens over many months. Trump starts something insane plus not only does he show the injured and dead no respect - he literally does stuff like laugh at them over and over. He could start a ground war that clearly is a meat grinder for troops from the first few hours. This goes on and on for weeks then months. Trump says it’s their duty to die for him. Maybe by next year a coup is an actual possibility.
Given that dollar store templar just fires 8 high ranking generals, I’m guessing the mood in the military is pretty sour. It’s harder to say what the feelings are like at grunt level. I do recall reading how there is a lot of disillusionment after all the forever wars though. And yeah if there’s another Vietnam style meat grinder, that certainly could lead to that sort of an outcome. Incidentally, it turns out that one of the reasons they had to pull out of Vietnam was because the military was getting close to the point of mutiny. A fun thread about it https://web.archive.org/web/20210905142700/https://twitter.com/mmabeuf/status/1322790035935141891
and a bit more info here https://msuweb.montclair.edu/~furrg/Vietnam/heinl.html
Every day I discover a new way our timeline could have gone so much better
I thought I knew about fragging but the reality is I had no idea it was that bad. The “U.S. Forces in Vietnam” section of the Wikipedia page for fragging has some stuff that’s sobering and/or unintentionally funny.
if there’s a full scale invasion of Iran, that could definitely create similar conditions
During the Iraq War the American military masterfully controlled the narrative. Concepts like “embedded” became part of pop culture. Very few corpses ever made it on the news. It was an antiseptic war. It was war as a video game. I’m not in the mood to read it now but I’ll definitely read the “The Collapse of the Armed Forces” later. It didn’t occur to me that a full scale invasion of Iran could be like the Vietnam War on steroids.
In other words - due to our digital war - losses, setbacks, fuck-ups are going to known very quickly to the public and to the troops themselves. If there’s such a war - the mood of the public and the troops could sour extremely fast. Footage of captured American troops could be shown on the internet by the end of the day. Iranian footage of an overrun American position indicating a massively humiliating loss will be too.
Trump and Hegseth will actually believe they can create an Iraq War 2.0. That’s not possible for myriad reasons. Plus - of course - they’re foolish, stupid, and delusional. Everything they do will make things even worse.
This might be the first war where the US lost narrative control from the very start. Everybody knew this was an unprovoked war of aggression. Iran masterfully combated US propaganda, and thanks to social media, they actually have reach in the west as well. I get the impression that American propagandists still haven’t really caught up with the whole social media thing. They continue to focus on the traditional media, but nobody under 50 consumes it as their primary source of news anymore. I think there was a lot of shock that they couldn’t control the narrative on Gaza, and haven’t really figured out what to do about it yet.
I’m surprised that Tiktok hasn’t already become a blatant propaganda tool for the military and for Trump. CNN’s impending sale is interesting too. Once the Ellisons control it - I assume it’s going to become a 24/7 pro-Trump network.