The 2026 disruption is structurally different from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine fertilizer crisis. In 2022, the shock was primarily cost-driven — gas prices rose, production became expensive, but product could still be rerouted. In 2026, the disruption is physical. There are no pipeline or land alternatives capable of moving bulk ammonia and urea volumes out of the Persian Gulf. The product is either there or it isn’t.
I know the writer of the article isn’t the subject matter expert, but he seems to put a LOT of faith in one man’s analysis of the situation.
Farmers are very much used to supply chain disruption and rolling with the punches. (Weather, fluctuating market prices, broken equipment, etc, etc.)
Many alternative fertilization methods exist. (Some might say better alternatives, since they can be domestically sourced.)
I think there’s some really good information here, but I’m not sure that the author fully supported his claim that a worldwide crop disaster is imminent. I guess we get to find out shortly, though!