In a drop that some economists are calling 'worrisome,' Canada’s labour market shed 84,000 jobs in February, one of the sharpest monthly declines seen outside the COVID-19 pandemic.
This doesn’t seem like a logical argument for today.
Unemployment is either a too many workers or too few jobs issue.
Of course both can happen at the same time and that is to a degree what’s happening here.
The most significant shock to the Canadian economy in the past year is the trade war with the United States. This would be the primary reason in 2025 and 2026.
The immigration from years ago exacerbates the issue but Carney’s government has scaled back significantly in the past year.
Youth unemployment is up to 14.1% because cost of living has caused people to delay retirement and automation tends to snap up entry level jobs first.
I would look at this information and blame US trade policy primarily. Then maybe Trudeau for poor planning though doubt he could have anticipated the Canada US relationship turning sour.
Without immigration, Canada’s population is in a state of involution which is considered fairly incompatible with the idea of a growing economy. Canada and many Western countries are extra fucked because of the population skewing towards elderly.
Carney is slowing immigration likely because he’s anticipating Canada’s economy to stagnate or shrink in the short term. He’s not a miracle worker, the best he can likely do is limit the pain from the US’ betrayal but it’s going to be fairly improbable to create a win from the situation.
Housing is a factor. It’s a bit asinine to invite people over when your housing market is a hot mess but Trudeau did it anyways.
Canada is going to need to bolster its housing situation, healthcare system and other social institutions for the betterment of its people but also to be an attractive destination for immigration or risk losing its standing as a middle power (especially with the US no longer in its corner).
Well we had a large demand for workers when inflation was high, because there was a lot of new money supply created via cheap borrowing and QE. That money floods the economy and leads to shortages in labor. It also leads to rising asset prices as things are bid up, housing and gold are a good example.
But as we raise interest rates employment falls, as money supply is sucked from the economy. Now the employment shortage has reverted to the mean. Saying its automation seems silly when we can see the money supply growth, and its doing exactly what it meant to, you sound like Elon Musk trying to shill an LLM.
The people we brought in were less educated, as per the Trudeau himself, hence its not creating new industries or exports. Which is what countries typically due, attracting high skilled immigrants that efficiently increase exports and productivity, and lead to higher per capita standards of living. Which we had the reverse of this, as per capita GDP fell and Caroline rogers is ringing the alarm bells on productivity:
I’m not sure why you’re looking at Canada in isolation when the tariffs introduced by Trump have been the biggest shock to the Canadian economy in the past year. It seems that you really want to attrubute this to immigration / inviting temporary foreign workers (beyond Canada’s capacity) and, while that is a factor, I think Canada having its bestie (who gobbled up 70% of its exports) stab it in the back is a more logical explanation as to why unemployment has rise recently.
Immigration is going to be crucial to Canada’s growth story especially based on current local population trends. Canadian universities like UofT, McGill, UBC have already signed agreements in countries like India to create centers of excellence/innovation campuses in emerging markets with more favorable demographic skews (ie. more young participants in the workforce vs retirees) and it would be ill thought out of Canada to not offer those that attend these transnational education institutions preferable conditions to immigrate to Canada.
Per capita GDP has been falling for a decade. We had the second to last per capita GDP in the 38 countries of the OECD the last decade. Its been a problem long before tariffs.
Mass immigration into a housing shortage benefits who? Definitely not renters or non-asset holders, so what kind of regressive policy is it?
I’d be fine with it if we built the housing and infrastructure first, and there was a real labor shortage caused by more than just inflation.
Ya maybe, if you could stop investment from fleeing Canada; only because it would drastically raise inflation and interest rates, which would make mortgages far more expensive. Of course anyone with a large mortgage would be made poorer.
Yeah you are right, forgot about price ceiling part. Gov should be regulating lots of things compared to the situation now. Though infinite wealth cap is the main solution. It is like joining an online game 1 lvl where many players are 1000000+ lvl. The system itself is unfair and we need 100 lvl max
Well I’d just ask does the aggregation of nominal wealth affect you in any way. If Bill Gates has 800b dollars does that hurt you, is that money being taken from somebody else, even when the money supply grows at 8% because Bill Gates and other rich people dont spend any of it so inflation doesnt rise?
Yes? Redistribution, creating more jobs, social programs, positive effect on mental health. Inflation on what? Lets say meat becomes super expensive. Shop wont be able to extract all this wealth if progressive taxes eats it up then again distribute that and create med facilities, spend that on rnd, education. List goes on.
This doesn’t seem like a logical argument for today.
Unemployment is either a too many workers or too few jobs issue.
Of course both can happen at the same time and that is to a degree what’s happening here.
The most significant shock to the Canadian economy in the past year is the trade war with the United States. This would be the primary reason in 2025 and 2026.
The immigration from years ago exacerbates the issue but Carney’s government has scaled back significantly in the past year.
Youth unemployment is up to 14.1% because cost of living has caused people to delay retirement and automation tends to snap up entry level jobs first.
I would look at this information and blame US trade policy primarily. Then maybe Trudeau for poor planning though doubt he could have anticipated the Canada US relationship turning sour.
Without immigration, Canada’s population is in a state of involution which is considered fairly incompatible with the idea of a growing economy. Canada and many Western countries are extra fucked because of the population skewing towards elderly.
Carney is slowing immigration likely because he’s anticipating Canada’s economy to stagnate or shrink in the short term. He’s not a miracle worker, the best he can likely do is limit the pain from the US’ betrayal but it’s going to be fairly improbable to create a win from the situation.
Housing is a factor. It’s a bit asinine to invite people over when your housing market is a hot mess but Trudeau did it anyways.
Canada is going to need to bolster its housing situation, healthcare system and other social institutions for the betterment of its people but also to be an attractive destination for immigration or risk losing its standing as a middle power (especially with the US no longer in its corner).
Well we had a large demand for workers when inflation was high, because there was a lot of new money supply created via cheap borrowing and QE. That money floods the economy and leads to shortages in labor. It also leads to rising asset prices as things are bid up, housing and gold are a good example.
But as we raise interest rates employment falls, as money supply is sucked from the economy. Now the employment shortage has reverted to the mean. Saying its automation seems silly when we can see the money supply growth, and its doing exactly what it meant to, you sound like Elon Musk trying to shill an LLM.
The people we brought in were less educated, as per the Trudeau himself, hence its not creating new industries or exports. Which is what countries typically due, attracting high skilled immigrants that efficiently increase exports and productivity, and lead to higher per capita standards of living. Which we had the reverse of this, as per capita GDP fell and Caroline rogers is ringing the alarm bells on productivity:
https://www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/politics/canada-to-restrict-low-wage-foreign-workers-consider-lower-immigration-targets/article_7d63ebf2-e016-5bc6-aa16-6aa63b61c562.html
I’m not sure why you’re looking at Canada in isolation when the tariffs introduced by Trump have been the biggest shock to the Canadian economy in the past year. It seems that you really want to attrubute this to immigration / inviting temporary foreign workers (beyond Canada’s capacity) and, while that is a factor, I think Canada having its bestie (who gobbled up 70% of its exports) stab it in the back is a more logical explanation as to why unemployment has rise recently.
Immigration is going to be crucial to Canada’s growth story especially based on current local population trends. Canadian universities like UofT, McGill, UBC have already signed agreements in countries like India to create centers of excellence/innovation campuses in emerging markets with more favorable demographic skews (ie. more young participants in the workforce vs retirees) and it would be ill thought out of Canada to not offer those that attend these transnational education institutions preferable conditions to immigrate to Canada.
Per capita GDP has been falling for a decade. We had the second to last per capita GDP in the 38 countries of the OECD the last decade. Its been a problem long before tariffs.
Mass immigration into a housing shortage benefits who? Definitely not renters or non-asset holders, so what kind of regressive policy is it?
I’d be fine with it if we built the housing and infrastructure first, and there was a real labor shortage caused by more than just inflation.
100% of your problems could have been solved if we had max cap networth and 100% taxes above that cap.
Ya maybe, if you could stop investment from fleeing Canada; only because it would drastically raise inflation and interest rates, which would make mortgages far more expensive. Of course anyone with a large mortgage would be made poorer.
Yeah you are right, forgot about price ceiling part. Gov should be regulating lots of things compared to the situation now. Though infinite wealth cap is the main solution. It is like joining an online game 1 lvl where many players are 1000000+ lvl. The system itself is unfair and we need 100 lvl max
Well I’d just ask does the aggregation of nominal wealth affect you in any way. If Bill Gates has 800b dollars does that hurt you, is that money being taken from somebody else, even when the money supply grows at 8% because Bill Gates and other rich people dont spend any of it so inflation doesnt rise?
Yes? Redistribution, creating more jobs, social programs, positive effect on mental health. Inflation on what? Lets say meat becomes super expensive. Shop wont be able to extract all this wealth if progressive taxes eats it up then again distribute that and create med facilities, spend that on rnd, education. List goes on.