Despite billions of dollars in additional weapons and security assistance that NATO announced this week, allied officials said Ukraine would not be ready to launch a dramatic counteroffensive or retake large swaths of territory from Russia until next year.
Donations of missiles, combat vehicles, ammunition and air defenses from the United States and European countries will take weeks, if not months, to reach the front lines.
Some of the newly committed weapons have not yet been bought or built.
This has been known for some time.
Its also a year where Russia is going all out, sacrificing troops for miniscule gains. Its not the time to attack. Instead, its the time for Ukraine to sit back and defend. With any luck, Ukraine can minimize the Russian gains this year, and next year is the next chance they have (after Russian troops are exhausted) to do something about it.
if they can attack they should at it forces russia to defend their whole line. If they don’t attack russia can leave the line undefended and thus concentrate forces for their attacks.
that is a big if though as ukrain needs to defend their lines.
You need over 3 attackers to counteract 1 defender today.
Any attack, especially in today’s always-connected, drone-scouted, satellite image war, will get counter-attacked / counter-bombarded by artillery, hampering the attacker and giving huge advantages to the defender.
Furthermore, well prepared landmines force attackers into performing tasks (ex: demining), which itself can be detected and reacted upon. (Ex: enemy tanks will always run single-file down a de-mined lane. You can take your time to position anti-tank Javelins, Stuga, or BONUS artillery given the obvious and predictable paths that landmines force).
Russia still outnumbers Ukraine. Having the Russians kill themselves over Ukrainian defenses is the best preparation, as it means there will be fewer defenders next year when Ukraine is ready to attack.
The only problem with the plan is that Russia might have been smart enough to defend and prepare instead. But Ukraine figured out the politics too well (ex: Russia clearly wants Donestk and Luhansk regions this much, and are willing to pay for it in blood). So Ukraine can just sit, defend, and deny Russian control over these regions. Leading to a political loss for Putin while still not having to deal with today’s defense-advantaged technology.
Except that as an attacker you can choose where to attack and prepare to be there faster than the defenders can get people there. so you can attack with 30 where they only have 5 defenders and be gone before reenforcements arrive since they don’t know where you will attack until you start.
military expert tell me the 3:1 ratio comes with a lot of asterisks and ukrain knows those as well.
Satellites, Drones, and Landmines.
Both powers effectively have a Space program. I dunno what intelligence USA is sharing with Ukraine but surely USA’s satellites are part of the deal. Russia also has a space program and can similarly spy on movements from space.
Drones can see troop movements long before they reach the front.
For all other problems, you have landmines. Which slow down attacks and force them to be in single-file behind a landmine clearing machine. Spoiler alert: the attack will follow the path of the landmine clearing machine. Just let the machine finish and wait for the obvious attack, then ambush them.
The issue early in the war was that Ukraine didn’t have sufficient mechanized forces and a lot of Ukrainian fighting was done on foot (or if they were lucky: out of a Toyota pickup truck). Then in 2023, NATO provided significant numbers of tanks, M2 Bradleys and other equipment allowing for maneuver warfare and maneuver defenses.
As long as the Ukrainian defense stays watchful with Satellites, Drones, and Landmines, they always will meet the enemy in an advantage. That’s why the lines are so static. The problem also happened when Russia was on defense and Ukraine was on offense: Ukraine was unable to breakthrough because Russia could just copy this easy defensive strategy.
3-to-1 ratio was needed BEFORE Ukrainian war began. It has become abundantly clear that the new technological weapons have made the ratio worse. There’s some areas where Ukrainian defense can hold at 6-to-1 odds or even 10-to-1 odds. I don’t know what the new generals think of the new math, but everyone agrees that defense is king right now.
Just keep in mind that russians get ~1mil conscripts a year. They can keep feeding their mince machine for a long time to come. Besides massively more support with heavy weapons without restrictions, I am not entirely sure Ukraine can outlast old ussr stockpiles…
Its not people that Russia will run out of, but instead equipment.
Russia moved from T-72 tanks, to T-55 tanks, and now golf-carts and motorcycles. Russia has moved from 152mm artillery and regular thermobaric rockets to heavy mortar. And now that mortar is getting blown up, the Russians are begging the North Koreans for more shells and artillery.
We’re clearly witnessing the degeneration of the entirety of Russian force technology. Meanwhile, F16s are about to join the Ukrainian side as Ukraine gets more and more upgrades.
Once the equipment runs out, then what? No number of Russians on golf-carts / motorcycles will allow for a match vs a Ukrainian M2 Bradley.
Problem is that they still have thousands in storage, even if they are in bad condition, a tank is a tank, it still has its place in war. They still have ifvs and they still have artillery and the biggest indicator is that they are still capturing territory regardless of huge losses.
At the rate of 10-20 tanks a day, you are still looking at 300-150 days before they start running out of stored ones, not counting that they are manufacturing some amount monthly. But battle lines don’t lie. They are still moving in the wrong direction. I don’t like it and wish Ukraine could retake those territories but russians are far from wasted no matter how much we all wish that they were.
Its a very bad mistake to underestimate your opponent and assume that some magic wonder weapon will suddenly tip the scale of war. The only thing that will do this is increased supply of western arms and removal of the absolutely insane rules of not attacking russian territory.
F16 by themselves will not be enough, but they will help of course. Hopefully to lower the damage to infrastructure and hopefully to damage russian air force.
When we get to T-55, these tanks are unable to damage an M1 Abrams. Furthermore, T-55 are a stop-and-shoot tank, they’re unable to attack while moving. Etc. etc. And again: Russia has runout of tanks and IFVs in practice. A lot of today’s attacks in Kharkiv are motorcycle and golf-cart attacks.
I’m not saying that it will be easy. I’m saying that the change from highly regarded Russian 1st Guards Tank Army that took over huge swaths of Ukraine in the first weeks of the war is over. 1st Guards Tank Army has been crushed. Russia is reconstituting them now, but they are noticeably absent from the battlefield.
Then Wagner showed up with tanks and other advanced equipment. Now they’re gone.
And then we have shitty ass T-55s that are wholly outmatched by Leopard and Abrams. In an ambush maybe the T55 can still disable the tread and score mobility kills, but its really not as threatening as what Russia was sending initially. Luckily, the best Russian equipment seems to have already been wiped out from 2022 and 2023.
Obviously its not the time to get complacent. But we can’t deny the shift in Ukrainian’s favor.
They don’t need to, they just need to do enough to make western tanks show up at which point they are artillery and drone targets. Ukrainians said so themselves in a number of videos. As soon as western tanks show up, they become priority targets. Plenty of video evidence for that in telegram channels too. Just like meat waves of Bahmut, its not the thing that causes damage, its the side effect.
I will agree to this only when i see the battle lines moving in the right direction, pushing russians back. For now they are unfortunately still making gains everyday.
Neither apparent hurt for vehicles or manpower losses deters them. Do see Ukrainians making some gains recently from time to time, but overall, its still not going well enough.
To me its the crazy rules of engagement operated by western nations and limitations on strikes which is insane. When this embargo is lifted i think we will see some actual movement on the front. I fear f16 will be under the same embargo. Great that Ukraine will have them but overall i am not convinced they aill tip the war in their favour enough.
It seems that currently glide bombs are a large problem but for f16 to be effective, they need to have permission to engage russian fighter/bombers that tend to fire from deep inside russia, out of “allowed” reach for western missiles. To me thats a massive issue.
1st Guards Tank Army probably could face M1 Abrams in maneuver warfare. That was literally their training.
We’ve gone from a position where the Russians had a command of the frontlines, into a position where Russians are forced to use inferior equipment and ambush tactics. Its why the Russians are unable to effectively attack into Ukrainian defenses anymore.
Now you’re right in that Ukraine may not have the strength to attack into Russian defenses. But that’s what F16s are supposed to change. Is it enough? Who knows, but its better than nothing and better than what was available in 2023. What I can say for sure, is that Russia has also been unable to mount an effective attack.
In any case, I think the M2 Bradley is probably a match for T-55. M2 Bradley doesn’t have the same firepower, but it does have homing missiles. T-55 thin armor probably gets penetrated by enough M2 Bradley armor-piercing rounds (not that I’m an expert in that, but… M2 Bradley did take down more powerful tanks already). Its not what the M2 Bradley was designed for, but its showing the technological advantage Ukraine now commands on the front.
Remember: M2 Bradley is a troop-carrier. Not a tank. But it seems to match up favorably against many Russian tanks in practice, because Russians have had their forces degenerate so much.
If you move, artillery can’t hit you. Artillery takes over a minute before it lands. That’s why tanks exist, tanks are close enough to bring the guns to the frontlines and instantly strike a target, because striking a target within 3km is just a few seconds at most… while striking a target 20km away with Artillery has all kinds of delays and downsides.
Drones are subject to electronic warfare and anti-air guns like the German Flakpanzer Gepard, or US’s MACE system (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5e-KIu7t3M). Aimbot + RADAR == dead drones. Yes, Ukraine needs to advance under the cover of anti-air (and those anti-air can be targeted by guide bombs or other more powerful weapons). But there’s a plan in place for that too.
Russia has still lost territory since 2022 actually. Russia has been unable to secure Donbas or Luhansk. Russia then starts a new front in Kharkiv and immediately stalls out.
Russia, even with all their meatwave attacks, was unable to cause anything like the 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kharkiv_counteroffensive). It is Kyiv / Ukrainians who have effectively counter-attacked and changed territory last. Everything else is just a rounding error.
That’s not how glide-bombs work. Glide bombs don’t have any rockets, they literally fall into their target with little wings to extend the range a bit. Glide Bombs only have like 100km range or something like that, and the Fighter/Bombers that launch these glide bombs have already been taken out by well placed Patriot systems (or … something??. But probably Patriot missiles given what has been publicly released. I think there were some discussions that the Ukrainians made a ground-launched tube that can shoot air-to-air missiles from the ground… so its not necessarily the “Patriot” system that killed those fighter-bombers. But whatever it was, the Ukrainians have the capability for that kind of ground-based ambush today).
The problem is that its very difficult to constantly move Patriot systems (or any other ground-based system), so the Russians can just attack elsewhere. The Ukrainians need an aircraft that can meet the speed of enemy aircraft so that anti-air can follow Russians as they fly around the frontlines. But Ukraine is actually already in a position where they can position Patriot missiles (or whatever ground-based system they’re using) to stop glide-bomb attacks in one area. Ukraine just can’t afford to defend the whole frontline, and Ukraine cannot move those Patriots / ground defenses faster than Russia can move Glide-bomb / Jets.
Finally, USA has given permission to use American equipment anywhere the Russians are attacking from. Your point is moot as of a month or two ago, the Ukrainians already have that permission. Its simply an issue of capabilities.
No one expects Ukraine to make gains this year. Everyone expects Russians to attack and pin everything on the hopes of Donald Trump winning the 2024 election (wherein Donald Trump then cuts off funding, preventing Ukrainians from counter-attacking next year).
That’s Russia’s plan. Ukraine has placed their trust / counter-offensive in the hands of the election. I don’t think Ukraine will surrender if Donald Trump becomes President though, Europe should be strong enough to keep Ukraine going even without the USA in 2025.
That’s not what is being reported. They are still making advances. Even pro-Ukrainian channels are reporting this.
Its an interesting point, but possibly unlikely f16 would be deployed on the eastern side initially (where they are most needed), suspect their initial proving ground would be Crimea. Ukrainians have for some time now, been hitting russian SAM sites and radar installations in the area. It is also close to the “neutral” sea where NATO awacs and other spy drones can fly and monitor the situation (as well as warn Ukraine if russians scramble jets or any other countermeasures) as an advance warning system. We will very likely see their first use in this theatre as a test ground. And if this works out, we might see them being rolled out on the rest of the eastern front, but that is quite some time away practically. It will most likely depend if Ukraine has enough HIMARS ammunition to overwhelm and destroy more SAM sites it those areas.
For sure, we seen the videos of some fights, it seems Bradley is the vehicle of choice in Ukraine at least in the released videos.
Kinda false, there are a number of videos showing artillery hitting moving targets, maybe those are rare, but they are non-zero. Now I tend to hang around pro-Ukraine telegram channels so tend to see more pro-Ukrainian videos, but to suggest that russians can’t do something similar (even if rarely) is statistical insanity. I keep saying, if they (russians) were entirely incompetent across the board, the front lines would not be moving against Ukraine.
There are a number of videos of Ukrainians doing just that, even more where the target is first immobilised with FPV drone and then hit with artillery very shortly after the crew bails, indicating cooperation between drone and artillery groups but a small delay for artillery to wait for the target to be stationary and hit it pretty accurately.
If the glide bombs are easy to intercept, why are Uranians complaining about them all the time? If the front lines report its still a problem for them I am more likely to believe the news coming out of there than high command. The issue is where russians are using glide bombs in anger, is unlikely to be the first place where f16s are deployed, at least not initially. Which still presents an issue for Ukraine.
For the British side, they have quietly pulled the permission for storm shadow use inside Russia, just a couple examples. I am not sure how fake these are, but pro-Uranian telegram channel has reposted similar news. Permission was very publicly granted and than quietly “clarified”. Now if this some kind of confusion psyop or not, I am not sure. But the west seems to still be not entirely aligned. In fact I really hope it i just some kind of psyop thing to be honest.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/07/12/uk-clarifies-stance-on-storm-shadow-missiles-denies-permission-for-use-in-russia/ https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3885635-expert-criticizes-ban-on-strikes-on-russia-when-we-strike-with-our-own-weapons-there-is-no-escalation.html
As for the American systems, it seems odd that if Ukraine already has unlimited permission, why are there still articles about Ukraine asking for it repeatedly? Again maybe more deception from Ukraine, perhaps. I donno what to think. All I wish is for all restrictions to be lifted.
Absolutely agreed, it would be a terrible place to be in if all USA aid stopped, Europe already proved, it is not enough by itself to supply Ukraine adequately. And with US presidential election looming, it is really worrying me. Thankfully LePen didn’t win, as she threatened to revoke permission from using French weapons in russia.
To be honest, we both want Ukraine to win, and all was saying is that in a modern war where both sides have access to a lot of resources, there are no wonder weapons that will shift the game sufficiently to push for a quick win and that we should not underestimate the enemy. Things help and we in the West, should be doing more to help.
Advancements of a few sq. kms a day mean nothing compared to 2022 or 2023 style movements that the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (when Russia attacks) or Ukrainian Counter-offensive (in late 2022) performed.
The line is more static today than ever before.
It requires special rounds like Copperhead (laser guided artillery), or BONUS (Infrared Guided / Heat guided Artillery). These rounds are very special and are not typical artillery. And they only work in very specific circumstances.
Copperhead needs someone at the frontline shining a laser to pinpoint the target. BONUS only works vs hot tanks or vehicles. So “some”, very rare very expensive artillery rounds, can hit a moving target. But we can ignore them for the most part since the 99% of artillery rounds used are dumb rounds.
Because Ukrainian defenses only work vs glide bombs if they have an ambush setup. And Ukrainians have very few anti-air missiles. Russia only has to attack randomly along the front, and the Ukrainian ground defenses are too slow to reposition to the movements of Russian aircraft.
But Ukraine is 100% allowed to intercept and kill Russian fighter/bombers using these glide bombs. Ukraine simply doesn’t have the capacity to effectively and reliably do so however. That’s why F16s are so important, they are fast enough to launch air-to-air missiles vs the glide bombers and whittle the Russian aircraft down more reliably.
Its not what you said earlier. What the Ukrainians wish is for more permissions. Ukrainians want deep strikes that can target Russian Air Bases. Ukraine wants to hit the fighter/bombers on the ground before they take off. These locations are so deep into Russia that USA is nervous about authorizing it, as it’d definitely be another escalation.
But Ukraine is 100% allowed (and already has), shot down Russian fighter/bombers on glide bomb maneuvers. Its a difficult shot for a ground-to-air system like Patriot. But it should get much easier to do after F16s arrive.
F16s should be key for the glide-bomb problem. But I’m seeing estimates that Ukraine needs 200+ F16s for that to really be enough.
A dozen or so F16s is barely moving the needle. But at least Ukraine has some F16s coming and can start doing something about that particular problem.