Gestures at Twitter.com.

Remember how Elon lost a court case and was forced by contracts to buy Twitter?

This isn’t Trump. This is an Elon Musk situation. The law can, and will, fuck Elon over. The doofus isn’t anywhere as slippery as Trump.

For reference: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/52/10307

©False information in registering or voting; penalties Whoever knowingly or willfully gives false information as to his name, address or period of residence in the voting district for the purpose of establishing his eligibility to register or vote, or conspires with another individual for the purpose of encouraging his false registration to vote or illegal voting, or pays or offers to pay or accepts payment either for registration to vote or for voting shall be fined not more than $10,000 or imprisoned not more than five years, or both: Provided, however, That this provision shall be applicable only to general, special, or primary elections held solely or in part for the purpose of selecting or electing any candidate for the office of President, Vice President, presidential elector, Member of the United States Senate, Member of the United States House of Representatives, Delegate from the District of Columbia, Guam, or the Virgin Islands, or Resident Commissioner of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico.

Oh, so are you pushing for a Senator or a Representative who can more seriously push the party left?

That the far left vote is fickle and that it’s better to try to cater to Dick and Liz Chaney and hope for the solid neoconservative vote instead??

Yeah, abstain from voting harder. Let’s see where that gets ya. If you want to pull the party left, the. Prove to the party that there is a left they can pull to.

We know that Twitter and Facebook interfered in the election by suppressing documents and information that would have hurt Joe Biden — think Hunter Biden’s laptop, the lack of scientific basis for COVID-19 restrictions and everything in between. It isn’t really a stretch to think that Republican speech was being suppressed in other ways across social media platforms.

But there has been a profound change in social media since the last presidential election. Elon Musk, a strong proponent of free speech, took control of Twitter/X in 2022, and as for Facebook, the discovery of its cover-ups most certainly has put a much harsher spotlight on it this time around.

What the fuck is this drivel?

The skit doesn’t make it appear that anyone is ahead. It just makes it clear that SNL and their crew is supportive of Kamala.

Wow. I don’t like SNL so I wasn’t expecting much. But I did have a lot of smiles here.

Well done.

No one has changed their minds over the last week. But the poll numbers keep changing.

The fact that all these polling groups move and march in unison is clearly indicative of covariance. The polls are related in subtle ways.

Everyone has an error and worse, the errors have correlations.

Poled over

The #1 pain point for pollsters is the prediction of the election demographics.

Polls and statistics are such that a general simple random sample has too little power / weak error bounds (I’m talking like +/-10%, nearly useless).

The easiest way to improve your error bounds is to make assumptions about the electorate makeup. IE: if you know the election will be 50% male and 50% female, you can poll 50 men and 50 women (rather than 100 random people, which might end up as 60 men and 40 women due to randomness).

Lather rinse repeat for other groupings (Latino, Asians, black, 18Y olds, 55Y olds, Rural, Urban, etc. etc.) and you get the gist of how this all works.

Alas: the male / female vote this year is completely worked because abortion is on the ballot. All pollsters know this. Their numbers are crap because the methodology is crap this year. It’s impossible to predict women turnout.

20+ out of 34 Senate for Democrats and narrow lead in the house.

That’d normally be exceptionally good news for the Democrats nominee. So I’m with the big theory that something funky is going on with the polls.

We are about to see the most split ticket voters of all time (Vote Democrat for Senate and House… But vote for Trump in the Presidency), or people have been lying to pollsters somehow… On a mass scale.

And I don’t believe that split ticket voters exist in this election.

I’ll be happy enough if its “just” Elon who loses out.

Pascal programmers are confused.

American voting game is one of turnout.

For Republicans, they are in the minority. But their will to vote is much higher. Pandering to his own supporters encourages the get out the vote effort in ways that Democrats are simply unable to do.

Puerto Rico has no electoral votes. But everyone born in Puerto Rico is a US Citizen.

Meaning Puerto Ricans who are currently living stateside (ex: studying at a university and staying enough months of the year to qualify for residency) can vote.

Similarly, a… Californian… who is living in Puerto Rico has no electoral votes. Because USA assigns votes by land.

Every Puerto Rican is a USA citizen who has the right to vote. As long as they’re living in the correct area (ie: inside the 50 fully accepted states).

Haitian migrants were legal btw.

Puerto Ricans likely remember the more racist times decades ago. And secondly, they are a much larger group than Haitians. So this is a much bigger mistake than the Haitian thing a few weeks ago…

No offense to any Haitians around here. Just talking about sizes and demographics. It’s awful that we have a candidate who is so openly racist. But I’m happy that they’re showing their colors while we can still defeat them at the ballot box.

The endorsements come from the writers, not from leadership.

If a conservative owner owns a liberal set of writers, muzzling your writers and stopping endorsements is to the conservatives advantage.

Florida also has the Abortion ban on its ballots, so Women are likely going to vote in huge numbers.

Kinda sad that the Presidential election is riding on the coattails of other issues, but that’s the nature of today’s politics.

Florida is considered solidly red though. But all elections in the USA are a turnout issue.

So yeah. LA Times, Washington Post and now Gannett conglomerate all made the same decision at roughly the same time.

This was preplanned.

I don’t think this media takeover strategy is going to go as they hope. This makes the Democrats cause more real and heightens the stakes.

Oil futures were down. Not actual oil.

An oil future in WTI makes you legally obligated to pickup the oil in West Texas or along its pipe network (most common pickup point is Arkansas IIRC).

So let’s say you bought an oil future for $0 at $0 a barrel. And now 10,000 barrels of oil are waiting for pickup. And let’s say you are a New York speculator and not actually someone with storage.

How do you get rid of the contract before you are penalized? Well, you sell it at -$10. But the guy who bought it for -$10 was also a New York speculator who thought the price couldn’t go any lower.

By the end of the day, the speculators were selling the contract for -$40 a barrel, because the penalty for missing the pickup date is very heavy.

Eventually, some trucker ‘Bought’ the contract at -$40 and made free money as the trucker just had to go there and pick up the oil.