cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/3539755

The Finnish word “sisu” entered the international lexicon as a byword for indomitable willpower. Or, as Jonathan Clements [Clements, author of A Short History of Finland] put it: “That huge Soviet army rolling across the border and the Finns just standing there and saying, ‘NOPE’.” Today, he says, Ukraine is a living example of sisu.

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Could Finland’s situation be similar to Australia’s? According to Finnish President Alexander Stubb, it’s so much alike that the two nations’ security interests are joined at the hip.

“I feel that, you know, as far apart as we are, Australia and Finland, pretty much our security is tied hip to hip. Because you deal with similar types of security issues. You know, whether it’s China, for you, Russia for us.” And, for all US allies, it’s Donald Trump.

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The head of the National Security College at the Australian National University, Professor Rory Medcalf, thinks so: “Finland has proved that small countries can protect themselves in an unforgiving world while remaining true to democratic principles.”

Medcalf has published a paper nominating Finland as Australia’s “North Star” for developing national resilience. Finland is regarded as a role model for much larger European states in standing against Russia. And Stubb has recently developed a reputation as a “Trump whisperer”, one of very few foreign leaders to change the US president’s mind on any topic.

So what is Finland doing about today’s twin pressures from Putin and Trump? Russia, which once annexed Finland and has attacked it several times over seven centuries, is positioning itself to do it again. “I know it sounds strange,” Stubb says in an interview at the president’s lakeside official summer residence, but “we’re quite relaxed at the moment”.

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Russia is suspected of cutting undersea cables connecting various European nations, including Finland. Helsinki detained one such saboteur ship. China is accused of likewise cutting cables in the Taiwan Strait.

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Satellite imagery in May revealed new Russian military infrastructure being built along the border with Finland. Hangars for fighter jets, helicopter bases, warehouses for armoured vehicles and troop encampments indicate a long-term build-up is under way.

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“Our base case is very simple,” Stubb says. “Within the next five to 10 years, two things will hold true with Russia. One is that they will not revert into a peaceful liberal democracy. And second, they will continue a military build-up.” Those assumptions could just as easily be applied to China.

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Last week, Stubb gave formal notice that Finland was withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention against the use of landmines. On Wednesday, Reuters broke the news that Finland, together with Lithuania, will begin manufacturing landmines next year. And Helsinki is building a 200-kilometre barrier fence along one stretch of its Russian border.

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He [Stubb] is dismissive of Putin’s war: “Look, this year, he has advanced 0.25 per cent of the Ukrainian land mass at a cost of 167 soldiers dead per kilometre. It’s a pretty damn high price to pay.

“What I would argue is [that it’s] the biggest tactical and strategic mistake in modern history because he set out to pacify Ukraine; it’s going to become a member of the European Union, and eventually NATO.

“He [Putin] set out to dismantle NATO. Well, he just doubled the border with NATO through Russia with Finland. He set out to destroy the transatlantic partnership. Well, together we’re now hiking up our defence expenditure to 5 per cent [of GDP over 10 years],” a commitment agreed to by all NATO members last month.

“He [Puitn] set out to dismantle the EU. Well, I’ve never seen it more united. So Putin failed on all accounts.”

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A veteran MP from the [Finnish] opposition Social Democratic Party, Johannes Koskinen, says: “We remember the Winter War when we were alone against Stalin’s Soviet Union. That’s why we give so much support to Ukraine.”

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Finland has joined NATO for its protection, but other European members of the alliance also feel comforted to have Finland, population 5.6 million, as their new ally.

In Denmark, former diplomat Jonas Parello-Plesner observes that “it’s a huge boon that Finland, which never stood down militarily, is on our north and east with a large mobilised army and a huge military reserve”.

Stubb says: “There’s a reason why we have over 60 F-18s. We just bought 64 F-35s. There’s a reason why we have long-range missiles, air, land and sea. And there’s a reason why we have the biggest artillery in Europe, with Poland. And the reason is not Sweden.”

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He adds that countries with small populations and high salaries cannot compete against countries with big populations on low salaries: “Russia and China have huge armies of over a million. Small countries with standing armies on high salaries don’t have enough forces. That’s why smaller countries should have conscription.”

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Australia can learn from Finland’s comprehensive security policy, says [Australian National University] ANU’s Medcalf: “Public-private sector co-operation is key.” Indeed, Hakamies of the Confederation of Finnish Industries says the system “is not based on law, it’s based on co-operation – companies talk to each other, they rehearse what they will do in a crisis, they train in all the sectors that are crucial when the borders are closed”.

Interestingly, Australia has committed to a similar concept of “whole of nation” security, involving society and business, as recommended by the Albanese government’s defence strategic review, but that’s where it remains – in the review, on paper only.

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If the West wants to succeed, it needs to enlist the south bloc, he argues: “Because they’re the ones who decide. So if we take the moral high ground and continue preaching to the global south, we’re going to lose this game to China.”

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If it should come to a world war, values-based alliances would be central, says Stubb, a lifetime student of international affairs: “There are few countries in the world that are values-based alliances, and I think they come from Europe. They also come from Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan, United States and Canada. And that’s why, if anything would ever happen, we would certainly rely on an alliance in one form or another with Australia.” And, no doubt, a large measure of sisu.