Neither of them are popular candidates. But they are in a statistical tie in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Although it’s going to be really awkward when Arizona sends a democratic senator while voting for Trump. (And Gallego is not a conservative.)
Yeah. That they do. I don’t think Mark Kelly is interested in the presidency though. And until Arizona Democrats get a replacement lined up we need him where he is.
Trump has the support of party officials but actual conservative voter support is still soft. They really do prefer a Romney type. But they’ll vote Trump over Bernie. A “moderate” like Biden can pull a bunch.
Well yes, that’s the definition of a base group in politics. Ideology and party do not equal base though. For some reason it’s rare to find polling like this connected to candidates. Usually it’s issues polling or party loyalty polling.
So what you’re looking for in this case is the “leans right” category. That’s soft support for conservatives and the Republican party. The actual base is going to be aligned with the next group over. Which is typically around 33 percent. Translating that into likely voters is hard because those 33 percent are going to show up if they can. The leans groups are the ones that might not show up or could be convinced to vote the other way. Assuming of course they’re between the two parties and not on the far ends.
We can see also how strong his support is in the primaries. His biggest Challenger was DeSantis at 20 percent. That’s not great news. But Haley ran a specifically anti Trump campaign and gathered 6 percent at her highest. That’s good news. That says there’s 6 percent of conservatives, people who normally vote Republican who could be lured away or kept home with the right marketing.
It doesn’t seem like much but have a look at how close our elections have been recently. 6 percent in the right states could swing the election. And that’s not counting the independents and lean left groups. Now we look at the 3 states the democrats need, PA, MI, and WI. Nikki Haley actually had 12-26 percent in those 3 primary contests. So those are also vulnerable voters the Democrats can go after in the three states they actually need.
Disclaimer I haven’t had my coffee yet today so if anything is confusing just please ask questions!
It’s legitimately possible the left abandons him and he picks up enough conservatives to win anyways.
Assuming we ignore his polling, sure.
Meaning what? I’ve consciously stayed away from election/polling news
It’s not as bad as he is saying. Right now AZ is a write off but PA, MI, and WI are in play and are enough to get him to 270.
Meaning bad news for Biden fans.
Neither of them are popular candidates. But they are in a statistical tie in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Although it’s going to be really awkward when Arizona sends a democratic senator while voting for Trump. (And Gallego is not a conservative.)
They’ve each got a hard base of unshakable supporters who are incredibly annoying and deliberately obtuse about the most obvious shit.
One thing Democrats have managed to do in hotly contested Senate races is to find people who aren’t hateful assholes.
Shame they couldn’t have run Mark Kelly for president.
Yeah. That they do. I don’t think Mark Kelly is interested in the presidency though. And until Arizona Democrats get a replacement lined up we need him where he is.
There is not evidence that conservatives will support him
Trump has the support of party officials but actual conservative voter support is still soft. They really do prefer a Romney type. But they’ll vote Trump over Bernie. A “moderate” like Biden can pull a bunch.
That is really not true at all. He is beloved by the base and is exactly what they want
Well yes, that’s the definition of a base group in politics. Ideology and party do not equal base though. For some reason it’s rare to find polling like this connected to candidates. Usually it’s issues polling or party loyalty polling.
So what you’re looking for in this case is the “leans right” category. That’s soft support for conservatives and the Republican party. The actual base is going to be aligned with the next group over. Which is typically around 33 percent. Translating that into likely voters is hard because those 33 percent are going to show up if they can. The leans groups are the ones that might not show up or could be convinced to vote the other way. Assuming of course they’re between the two parties and not on the far ends.
We can see also how strong his support is in the primaries. His biggest Challenger was DeSantis at 20 percent. That’s not great news. But Haley ran a specifically anti Trump campaign and gathered 6 percent at her highest. That’s good news. That says there’s 6 percent of conservatives, people who normally vote Republican who could be lured away or kept home with the right marketing.
It doesn’t seem like much but have a look at how close our elections have been recently. 6 percent in the right states could swing the election. And that’s not counting the independents and lean left groups. Now we look at the 3 states the democrats need, PA, MI, and WI. Nikki Haley actually had 12-26 percent in those 3 primary contests. So those are also vulnerable voters the Democrats can go after in the three states they actually need.
Disclaimer I haven’t had my coffee yet today so if anything is confusing just please ask questions!