cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/3422394

Archived version

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Russian propagandists’ laser focus on Moldova became abundantly clear during the 2024 presidential elections. The first round of voting, which coincided with a referendum on European integration, is particularly telling.

Of the 482 sources reporting on Moldova’s elections during the voting and counting process, 150 Telegram channels were compromised. Their activities were directly linked to a Kremlin effort to influence the media, with state-backed sources starting disinformation campaigns and attempting to manipulate public opinion. In effect, every third source covering Moldova’s presidential elections was unreliable.

Monitoring of similar influence campaigns conducted by the Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia (ICAR) throughout 2024–2025 reveals that compromised and Kremlin-affiliated sources covering Moldova’s elections appeared at twice the rate of their typical usage in other political meddling operations.

Russia has compelling reasons to achieve at least a slowdown in Moldova’s ascension into the EU, and, if Russia succeeds in installing a puppet parliament, to begin implementing the “Georgian scenario.” While the Russians are struggling to create a puppet state like Belarus out of Ukraine, dividing and destabilising Moldova like Russia did with Georgia remains entirely feasible.

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