No one alive will experience a better climate than we have today. But young people will experience a much more dangerous and chaotic world in the future.

  • Naz@sh.itjust.works
    131·
    5 days ago

    I’d recommend reading Stand on Zanzibar for a glimpse into a +4.8°C future that we’re headed into.

    • poVoq@slrpnk.net
      8·
      4 days ago

      A book from 1968 about overpopulation among other things… that might be a sci-fi classic, but an accurate forecast of what is going to happen in the nearish future it is not 🙄

      • Fluffy Kitty Cat@slrpnk.netEnglish
        1·
        3 days ago

        Yeah the population bomb fizzled (although family planning policy being widespread probably makes it another ozone layer) and upside down population pryamids are a more realistic scenario

    • Beastimus@slrpnk.netEnglish
      4·
      4 days ago

      We’re probably not heading into over 4.8 though. Probable outcomes are between 2.5 and 3.5 (both of which are horrific.)

      • rekabis@lemmy.ca
        5·
        3 days ago

        We’re probably not heading into over 4.8 though. Probable outcomes are between 2.5 and 3.5 (both of which are horrific.)

        Unfortunately, that kind of thinking is badly out of date, and no longer in line with the evidence.

        Spoiler alert: it’s much, much worse than that.

        • cows_are_underrated@feddit.org
          3·
          3 days ago

          If you add up the current CO2 level of 424ppm, the effect of CH4 and the other greenhouse gases (+100ppm), and the effect of “albedo dimming” (+100ppm). Then we are at a level of +624ppm(CO2e).

          That’s about +6.5°C over baseline according to the paleoclimate record. The one that mainstream climate science DOESN’T use to calibrate CO2 levels to global temperatures from but that their “new numbers” for climate sensitivity are starting to match.

          If the Rate of Warming follows the pattern of the last few years. Then La Nina years should warm about +0.1°C per year. With “spikes” during El Nino years of +0.2°C up to +0.4°C PER YEAR.

          With 2 El Nino’s per decade and about 6 La Nina years we may be looking at a RoW of roughly +1.2°C of warming PER DECADE now.

          Guess I’m going to kill myself. This shit is fucked up.

        • Beastimus@slrpnk.netEnglish
          1·
          3 days ago

          Ok, correct me if I’m wrong, but this guy doesn’t seem to have any credentials, which seems like a huge red flag to me. Especially since he spends a lot of this article shitting on mainstream climate science. I don’t know enough about climate science to know whether this is actually bunk, which is deeply distressing to me.

          But either 1, its legit and we’re headed for the literal end of the world (not as we know it, like, all life goes extinct in the scenario he poses, there is nothing left).

          Or 2, its not legit and we’re headed for the end of the world as we know it and the deaths of a distressingly large amount of the human population.

          Either way, I’m going to be doing all the same things, and we all need to do all the things we’d do if we were heading for 6.5 as if we were heading for 3, this doesn’t change anything to me, and it certainly doesn’t change anything in the minds of the biggest polluters…