Attacks on two DTEK solar farms last spring is a good example. They destroyed many solar panels and some of the transformers, which step up voltage for long distances or step it down for use in homes. Replacing the transformers and swapping out destroyed panels allowed the farms, which generate 400 megawatts, to be back up in seven days.
Timchenko said an attack on a thermal generating station, which experienced a similar amount of damage, took three to four months to rebuild.
If the grid is down your industry is down. Large scale PV is easily and cheaply trashed with cluster munitions.
Wait until you find out how easy it is to bomb a coal plant
And how much more expensive it is to replace it
Not to mention how long it would take to build back up- even with 24/7 work, it could take weeks or months to rebuild while solar has a much shorter lead time, especially if there are stockpiles of panels around
You seem to be thinking small scale, the concept is decentralised electrical generation nation wide.
Not centralised energy generation such as a single solar plant, a single wind turbine field, a single coal plant, a single nuclear plant.
To cluster bomb a single PV plant (in one attack) would be “easy”, just as easy as a single coal plant.
To carpet bomb a whole nation (in one attack) with PV panels on every home, building, school, sports centre, field, farm would be logistically challenging.
Notes made after a storm: a panel with a 30 cm slash from flying plywood keeps producing, just somewhat less.
Geran-2 carries about 50 kg which can be a cluster munition up to 2000 km on the cheap. It is very effective when taking out large scale PV modules which are made from thermally prestressed glass.
Renewables can’t keep a grid up without fossil backup, which is by now greatly reduced. And 750 kV transformers are also very vulnerable. Ukraine grid is now entirely reliant on electricity import from neighboring countries. These high voltage lines are few.
Of the things you mention, transformer stations and baseload power stations are a real problem. One can build them inside a concrete shell, but nobody can rebuild them all.
Of course, it’s a fact of life that one cannot operate a grid without baseload generation. So baseload (thermal power stations) are the typical target. Solar parks are not. If you get a drone to a fuel tank or turbine hall, you have achieved 1000% more than landing in a solar park.
I’ve seen photos of a hole left by “Iskander” in a solar park (I cannot guess what kind of a “genius” fired it). Crater radius about 10 meters, various grades of destruction out to 50 meters. That’s a 500 kg warhead. With only 50 kilograms, would expect it to take out a circle with a radius of 25 meters. That’s some 2000 square meters, containing about 1000 square meters worth of panels. At today’s prices, panels cost about 25 € per square meter. So the damage in panels (excluding frameworks and cabling and work) is about 25 000 €. The cost of the Shahed / Geran drone is probably in the same class. But not every Shahed reaches its target - in fact, most of them don’t - so firing one at a solar park would not be economical.
A Geran-2 is a mass produced 20-30 k$ item and can carry a 50 kg payload up to 2000 km which will destroy PV modules in a 200-300 m diameter with a cluster munitions payload. Such attacks are very cost effective and can be repeated, so rebuilding doesn’t help you.
Series produced, not mass produced - I sincerely hope they won’t reach mass production, that would be harmful.
Also, they have no version with a cluster warhead. Shahed 136 drones (the most common version) have unitary warheads, some with high explosive (some with enhanced shrapnel production) and some with blast (thermobaric) effect.
A hypothetical version with cluster bomblets would of course damage solar arrays on a larger area (it helps get around the inverse square law), but the cost is: less explosive and more casing material - the bomblets would make holes in panels, but most panels would remain standing and keep producing something.
For information, this is what the result of a single cluster bomblet looks like.
But how come the experts are saying differently?
Which “experts” do you need for what’s common knowledge?
If you took a second to read you’d find their usefulness isn’t withstanding attack, but being able to quickly deploy after an attack.
You’re acting as if there’s some magical form of energy generation that is impervious to modern munitions.
I’ll write it again then: of what use is rebuilding a small scale insular install if your grid is down, and can’t get up because your power plants and high voltage transformers are toast? You industry can’t operate, that’s the whole point of this exercise. The residents and small businesses can survive on small generators, and they do.
Before engaging sarcasm try finding out whether the tree you’re barking up is in the right forest.
You just don’t understand how the grid works especially with decentralized power.
The grid doesn’t work with pure renewable without month-scale storage. Decentralized has nothing to do with it. Most industrial production processes require 24/7/365 power availability. For obvious reasons not many such are still in operation there, despite aggressive load shedding.
If experts disagree with your “common knowledge”, it’s probably actually a “common misconception” which, given the sheer complexity of information in our world, is a fairly common phenomenon. There’s no shame in being wrong about things you’re no expert in, just in doubling down on your error.
(Of course, if you’re an expert too and have evidence to the contrary, it becomes effectively impossible for laypeople to assess without knowing the history current state of discussion in the field.)
Who told you these people mentioned in an article are experts? Argument from authority isn’t, doubly so from imagined authority. Most about activities going on in the Ukraine and those supporting them are grift. Make sure to double-check what these experts are trying to sell you.
I was contesting the general logic of this sentiment:
I took this to mean “If common knowledge suggests an obvious understanding, an expert’s assessment is can add no value, as they would either agree or be wrong.” Put differently: “If it seems obviously true to me, it must be true in general.”
TL;DR: If you think you know more than experts on a given topic, you’re most likely wrong.
On a fundamental level, this claim in general holds no water. Experts in a given field are usually aware of the “common knowledge”. They also usually have special knowledge, which is what makes them experts. If they claim things that contradict “common knowledge”, it’s more likely that their special knowledge includes additional considerations a layperson wouldn’t be aware of.
Appeal to Authority as a fallacy applies if the person in question isn’t actually an authority on the subject just because they’re prominent or versed in some other context, but it doesn’t work as universal refutation of “experts say”.
For this specific case, I’m inclined to assume there is some nuance I might not know about. Obvious to me seems that large, central power plants are both easier targets and more vulnerable to total disruption if a part of their machinery is damaged. On the other hand, a distributed grid of solar panels may be more resilient, as the rest can continue to function even if some are destroyed, in addition to being harder to spot, making efforts to disrupt power supply far more expensive in terms of resources.
However, I’m not qualified to assess the expertise of the people in question, let alone make an accurate assessment myself. Maybe you’re right, they’re grifters telling bullshit. But I’d be wary of assuming so just because it seems true.
Attacks on centralized hydro and coal power plants are effective, but expensive since requiring several large ballistic rockets with 300-500 kg high explosive payloads.
In contrast to that you can take out a large PV module field for about 30 k$ with a mass produced item like a Geran-2 with a cluster munitions payload. This can’t be cost-effectively protected against, so rebuilding the plant doesn’t help. Attacks taking out vulnerable centralized parts like speciality high voltage transformers which are difficult to source are synergistic, since causing grid partitioning events and potential cascading failures due to overload.