cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/11403639
[Original in Russian. This is an automated translation with minimal edits.]
Less than a third of Russians (30.8%) believe that the elections to the State Duma [Russia’s parliament] of the IX convocation, which started on September 18, will be “honest,” an ExtremeScan poll showed.
According to a study conducted two weeks before the vote in all federal districts of the Russian Federation, more than half of Russian citizens believe that certain manipulations with the election results are likely. 32.7% said that the results “will be significantly changed”, 23.5% allowed “addition of votes” to some candidates, which, however, “will not significantly affect the outcome”.
The Duma of the VIII convocation, which worked since 2021 and was marked by a record number of repressive laws, in the opinion of most, “caused more harm”: this answer was given by 40.2% of respondents, and it became the most popular of all. 19.9% of respondents considered the work of deputies “useful”. At the same time, 7% said they “don’t know” what laws the Duma adopted, and 20% “difficult to answer”.
A three-day vote with a new electronic counting system from the CEC, which takes place in five regions, including in local territories - foams, benches and hoods of cars, will not bring a significant change in the balance in the Duma, where the majority has been held by United Russia for 23 years. The only opposition party, Yabloko, was removed from the federal-list election after the Kremlin noted that it was becoming an “assembly point” for anti-war forces in society.
United Russia may be allowed to sit down a bit to bring its declared results closer to the likely real results, but will make sure it “keeps absolute dominance in the Duma,” said Mark Galeotti, head of Mayak Intelligence consultancy. Elections are a kind of “legitimizing ritual” for the Kremlin, designed to create the impression of mass support, says Galeotti.
“In the current conditions, the elections have lost all meaning,” writes political analyst Abbas Gallyamov. The regime has completely emasculated them, depriving them of competition and therefore content.
And although “your vote will be stolen,” information about the real results of the vote in approximate form will be available to members of the electoral commissions from the parliamentary parties, some of which are real party representatives and will necessarily report to the party authorities “on a secret about the real preferences of the electorate,” Gallyamov said.
“The party leadership will not dare to publicly rebel, but it will be necessary to quietly indignate,” the expert is sure.
The main (and only one which is important) question is if anybody will do anything regarding this.
When the full-scale invasion started I had an opportunity to talk to regular people on both sides. Ukrainians were leaving their homes and moving to relative safety. Few russians were leaving the country as a protest, majority, though, either didn’t care or had an excuse why they can’t do anything. Their description of the situation was “well, it’s uncomfortable”.
The difference was shocking, but telling. They will do nothing until it moves from “uncomfortable” to “holy shit, run!”
