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xiaohongshu [none/use name]

@ xiaohongshu @hexbear.net

Posts
3
Comments
653
Joined
1 yr. ago

  • I mean, it’s not going to be worse than the 2014 sanctions. But the opportunity to revive the economy is now lost, and things aren’t going to get better until the so-called BRICS figure out among themselves how they want to move forward from the status quo.

    The fact that both Russia (literally at war with NATO and the collective West) and China (literally under continuous sanctions from the US) continue to be obsessed with “replenishing the budget” just demonstrates the ideological victory of neoliberalism. Even the countries that want to decouple from Western imperialism find themselves unable to abandon neoclassical theories that sustain the global neoliberal free trade regime.

    Until BRICS has decided that they want to create an entirely new economic doctrine and a new trade, financial and monetary system that opposes neoliberalism, they will continue to have to play by Washington’s rules. If it is just multi-polar neoliberalism, then nothing will change. Workers will still be exploited, rich countries will continue to extract from the poor countries, depriving them of economic sovereignty, international financial capital will continue to control the global supply chain in the guise of IMF bailouts and financial takeovers, and the probability of a world war rises as they cannot resolve the increasing contradictions of capitalism.

    Finally, if you look at the central banks accumulating gold in recent months, is it not proof that nobody has a clue (or could not come to a consensus) on how to build a new international financial system to displace the dollar regime? So they turn to hoarding gold, hoping to offset the depreciating value of the dollar that they have accumulated over the years by running the IMF-advised trade surplus strategy, as Trump now insists on reducing the US trade deficits. After three years of intense debate, there is still no consensus. We need to see a theoretical and an institutional breakthrough here.

  • From Russian telegram:

    A New Tax, an Old Trick: How Industry is Being Supported in Russia.

    The Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Finance have decided that Russian industry is too happy without additional "inspiration" from the state. An "industrial levy" is looming on the horizon starting September 1, 2026—effectively a new payment on finished industrial products in critical sectors. Officially, it is billed as a tool to support technological sovereignty; unofficially, it is another way to replenish the budget.

    Both importers and domestic producers will be taxpayers. Initially, the levy will be levied only on finished products, and then the list of taxable goods will gradually expand. The levy rate is determined individually for each unit of production, but will not exceed 5,000 rubles , which officials call a "moderate burden."

    However, let's add some context: the industry is already in decline—the manufacturing PMI is at ~47 points , indicating a contraction in activity. Government support is effectively being cut: industrial subsidies are included in the draft budget for 2025-2027, but they are comparatively small and will hardly cover the burden. As a reminder, approximately 186.5 billion rubles have been allocated for the electrical and electronic industry development program —less than 0.5% of all federal spending (or, more precisely, approximately 0.42% of the budget). This amount is intended to support domestic manufacturers of microchips and radio equipment, but funding for this program is planned to be cut starting in 2027, making the project more symbolic than industrial.

    Investment loans have become extremely expensive—high interest rates make any project less profitable. Meanwhile, the profitability of most industries is low, margins are thin, and the burden is growing: raising VAT from 20% to 22% adds a burden, and the fee adds a burden.

    The result is as follows: industry is in decline; there is almost no assistance; loans are expensive; taxes and new fees are plentiful.

    Sad. You’d think a war economy would revive Russia’s industries? Putin is showing you what it’s like to fight a war while tying both hands behind your back.

  • It was people's power that was able to end things like mass chattel slavery in the United States

    Marx wrote an entire collection of essays on the American Civil War.

    The semi-feudal slave economy of the American South saw a resurgence due to the Industrial Revolution in Europe, demanding large quantities of raw materials (e.g. cotton) for their proliferating textile industries. It became a threat to the industrial economy in the North, hence a Civil War was needed to end slavery.

    Without the Industrial Revolution, the slave economy would have faded away by itself as they were uncompetitive against the much better industrialized economy in the North, but the sudden surge in demand for raw materials changed the balance, allowing the plantation owners of the South to amass large quantity of wealth.

    Marx supported the industrialized North because he believed that it would eventually lead to the proletarianization of the American working class under a capitalist system, as opposed to a semi-feudal slave economy. That’s what “progressive” actually meant.

  • Yes, and most countries do not like that. They want their local economy to benefit from foreigners’ spending, not for the money to go back to foreigners while their own people earn nothing. If you go travel, you visit a local shop and spend, you’re helping the local economy. That’s the whole point of tourism economy.

  • The situation is very bad, although the China-Japan tension comes and goes every decade or so.

    As you can see Japan’s economy is struggling, and with a decreasing population, trying to open up immigration led to more backlash from the general population who are also struggling.

    Right wing populism is on the rise globally, and in a weirder way, I think both China and Japan ruling classes welcome it - China gets to distract its population from the internal economy problem, and Japan is also the same.

    This reminds me of the 1930s rise of militarism in Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in the wake of the Great Depression. Perhaps we’re heading towards another great war. Scary but it’s increasingly likely because of Trump’s madness with his global tariffs. The US going into recession is going to kill a lot of exporter economies, and I am really scared what’s going to happen next.

  • Yes, that’s how my parents travel lol.

  • While it is true, most tourists still have to eat and shop at places owned by locals. You still take local transportation. That’s how tourism stimulates local economy, otherwise no countries would want to invest in tourism.

    The genius part of the whole Chinese-owned loop is that you can literally visit a foreign country (especially Southeast Asia) with minimal spending into the local economy (and especially in countries that lower their taxes to encourage foreigners to visit). All the revenues get distributed among Chinese businesses and remitted back to China.

    This strategy also enabled the whole monopoly to drive down prices, and destroy competition. If you’re a local shop, you don’t get to earn from Chinese tourists because they already have their designated places to shop and eat.

  • Yeah probably the same concept, although my understanding is that Westerners are less inclined to take tour groups when traveling?

    The younger Chinese generation also prefers to travel by themselves but there are still plenty of people, especially the elderly, who use these tour groups, first because they don’t know how to do the research and are not used to traveling to a foreign country by themselves, and second because those tour groups can drive the price of the tour packages really low, which is enticing until you realize there are all sorts of hidden costs included.

  • This is really a very poor understanding/exposition of history.

    Just commenting on the Warring Period, the guy said Qin - the poorest region - ended up conquering and united all of China because they didn’t care about the “rules” (礼) and just wanted to defeat their enemies with warfare lol.

    First of all, by the time we get to the Warring Period (aka The Seven Kingdoms of Westeros) around 5th century BC, nobody gave a damn about the “rules” anymore (which characterized the prior Spring and Autumn period). Confucius called it 礼崩乐坏 (“collapse of the rites, ruins of the music”), meaning that nobody cared about the “harmonious” hierarchy of the class society, and nobody cared about honor in warfare anymore.

    Second, this is ignoring that nearly all the Seven Kingdoms had undergone deep reforms in their society to set about military conquests.

    In fact, it was Wei that led with Li Kui’s legalist reform, followed by Wu Qi’s military reform, forging the 魏武卒 (super-elite soldiers of Wei) who were practically unbeatable at the time.

    Qin’s Shang Yang reform happened nearly half a century later but was far more thorough (think proto-fascistic militaristic society) and allowed Qin to forge an army that was even more invincible than Wei’s army, and allowed them to eventually dominate the other six kingdoms and the unification of China, but the militarism will also lead to its swift downfall as the economic burden and the cruel punishment was simply too much for the common people to bear.

    Chu also had its reform by Wu Qi (after he was expelled from Wei).

    Zhao had its hufu qishe reform (胡服骑射 aka Wearing Barbarian Clothing and Shooting Archer from Horseback) under King Wuling, which would have given them a real shot at defeating Qin.

    Qi had Sun Bin (Sun Tzu’s descendent) who dealt a decisive blow to Wei’s super soldiers at the Battle of Guiling and the Battle of Maling, pretty much ended Wei’s imperial domination.

    It is complex history with lots of twists and turns, and you cannot just say Qin won because they liked to fight. I really do not recommend taking anything from this guy.

  • If you look at the last election result, it’s very clear that many Japanese dislike Chinese tourists. There is a clear rise in anti-China sentiment for quite some time now, especially since the Japanese yen exchange rate has fallen over the past few years.

    But zero-dollar tourism is a real issue, especially for the poorer Southeast Asian countries like Thailand.

    Basically, if you have ever joined a Chinese tour group (popular with the older folks), they’ll bring you to Chinese-owned hotels, Chinese-owned restaurants, Chinese-owned shops, Chinese-owned transportation, etc. The entire loop is Chinese owned.

    By creating such loop, Chinese tour agencies have been able to drive the prices down (and killing off the other competitors) and they get their profit back by earning commissions when bringing the tourists to Chinese-owned shops. If you’ve ever been in one of those Chinese tour groups, you CANNOT skip the shopping part, the tour guides will literally coerce you (emotional and psychological manipulation, begging, etc.) to buy from those shops, or you won’t be allowed to leave, because that’s where they actually earn their profit. It’s one of the worst parts of those tours lol.

    As a result, the local economies of those countries barely benefit from Chinese tourists, and Chinese tour agencies drive the prices down and kill the profitability of local tourism. You can imagine why there are countries who really do not like Chinese tourists flooding their countries.

  • I’m not an expert but do lurk around Chinese space nerd online groups.

    Starlink (and SpaceX in general) is one of the few areas where even Chinese space nerds will admit the gap between the US and China is actively widening, as in SpaceX is actually doing way better than the rest of the world.

    People don’t like SpaceX because it’s associated with Elon Musk. China’s manned space program has been around since 2003 and there has been a total of 16 crewed orbital missions. SpaceX’s Crew Dragon only started in 2020 and already has 18 crewed orbital missions, and have carried more people to space than the entire span of China’s 20+ years of manned space program. Apparently it’s because SpaceX has managed to bring the cost of rocket launch down significantly.

  • I also don’t think the US is trying to compete with China on industrial production. Both mainstream and alt media are guilty of perpetuating this narrative.

    I mean, did anyone forget that the US could not even compete with Japanese industries back in the 1980s, when the US industrial base was MUCH stronger back then. Who in their right mind would think the US can now compete with China? It would require the entire US establishment to forget the decades-long struggle against Japan’s much more energy and cost efficient industrial base where the lessons were already learned 40 years ago, which is absurd.

    The only way out for the US is to go full financialization, using tariffs to exploit China’s industrial power to kill other exporter economies in the Global South (since China refuses to give up its net exporter status), then the US comes in with financial takeover of the failing sectors, which will allow it to reshape the global supply chain.

    There is one problem though: how would the US deal with the deteriorating conditions for the working class in the US, which had led to a rise in populist movements? Here’s where Europe comes into play. The US is going to force the EU into switching places with itself, where the US gets partial re-industrialization (with the EU being coerced to import from the US, since the US is not able to compete with China and other exporter economies at much lower cost) while the EU de-industrializes itself.

  • China is very pragmatic, and if you’ve seen my posts, China is currently going through a phase of economic downturn with prolonged deflation and local government debt crisis, and so without a domestic consumer market, it really cannot afford to let the US screwing up global free trade as Trump has been threatening to do. All the best cards (e.g. rare earth exports) are being used to keep the US from decoupling from China precisely because of this. The two economies are too closely tied to one another that China cannot afford to see prolonged inflation or a recession in the US.

    The government has already spent trillions of stimulus to boost domestic consumption and resolving debt issue (化债) but the effects have been marginal at best. All the details that have been released about the 20th Five-Year Plan so far have shown that there will be nothing out of ordinary from its usual policies, except for more focus on high-tech sector and boosting consumption.

    Government subsidies and high-tech sectors aren’t going to solve massive wealth inequality, it requires a complete restructuring of how the economy is run. If the government does not want to run a deficit to provide full employment, then it cannot resolve these fundamental issues.

    On a side note, I’ve seen an uptick on the left internet lately that have fully bought into the “China is WINNING, the US is COLLAPSING” discourse, which is really just the inverse of “China is going to COLLAPSE any day now!” narrative fueled by right-wing propaganda, neither of which even made an attempt to understand the complexity and the dynamics of global economic, trade and financial systems.

    And once you understand these and knowing that China is very pragmatic about saving its own economy, a lot of things will make sense.

    Russia is also more or less the same. It has failed to use the opportunity provided by the Ukraine war to achieve an economic transformation under global sanctions, and so will have to continue to play by the rules set by Washington.

  • Bitcoin is not collapsing because it has been fully appropriated by the US government.

    The whole selling point of bitcoin/cryptocurrency was that it is this decentralized currency that will eventually topple government-backed fiat currencies and will become the next version of gold.

    The exact opposite has happened. Not only has it failed to find actual uses where government-backed fiat currency cannot do (beyond some very specific cases), what it is actually good at - global money laundering operations - is now under the full control of the US government. It is the exact opposite of the decentralization and anonymity promised by the crypto founders.

  • Still way above its actual value (0) but headed in that direction.

    Wrong. The actual value of bitcoin is negative when you factor in the tremendous energy cost to mine bitcoins.

  • That’s literally the selling point of the Xpeng’s humanoid robot. They’re not competing with the other companies that are already far ahead, they’re focusing on emulating natural human-like gestures such that their robots can function as human companions, not just machines doing mechanical tasks.

    And if you pay attention to the clips found on Chinese social media, that’s where things are heading at the moment.

  • I don’t know why we’re splitting hairs here.

    Maybe I did not iterate my point well enough above, but what I’m saying is that communists taking power in the span of months (when the memory of Tsarist rule was still very much fresh in the people’s mind) is very different from the communists taking power after two whole generations of people had grown up living under a Republic who barely had any memory of living under the Qing emperors.

  • You’re not getting my point. There was a 40-year gap between the fall of Qing in 1911 and the communists taking power in 1949, at which point nobody gave a damn about the Qing empire anymore.

    The Bolshevik situation was very different. Many people living under the new socialist state still had collective memory of living under a Tsarist rule. In China, at least two generations of people had been living under a Republic when the communists came to power.

  • Puyi was a nominal figurehead of the puppet state Manchukuo put up by the Japanese during the occupation, which is in the northeast (Manchuria).

    The rest of China had been a Republic since 1911. The point being that there was a 40-year gap between the fall of Qing and the communist taking power. By 1949, nobody gave a damn about the Qing empire, as opposed to the Bolshevik revolution when collective memory of living under the Tsarist rule was still fresh in people’s mind.

  • electoralism @hexbear.net

    Zohran Mamdani Wins New York With a Youthquake

    www.nakedcapitalism.com /2025/11/zohran-mamdani-youthquake-new-york-cuomo-trump-democrats.html
  • Chapotraphouse @hexbear.net

    Ridiculous Chinese censorship used AI to change the gay couple in Together (2025) to a heterosexual couple

  • History @hexbear.net

    Average working hours dropped drastically after 1917, due to fear that the Russian Revolution would inspire similar revolutions in other countries