xiaohongshu

I’m going to assume you live in Shanghai and is in the top 0.5-1% bracket? (No need to dox yourself if you don’t want to though, it’s just how I remember it)

I can tell you that the top 1%, even the top 10%, are certainly out of touch with the rest of the working class in China. These are the people who haven’t really experienced the consequences of the deflationary economy, even though the Tier 1 cities have seen the most drop in consumption (guess why that is the case). I know because I am friends with some of them (academics).

the tangping movement has actually been losing momentum because everyone just relocating to back to their hometowns or lower cost cities which are actually no longer miserable and have reasonable cost of living to salary ratios.

Are there job opportunities in the lower tier cities? Remember the property prices plunging is affecting the local government financing much more seriously for the Tier 3/4 cities and below than the Tier 1/2 cities. Not everyone lives in Shanghai you know, which is the wealthiest city in the country.

i would say that the youth, while unhappy about the job market, benefitted a lot from the housing market getting taken down (to give xhs the benefit of the doubt, lets just assume salary growth has been nil over the past 5 years, but housing prices dropped like 30% while durable goods also went down in the double digits. are you really going to be that mad?). it was only really the petit bourgeoisie that had investment properties that got hit hard: it's not like you're going to be losing any wealth if you only have the one house that you're already living in or if you were already renting.

No offense, but you are certainly out of touch with even most home-owning middle class people in China. You’re not describing how people think when they’re buying house and committing to a 20-year mortgage.

Let’s say your house price is inflating. Now if you suddenly lose your job (remember there is next to no unemployment welfare in China) and couldn’t find another in months, you can still sell your house and downgrade your living conditions, then take the price difference as your emergency funds to get through the difficulty. This was why back in 2017-2019, the middle class was spending lavishly, because everyone knew that their wealth was inflating so they could make riskier consumption and investment choices.

However, when the prices are deflating, and if you lose your job, not only are you not able to sell your house (who’s willing to take over a house that’s going to be 10% cheaper next year?), you STILL have to keep paying your mortgage after having lost your income. To put it mildly, you’re practically fucked. That’s simply the reality of many home-owning middle class who bought houses after 2017.

Guess why people are not spending and started saving these days? Because they have to squeeze out every bit of income to service their mortgage, and in the event of losing their job, they’re going to need every bit of that to survive.

Your thinking assumes that people are at no risk of losing their jobs over an entire 15-, 20- and even 30-year mortgage period.

And because the home-owning middle class has reduced consumption spending due to their property prices falling, the economy spirals into deflation as business profits are cut to razor thin margins, production downscaling and workers are getting laid off, which is why the young people cannot find jobs these days. That’s where we are right now.

So, no, it’s not just affecting the petit bourgeoisie, it’s affecting everyone! And that includes the local governments that have tied their budget to land finance. Somebody has to maintain the public transportation and public services, you know.

Also, it’s not just middle class who owns houses, many migrant workers were scammed into buying properties in the provincial towns (with the promise to access high quality education for their kids) by the local governments in order to drive up land prices. Now they’re getting screwed even harder.

Of course, if you live in a Tier 1 city and making income at the top bracket that allows you to live like a king in China, you’re not going to feel any of that.

It’s bad… On the one hand, there is genuine concern about job market competition during economic downturn, on the other, as I wrote to another commenter, the viral internet content has fried everyone’s brains (the whole world). The short form video content platforms have been especially successful in disseminating the worst negative stereotypes and people are being bombarded with the most rage-inducing reactionary content on a daily basis.

As you said yourself, the lionization of the Gang of Four and the insinuation that their reputation has been deliberately vilified by the liberal reformers is a huge taboo.

I don’t have to remind you that most of the liberal reformers were victims of the CR. Deng Xiaoping’s eldest son was pushed out of a window at Peking University and became disabled for life. Xi Jinping’s sister took her own life after constant harassment by the Red Guards. There is no way that the current leadership will allow any kind of rehabilitation of the CR.

You go on to talk about it being co-opted, but what Marxism do kids actually learn in a normal education in the PRC?

They’re practically patriotism class. They teach you the very basics of Marxism then tell you, China is still a developing socialist country and while we strive to become a communist country one day (some lecturers will say, “communist countries with high welfare such as Norway and Sweden”, not a joke) we’re not there yet, that’s why we still can’t have high welfare like the Scandinavian countries. Write a 3000-character essay about why the party is great, those sort of essays. It’s one of those classes that nobody’s into.

If you’re very lucky, you might get a genuinely good lecturer who teaches you the real stuff, but you’re otherwise getting a lecturer who’s half-assing it (and doesn’t even understand theory themselves) and like most kids, you’ll probably ended up hating the entire class.

Viral internet content has fried everyone’s brain, especially with the rise of short form videos that incentivize the most shocking/dramatic contents often showing the worst stereotypes of any country or group of people to invoke rage and emotions. As a result, all anyone knows about a particular country is reinforced by what they’ve seen on the internet. This is what people are being bombarded with daily when browsing social media apps.

We’re back to the 1920s. Germany and Japan are lockstep in this.

A lot of it is rooted in opposing the increasing number of immigrants in the country, as Japan is an aging society and needs to import foreign labor to work. Xenophobia, to put it simply.

And just to be fair, I have also seen similar sentiment growing in China (for example, videos of Indian and African labor in Guangzhou that went viral on social media recently) and the recent outburst about the K visa.

It’s the latest line of propaganda being pushed on the Chinese internet, I suspect, in response to the kids breaking the internet calling for a revival of Cultural Revolution just a few weeks ago, and also after a series of anti-Japan propaganda in the past months have faltered against the kids, who turned out to be too doomerish to be receptive to this kind of patriotism rhetoric.

Honestly I have no trouble with showing the reality of American capitalism, but if the government thinks that this is going to make the kids think “look it’s even worse in America” without substantive action to commit to wealth redistribution, then they have underestimated how doomerish the Chinese youth have gotten these days (at least the ones I’ve talked to). The tangping (lying down) movement has been growing momentum and the kids would rather be idle and live miserably than to be jingoistic against some foreign enemies.

The main item was about the Supreme Court decision to rehabiliate Nazi collaborators. The Ufa Marxist decision just happened to occur a week ago.

Also the commentator is pro-war anti-Putin Russian communist, who criticized Putin for being too soft against Ukrainian fascists. I don’t think it’s exclusive Trotskyists that think this is an issue, at least not from what I’ve gathered from the Russian communist channels. It’s going to be used against other communists in the future for sure.

They know. They needed a reason to militarize. Think 1930s Germany.

Takaichi Cabinet’s approval rate:

Went up from 69.9% since the first weeks to 75.9%

Age 18-29: 92.4% approval rate

Breakdown by age:

The far right turn is going to be the trend for the kids these days, huh.

Sure, but the trend is clear that the fascists takeover is happening. The commentary came from Russian Marxists.

As I have said before, the nationalist soft-coup has failed and the libs pretty much retook the power after their initial setback when the Ukraine war started. Russia is only going to grow more fascistic by the day unless the libs are somehow defeated.

It’s not naive, it’s a personality trait. All the great anti-colonial leaders had it, from Castro to Mandela. That’s why so many of them were political prisoners.

The more persecuted they are, the more convinced they are of their righteousness and their own ideology. If you’re not willing to go to the end of your own conviction, then you will sell out eventually. That’s where most of us mortals are at. These people are built different.

From Russian telegram:

Anti-Soviet agitation and propaganda are recognized as acts that pose no public danger, and those convicted of them are subject to rehabilitation, regardless of the factual basis of the charges. This is what the Presidium of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation, chaired by Igor Krasnov, stated after reviewing the case of an Odessa resident convicted in 1950 of treason and counterrevolutionary agitation.

While living in occupied territory, Ivan Mok voluntarily served as a village elder and carried out the instructions of the Nazi invaders. After repatriation, while in the Kirov region, he conducted anti-Soviet agitation among the local population.

The Supreme Court of the Russian Federation overturned the court rulings regarding the punishment for counterrevolutionary agitation, but upheld the sentence for treason.

Commentary:

Several days have passed since the sentencing of the five Ufa Marxists (* listed by Rosfinmonitoring as extremists and terrorists), who were given inappropriate, unrealistic prison terms in a fabricated, custom-made case. Many have noticed that the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) functionaries have stuck their tongues up their flabby, well-groomed asses. The bravest among them, without personal comment, reprinted the bourgeois media's news report about the verdict. The Zyuganovites clearly have no time for such trifles; they're busy counting how many times government members have traveled abroad and, of course, not forgetting to lay flowers at Stalin's bust.

I'm sure they won't utter a word about today's unprecedented decision—the de facto decriminalization and legitimization of anti-Soviet agitation and propaganda. And, mind you, this came not from those who cursed the Soviet regime in their hearts and told anti-Soviet jokes, but from those who aided the Nazis during the war—which, you must admit, is not quite the same thing.

Do the parliamentary Zyuganovites, who are on the payroll, understand that this is not just a hefty kick in the pants, but also an extremely dangerous precedent, essentially an open Pandora's box?

Once again. Judging by the ringing silence, few people understood what happened today.

This is more important than all the momentary fuss and bustle. This is a one-way ticket. Not for anyone in particular. For the country as a whole. For each individual and for everyone together.

The beginning of the end of Marxism in Russia. It was a good run though.

Nation steps up measures to stimulate consumption China Daily

China has been implementing targeted pro-consumption measures to spur immediate spending while advancing structural reforms to unlock sustainable consumption growth, as the country moves toward a more balanced growth model anchored by its vast domestic market, economists said.

They said that a robust and expanding consumer base not only powers China's high-quality development, but also provides a stabilizing force for the global economy amid fluctuating external demand and geopolitical complexities.

At the annual Central Economic Work Conference held last week, Chinese policymakers placed "boosting domestic demand" first among eight key priorities on the economic agenda for next year.

President Xi Jinping pointed out in an article published on Monday in Qiushi Journal, the flagship magazine of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, that expanding domestic demand is crucial not only for economic stability but also for economic security. It is not a temporary measure, but a strategic move, he said.

Xi, who is also general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, called for accelerating efforts to address weaknesses in domestic demand, especially consumption, to make domestic demand the main driving force and stabilizing anchor for economic growth.

See, President Xi agrees that consumption should be the top priority. I’ve said that I am usually 6-9 months ahead of the government agreeing with what I’m saying.

From Russian telegram:

The Russian economy grew by 0.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, Rosstat published yesterday. The GDP deflator (measuring the overall price level for all goods and services produced) stood at 106.6% in the third quarter (compared to the third quarter of last year).

These figures are generally expected. If the trend continues or increases in the fourth quarter (this is quite possible, judging by the recovery in the credit market), then GDP growth by the end of 2025 could be ±1%. This result would be the lowest in the past two years. In 2023 and 2024, the Russian economy expanded by 4.1% and 4.3%, respectively (for comparison, there was a 1% decline in 2022).

Growth of 1% is still growth, but questions remain about the extent to which it reflects the real state of the economy. We have written repeatedly that the high key rate is affecting the growth of the financial sector, which produces nothing. Furthermore, Rosstat incorrectly calculates the deflator index when calculating the output of commercial bank services. But that's a separate topic.

Biggest throw of the decade! I have no words.

But who are they going to redirect to? The other exporting countries? In order to afford the turnips, those other exporting countries will have to run a deficit (which would be the opposite of Exportia’s very successful export-led growth strategy) and offset their losses by selling even more of their stuff at a cheaper rate to Importia to earn Alpha.

Remember, in an economy, value comes from labor, or what Marx called ”socially necessary labor time”. Whose labor is working for whom? Who gets to extract the surplus value?

The real propaganda is exactly that Exportia thinks it controls all the turnip production, but in reality its labor are the ones producing and shipping the turnips over to Importia for over 20 years in exchange for Importia’s shares - a number. And if they couldn’t sell? The workers lose their jobs and the factories shut down. Huge misallocation of capital, labor and resources.

It’s the same kind of propaganda in plays out in our lives: you can laugh at how your landlord doesn’t even know how to grow his own food, doesn’t know any valuable skills, cannot do anything on his own, yet at the end of the day, you’re paying rent - with your hard earned money - for your landlord to enjoy all those things who never have to work a single day in his life because… that’s the point! He simply has a financial claim over the land you’re dwelling.

If you come to the question of: why don’t the tenants just rise up and purge the landlord who contributes nothing to the society, then you’re asking the right question. Why don’t people just do that? The answer is the same as why most countries don’t do that the the rent-seeking landlord empire.

BREAKING: Putin is in love Sina News

From today’s Q&A where Putin answered more than 80 questions over 4 hours, on all sorts of topics. And yes, Putin admits that he is currently in love, and it was a love at first sight too.

In light of the recent trade surplus topic, I am reminded of this Neil Wilson’s short parable: A Tale of Two Nations from a few years back that hopefully should illuminate from an MMT perspective that the IMF’s so-called “export led growth” is really just an imperialist exploitation of the developing nations.

Once you start shifting the perspective and think in real terms, the interpretation becomes very different!

Prologue

spoiler

The nation of Importia, so named because it believes itself to be important, had a long and illustrious history. Blessed with natural resources it had developed advanced techniques in production, PR and marketing and, largely due to the latter two rather than the former, had become the centre of turnip production worldwide.

The owners in Importia grew wealthy and, with bribes of extra turnips, were able to transform some of their more mathematical PR specialists into a priesthood they named “Economists”. These Economists praised the efforts of the owners, in particular their daily practice of trickling down on those that did the actual work.

Eventually the natural resources of Importia started to weaken, and the workers became restless — demanding more Alpha (the currency of Importia) so they could buy an extra half-turnip between them. The owners were very displeased and turned to the Economists, demanding they come up with another wheeze to pull the wool over the eyes of the proles.

So the Economists quietly withdrew and drew strange symbols on blackboards in the belief that was slightly more effective than looking for clouds that look like ducks. The operating principle was the same though.

Eventually, after remembering they were marketeers not scientists, they came up with the answer — export-led growth. They would sell more turnips to elsewhere in the world. Just one problem. Nobody else had any Alpha to buy the turnips.

—-

How would they solve this problem?

spoiler

At this time another nation of the world had arisen in a stunningly convenient manner. The leaders of this nation were keen to join modernity and had heard of the new fashion for export-led growth. They invited the Economists of Importia to speak to them and, like a fox entering a hen coop, they accepted with gusto.

So impressed were the leaders of the new nation with the proposals, that they named their country Exportia in honour, and thereby neatly avoided an even more contrived plot device.

The production of turnips would move to Exportia, exploiting the fresh natural resources and willing Prana fueled workforce. Exportia would then sell the turnips to Importia for Alpha. To avoid the dreaded “Dutch Disease” that the Economists warned about in the most serious of tones, Exportia would maintain a sovereign wealth fund by investing in the assets of Importia with their Alpha.

It was very fortunate that the workers of Exportia could exist on praise, pats on the head and Prana, otherwise this mildly amusing parable would rapidly become a rather dull treatise on Calculus.

Which, funnily enough, is precisely the tool the Economists used to give their wheezes an unwarranted air of gravitas.

—-

Epilogue

spoiler

And so the workers of Importia were dismissed, the turnip fields ploughed up and replaced with shanty towns. The once proud workforce existed on a handout of far less than one turnip, supplied as charity from the owners, when once they had aspired to one and a half.

The owners of Importia continued to have as many turnips as before, and kept the turnip ration of the Economists high so they would continue to espouse the virtues of export led growth.

And growth there was indeed. The owners of Importia, on the advice of the Economists, had securitised their holdings and split them into a 100 million shares. During the first period the price was 100 Alpha per share and the Exportia wealth fund, mindful of the warnings of the Economists to invest, spent their 10,000 Alpha earnings from turnip sales on 100 shares in Importia. Their net worth zoomed from nothing to 10,000 Alpha overnight.

The leaders of Exportia were ecstatic and they nearly gave themselves an injury patting themselves on their back.

The next year Exportia earned another 10,000 Alpha selling their turnips to the owners in Importia — from whom they had bought the shares. This year though there were fewer shares to buy and the owners in Importia were slightly more reluctant to sell. The price crept up to 100.01 per share and the Wealth fund of Exportia dutifully bought 99 more shares in Importia.

The leaders of Exportia were ecstatic again. They now had 199 shares in Importia and due to share price growth they were 4 Alpha better off already than they were when they started the new regime. Export led growth clearly led to very great riches.

And so it went on. After 20 years Exportia had managed to amass 1783 shares in Importia and the wealth fund was up to 178,618 Alpha . The leaders were very pleased with themselves. How much wealth they had created from nothing just by following the Wise Economists sage advice.

A little boy had pointed out that the owners in Importia appeared to be just as wealthy in Alpha as they ever had been, even though they now owned fewer shares, and received all the turnips, even though they did nothing for them other than bestow the odd turnip on the ex-workers of Importia.

But nobody listened to the boy. After all, the previous week he’d said that the leaders had been walking around naked when it was patently obvious they were dressed in the finest clothes.

That story, though, is for another day.

First published 12 Mar 2017

Sorry didn’t see your tagging. As I said this is a very well known issue, the government surely understands it. They have all the experts working on the problems after all. The question is what is the solution to the problem? And the answer depends on which “school” of economics they are coming from.

My position is this: I believe that supply-side reform is treating the symptom, the root cause of the disease is wealth inequality. And the solution I propose is full employment through government deficit spending, provide social security and perhaps the hardest of all, wealth redistribution.

xiaohongshu [none/use name]

@ xiaohongshu @hexbear.net

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Prologue

How would they solve this problem?

Epilogue

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Zohran Mamdani Wins New York With a Youthquake

Ridiculous Chinese censorship used AI to change the gay couple in Together (2025) to a heterosexual couple

Average working hours dropped drastically after 1917, due to fear that the Russian Revolution would inspire similar revolutions in other countries