Well obviously a thermonuclear war is not good for business. However do not make the grievous mistake of thinking that Trump is a mere pawn in the oligarch's game who can be relied on to act rationally in their self-interest. He's done their bidding aplenty, but he's also doing a lot of stuff that weakens him, his buddies, and his country, just because he's so fucking dumb and vain. Like invading Greenland, a country he already had full access to for military purposes and that US companies were always welcome to exploit for minerals. His generals are literally using every trick in the book to try to redirect his attention away from Greenland because the US has literally no interest – military, financial, or geopolitical – in it. Literally the only explanation for this fixation of his is that Greenland looks big on a Mercator projection and that makes his tiny dick hard.
M.A.D. only works when all actors:
- Have reliable information (certainly not always true, see Stanislav Petrov)
- Can be assumed to be acting in their own self-interest
Number 1 is in doubt with Trump because he and his cult spend a lot of time in a made-up reality. I can totally see some war hawks explaining to him that the UK and France don't have the nuclear capacity to glass the entire continental US outright, and Trump interpreting it as "we're untouchable" because he's not into concepts such as "nuance". To a degree the same is true of a dictator like Putin or Xi Xinping who are also surrounded by yes men who purposefully feed an enabling narrative (see also: Putin's decision to invade Ukraine because he thought he could get away with it).
Number 2 is simply completely incorrect. Trump is so unpredictable even his own administration can't guess his next move – they're constantly acting on his latest rant and doing a poor job of pretending it was part of the plan all along. I'd love to believe that he can be deterred by the thread of M.A.D, but I'm unfortunately too acutely aware of the news to lie to myself like that. That's the main difference between him and Putin – I can actually believe that Putin will only act in what he believes to be his self-interest, and he knows a nuclear exchange ain't it.
Can't easily prove a negative but here's an example.
Emphasis mine. Albert Dumon "did his job" (the French version of the article goes a bit more in-depth). He didn't overtly defy the orders given to him under the threat of immediate execution (!). He didn't quit his job knowing that if he didn't drive the trains a German train driver would take his place. He followed the regulations to the letter of the law, as incompetently as he could afford. And his malicious compliance saved 118 lives.