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Cunigulus [they/them]

@ Cunigulus @hexbear.net

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35
Joined
4 yr. ago

  • Locked

    Bulletins and International News Discussion from November 10th to November 16th, 2025 - The Trials and Tribulations of Tinubu - COTW: Nigeria

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  • Honestly I think everyone in the West except the US is going to be fine, and the US will eventually be ok because of how rich we already are. Europe has some cultural issues to work through to be sure, and there's plenty of potential for violence to emerge, but it's really only the US that is overly dependent on these super profits with a completely hollowed-out economy. The UK is kind of in the same position, but is already well into the process of collapse. The US has just kept growing on the parasitism and letting everything else atrophy and it's going to be in for the biggest shock when the global economy shakes it loose.

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from November 10th to November 16th, 2025 - The Trials and Tribulations of Tinubu - COTW: Nigeria

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  • How free and fair are these elections? Could there be widespread fraud or is it a very open and regulated process? Is there just a lot of foreign-sponsored propaganda driving support for the various blocs? It seems from your analysis that things are slowly getting a bit less sectarian, which on its own is probably a good thing, but that this is occurring in the direction the propaganda press is pushing. In other words people are tired of conflict along the lines that are drawn, and the easiest way to negate that seems to be to just vote the way media tells them. From a leftist perspective, maybe all this sectarian conflict has to die down so that political divisions along class lines can resurface. That this negation can emerge simply from the establishment asserting itself is actually convenient.

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from November 10th to November 16th, 2025 - The Trials and Tribulations of Tinubu - COTW: Nigeria

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  • Caracas is very defensible if enough forces are mobilized. You'd probably have to assemble an infantry force of over 100,000 just to occupy it after you use whatever airpower to assault the city and wear down the defenses. I think it would require too many boots on the ground to supply them all by air, so you're going to have to secure one of a few roads through forested mountain passes up from the coast, and those come in across town from many of the most important places you'd want to focus your occupation forces. If the Venezuelans have even a little backbone it's a very difficult job even with overwhelming technological superiority and air dominance. Maracaibo and the oil fields would be a doable target, but actually I don't think occupying Caracas is possible without mobilizing a much larger force. Honestly it might be straight up impossible for the US military to do in it's current state.

    Now some kind of decapitation strike followed by an attempt to install a puppet with limited special operations forces and air strikes might be something that feels a bit more feasible for the US military to attempt, but I kind of doubt they'll be able to pull off the second part. Venezuelans aren't necessarily happy with their current situation, but they're definitely not going to be happy with the US murdering a bunch of people and bombing their country. There are also deep class and racial divides in the country that underlie its politics and uphold Chavismo's grip on the country. If you fracture the country on those lines, the more white comprador sections of the country will probably just lose. If the US were smart they'd find some Afro-Venezuelan face for their puppet government, but then that would probably alienate their supporters too much.

    I think Rubio wants to overthrow the Venezuelan government by force, and he might be powerful enough to push through some kind of stupid decapitation operation that just devolves into a complete mess. I think there are plenty of saner heads in the Pentagon and Washington establishment that are trying to gently push back or slow-walk this confrontational policy, so it's kind of up to Trump's whim whether it happens or not. The fact that it hasn't happened yet, after all of this provocation, makes me think it's less likely that anything will happen, and some shiny new toy project for US foreign policy will come along in the mean time and we'll forget about this like we forgot about the bajillion times Bush and Obama threatened war with North Korea.

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from November 3rd to November 9th, 2025 - The 47th ASEAN Summit + Trump and Xi's Deal

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  • They can just attach a million drones to balloons and send them over in waves to overwhelm our air defenses. I don't think long range strikes against the US mainland would be that difficult for China if they had a little time, resources, and motivation. If the US stays in the war after getting pushed out of the West Pacific I could see them needing a credible capability to strike targets in the US as a means of encouraging a negotiated end to the conflict. If it drags on longer they'll just build a thousand ship fleet and take whatever they need. This is kind of a repeat of Japan and the US, but in reverse. China has overwhelming superiority in manpower and industry so it's really just a question of how far things have to go before the US gives up and whether nuclear weapons are used this time.

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from November 3rd to November 9th, 2025 - The 47th ASEAN Summit + Trump and Xi's Deal

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  • Wow, that's actually terrifying. A big war would be baaad for me as an American, and it looks like it's coming. Hopefully the military leadership here is smart enough to back down and the political leadership can take it on the chin and make peace quickly after they're defeated in the West Pacific. I really don't want my home town getting burned down by drone swarms.

  • Amerikkka Election Night Special 2025 [a thread]

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  • Doesn't look like it now, he seems to have surpassed the Sliwa factor

  • Amerikkka Election Night Special 2025 [a thread]

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  • Coverage I was watching mentioned that Staten Island reported disproportionately early, which had a lot of Cuomo votes.

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from October 27th to November 2nd, 2025 - The War on Health + Further Latin America Escalations

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  • Very much looks like a case of "how cheaply can we spin up a drone that looks convincing enough to get us a DoD contract at 400 million per"

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from October 27th to November 2nd, 2025 - The War on Health + Further Latin America Escalations

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  • The Venezuelans have had some surprisingly effective intelligence in the the US, most notably through double-agents. If they learn with a high degree of certainty that a strike is coming they need to prepare to strike first to hit whatever they can because they'll lose all significant air and naval capabilities within a couple of days anyway. Playing like good little boys and waiting until most of your offensive capability gets wiped out is worthless, even politically. They don't have the kind of deep strategic reserve that, say Iran has, they have a relatively small and moderately capable conventional navy and air force that they can probably score some hits with, or let get blown up in port/hanger. Sinking a destroyer or two, knocking out an AWACS platform, cratering a runway, all of these things could have useful impact on military operations and more importantly, would rally the people to defend their country and prevent the US from getting the cheap easy victory they must be imagining. If things get kinetic it's use it or lose it for those assets. Get a couple of symbolic wins and prepare the ground forces to defend the central plateau and harass any landing in the Maracaibo region. Their air defense can't really hold up and deter air strikes for long, but they can prevent successful airborne operations if they can muster and disperse their ground forces to defend critical areas. If they let the navy and air force get wiped out with nothing to show for it, there's a very real risk that the army and militias just roll over and allow some sort of Special Ops-led coup.

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from October 20th to October 26th, 2025 - The Fall of Boluarte - COTW: Peru

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  • I ran into my friend's cousin today, who lives in a more rural area of our state. He says the local medical facilities there are no longer capable of delivering babies. This is in a community of over 10,000 people which serves as a 'urban' hub for maybe 100,000. Mothers have to take a two hour drive when they go into labor or arrange potentially dangerous alternatives. Women have given birth on the side of the highway on the way to the bigger hospital in another part of the state. This isn't a particularly poor or undeveloped area of the US, just rural enough that these serious problems have emerged. They have doctors and medical facilities, but delivering babies, probably the most important and ancient form of health care, is beyond their capabilities in this system. What. The. Fuck.

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from October 20th to October 26th, 2025 - The Fall of Boluarte - COTW: Peru

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  • This whole thing is so dumb. What do they expect to accomplish? Chavismo is built on the basis of very real racial and class divisions in Venezuelan society. They can't decapitate the regime and expect to be able to install a puppet. They're not going to invade and occupy the capitol. They might be able to destroy the Venezuelan Navy and Air Force and occupy the main oil producing region, but that itself would be an Iraq-war scale effort and I don't think they have the will to expend those kind of resources. I just can't figure out what they're really planning here. Do they want to do a strike like they did on Iran with no real strategic impact just for show? We're seeing a fair number of these 'nothing ever happens' mini-wars like the recent exchange between India and Pakistan. The extreme violence in Ukraine and Palestine is showing people that you can have a little war as a treat and nothing will come of it. It's like we're playing Hearts of Iron and world tension is a real thing.

    Maybe we have to look at the internal politics of the Trump administration. Hegseth has really got a grip on the War Department and Rubio at State wants to throw the Gusanos a bone and this is what these idiots have come up with and there's just no sane figure with enough backbone in the government to stand up and say 'this is fucking crazy, this will not work, all we can do is create chaos and uncertainty and embarrass ourselves, possibly ruining our geopolitical position in Latin America permanently'. To be fair that's a hard case to make, look at how much the Arab nations have debased themselves allowing Israel to commit genocide with absolute impunity. These assholes then take a look at Latin America and see no military power with any experience or real competence able to stand up to them at all and think they can bully the right into power wherever they want. Are they right? I'm not so sure.

    Part of the deal throughout the Cold War was that military conflicts never escalated beyond internal repression, direct US intervention was limited, and no one had to worry about a big war. If the US goes and gets one going they'll force the whole continent to respond, and given the current global climate and long-term geopolitical trajectory I don't think the response will be favorable to the US.

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from October 13th to October 19th, 2025 - Escalating Against The Bolivarian Revolution

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  • Why the hell, apart from terrible racism, would you want to curtail the birthrate in Greenland? If you're going to do anything useful in the territory you're going to need a lot more people.

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from October 13th to October 19th, 2025 - Escalating Against The Bolivarian Revolution

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  • Honestly we might miss Trump before all of this is over. Do you think Vance could stand up to Netanyahu this way? The next fascist to occupy the White House probably won't have the power to resist the imperialist logic of war and genocide.

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from October 6th to October 12th, 2025 - A New Revolutionary Wave?

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  • These "Gen Z" revolutions sound pretty color revolutiony to me. Can't judge though until things play out. I think geopolitical rivalries are heating up ahead of the big game over Taiwan coming up in a year or two. I see increasing signs that China has resigned itself to the reality of military confrontation and they're planning on starting things off on their own initiative. The US for its part seems to be preparing for 2027-28, but measures seem a bit half-assed and insufficient. It seems like there are planners in the US military who realize that it's just not going to work, but the political leadership isn't really willing to entertain that notion just yet. China meanwhile is catching up in military technology at a rapid pace and has so much spare industrial capacity that they can easily use to flood US defenses with autonomous weapons systems. I just really hope the US backs down, and if things get hot between the US and China, I hope we pull out of the conflict before the Chinese start hitting the mainland US in earnest. If the US stays in I think it's pretty likely we'll see mass destruction of our cities by drone swarms, even if the conflict doesn't go nuclear. The US is a rich nation, even without the imperial exploitation, much like Britain, it simply isn't worth it to go all in on holding on to imperial power - even more so than Britain because we're bigger and richer and more capable of autarkic development. A lot is going to depend on the mindsets of the individuals in decision-making positions.

    Anyway, sorry for the rant, this stuff has been on my mind lately.

  • Liberals really think not only will the Epstein shit see the light of day, but also it will bring down the Drumpf Empire.

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  • I do think there's like a 10% chance things get out of hand in the next 10 years and all this stuff gets dumped on the public in the context of various factions of the security state and political establishment flailing against each other. Things will get pretty messy after the decline really picks up pace and it becomes clear that there's no military solution to preserving empire.

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from October 6th to October 12th, 2025 - A New Revolutionary Wave?

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  • This reminds me of crypto in that the only real impact is to massively drive up demand for electricity which serves to create a very convoluted movement of value into the hands of ??? speculators? investors in energy companies? fossil fuel producers?

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from September 29th to October 5th, 2025 - International Solidarity at the SMG - COTW: Ghana

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  • One thing people don't consider much is the geography of Venezuela. It would be relatively easy for the US to seize the oil-producing Maracaibo region, but the capital and other major cities are separated from the Caribbean by an impassable mountain range. Not an easy feat to occupy Caracas.

  • Trump’s NSPM-7 Labels Common Beliefs As Terrorism “Indicators”

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  • Very critical to point out that this 4,000 member task force is not going to be enough to meaningfully enforce mass censorship and political repression across the country. It'll be a gradual roll-out with the fascists seeking to make an example of groups and individuals that present themselves as easy or particularly prominent targets to try to scare everyone else into submission. That'll backfire and they won't really have the resources to handle the backlash without a pretty major mobilization.

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from September 22nd to September 28th, 2025 - Destabilization in the Caribbean, and the Zionist Imperial Boomerang - COTW: Haiti

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  • That's the excuse. His comments about there being "No Master Race, No Chosen People of God" were a pretty clear and powerful message against Zionism. I think they're just punishing him for that.