Japan to install missiles near Taiwan: Are China tensions set to spike?

Some excerpts from the article:

Japan’s decision represents a “calculated escalation that will increase regional tensions,”

Yonaguni sits at the southwestern edge of Japan’s territory [occupied Ryukyu], close enough to Taiwan to see its coastline on a clear day [and hundreds of kilometers away from actual Japan].

“This is the continuation of a process under way since at least Shinzo Abe’s 2014 reinterpretation of collective self-defence,” [...] “Each step was presented as modest and defensive: coastal surveillance on Yonaguni in 2016, missiles on Ishigaki in 2023, electronic warfare units, and now this,”

“As for the timing, Japan is making this announcement now because the window for military build-up without major consequences is perceived to be closing – China’s capabilities are growing rapidly, and there’s certainly a sense in Tokyo that if it doesn’t establish these forward positions now, it may not be able to later,”

“From China’s perspective, the sequence of events is clear: Japan, under a newly emboldened Prime Minister Takaichi, is aggressively militarising and interfering in the Taiwan question to curry favour with the United States,”

China has already taken economic steps. It recently restricted exports to 40 Japanese entities that it said contribute to Japan’s “remilitarisation”. The Commerce Ministry placed 20 firms on an export control list and added another 20 to a watchlist. [...] “If further provocations occur, China will extend sanctions to the civilian side, which could literally stop Japanese automobile production. Possibly one of the reasons for the 2031 deployment date,”

China has been Japan’s largest trading partner since 2005. Bilateral trade reached $322bn in 2024, and China accounts for roughly one-fifth of Japan’s total exports and imports. Japan runs a substantial trade deficit with China, importing about $43bn more annually than it exports. [...] “Japan cannot simultaneously militarise against China and maintain the economic relationship that its prosperity depends on. At some point, Tokyo will have to choose, and Beijing is trying to make that choice become as obvious as possible,”