A warning from Estonia: Russia’s economy is spiraling downward, but Moscow is still stockpiling for the ‘next war’
A warning from Estonia: Russia’s economy is spiraling downward, but Moscow is still stockpiling for the ‘next war’
A warning from Estonia: Russia’s economy is spiraling downward, but Moscow is still stockpiling for the ‘next war’ — Meduza
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/50715800
Russia is unlikely to attack any NATO member in the near future, but plans to continue its war against Ukraine, according to Estonia’s annual international security report. Published by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) on Tuesday, the report focuses almost exclusively on Russia, warning that the Kremlin is actively preparing for its “next war.”
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According to the Estonian assessment, the Kremlin “merely feigns interest” in peace talks aimed at ending the war with Ukraine. Russia hopes to restore bilateral relations with the United States and “formalize Ukraine’s defeat,” the report says. At the same time, EFIS maintains that Moscow continues to view Washington “as its principal adversary.”
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Referring to China and Russia as “allies without a treaty,” the report says that both countries are trying to tip the global balance of power in their favor. The EFIS characterizes frequent consultations between Moscow and Beijing as an attempt to “mitigate the risk” of one side striking a deal with the U.S. “behind the other’s back.”
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Although under strain from international sanctions, Russia’s military-industrial complex continues to function thanks to sanctions evasion schemes that keep dual-use goods flowing into the country, the report notes.
The report also notes that since 2021, Russia’s military-industrial complex has increased artillery ammunition production more than seventeenfold. According to the EFIS, this indicates that Russia is “highly likely” to rebuild its stockpiles in preparation for future conflict, even as the war against Ukraine continues.
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Russia is facing increasingly severe economic problems and continues to neglect nearly all non-military sectors, the report says. EFIS predicts that Russia’s GDP will contract in 2026, raising the risk of economic and social instability.
The report says that the Russian economy has “entered a downturn” and would likely still face serious problems even if the war were to end and sanctions were lifted. As the defense sector expands at the expense of the civilian economy, nearly all other sectors are in recession or stagnating.
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Meanhwile, The Moscow Times reports that Russian companies are increasingly moving employees to part-time work amid worsening economic conditions.
The number of partially employed workers in Russia now stands at its highest level in over a decade, [the pro-Kremlin daily] Izvestia said, citing an analysis of Rosstat data by Moscow-based auditing network FinExpertiza.
While the official unemployment rate is currently hovering around 2.2%, the surge in part-time work highlights the hidden strain on Russia’s economy as the invasion of Ukraine nears its four-year mark.
Some 5.5 million Russians were classified as partially employed in the third quarter of 2025, up 12% from the previous quarter and the highest figure since 2015.
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