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Cake day: January 29th, 2025

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  • This is not about “China vs USA”. The US (or the EU, or any other continent, bloc, and country) has nothing to do with this issue, may it “suck” or not.

    There is a good video documentary. It is from 2021, but still very accurate and worth watching.

    How Tim Cook Surrendered Apple to the Chinese Government – (Invidious link)

    Apple is making billions of dollars integrating into countries with authoritarian regimes. Even if it means helping to cement the power of the ruling elite or enabling egregious abuse of human rights. And there doesn’t seem to be anything Apple wouldn’t do for the sake of growth and expansion. Apple cites compliance with local laws as the reason for giving human rights abuse a go. But the actions of the most valuable company in the world go far beyond compliance with the law.

    (Here is the original YT link to the video.)

    [Edit typo and for clarity.]





























  • Inflation, devaluation, reduced incomes: Russia’s economy in an era of falling oil prices - [April 2025]

    Russia’s oil and gas revenues have already fallen by 10% — and that may be just the beginning. Oil prices are sliding amid fears of a global economic slowdown triggered by the US-China tariff war, along with rising production from OPEC+ countries. Goldman Sachs warns that in a worst-case scenario, oil could plunge to $40 a barrel by 2026. Even the bank’s more moderate forecast isn’t much better: $55 a barrel. For Russia, that could mean: at best; another round of inflation and ruble devaluation; and at worst, a banking crisis and industrial shock.

    In response to the decline in oil revenues, the authorities may also choose to cut spending. The Russian government has its own unique methods for doing this, as Mikhaylova points out: shifting the state’s responsibilities onto businesses. “This is already happening. For example, large enterprises — whether state-owned, municipal, or private — are being forced to hire those who are going to war as mercenaries, paying them salaries from company funds,” [one expert] explains. If budget revenues continue to fall, this will likely become more common.

    According to [another expert], all of these measures lead to inflation, and if oil prices stay low for an extended period, Russia will face a real crisis: “It’s unlikely we’ll see empty store shelves like in the late Soviet Union, or widespread wage non-payments like in the early '90s. Since the government prints money and the macroeconomic team is fairly pragmatic, we’re more likely to follow in the footsteps of Argentina and Turkey — maintaining a market economy, but one that’s growing increasingly poorer.”



  • Yes, and many economists (inside and outside Russia) estimate that there will be no real GDP growth this year, maybe not even a nominal growth. Russia’s National Wealth Fund -which has been used to cover up the country’s budget deficit from 2022-2024- could run out of cash by the end of 2025: the NWF’s liquid portion stood at 32% at the end of 2024, down from 42% in 2023, and 58% in 2022.

    In 2025, military spending is likely to exceed oil and gas revenues for the first time in Russia’s history. In the 2000s, for example, military spending reached 30-35% of oil and gas revenue.

    [Edit typo.]






  • The diaspora vote is particularly favourable to the far right in the countries where Romanian expatriates are most numerous, namely in Western Europe …

    “Their vote is a protest vote against the traditional parties, which are seen as corrupt,” explained Antonela Cappelle-Pogacean, a researcher at Sciences-Po and a specialist in Romania.

    “But it’s also a vote with socio-economic motivations, since in these Western societies, members of the Romanian diaspora are to be found among the working classes. Finally, it’s also a vote about identity, since the integration of these people is sometimes difficult, and they are in a way torn between their rebuilt lives and their desire to return to Romania.”

    East-west split

    In Eastern European countries such as Poland, Moldova and Hungary, however, the pro-European candidate Nicusor Dan came first.

    This result can be explained by Simion’s hostile stance on sending military aid to Ukraine, and by the pro-Russian stance of Calin Georgescu, the candidate who topped the poll in November and whose legacy the leader of the Alliance for Romanian Unity claims to inherit.

    The diaspora vote is therefore directly linked to the economic and geopolitical context of the countries where Romanian expatriates live.