2024 US Senate Races Megapost! 53 R - 47 D. Final!

NBC is now calling a flip in the Senate

53 R / 47 D&I

PA flipped R.

I wanted to keep the discussion on the House and Senate races separate. The Presidential thread will be busy enough!

I'm not crazy enough to parse 435 House seats, but I did do the Senate races:

https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/

"There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents."

AZ - Kyrsten Sinema - I - Not RunningRuben Gallego - D - Seems likely to win. Lake is nuts.Kari Lake - RCalled for Gallego

This wouldn't flip the seat as Sinema caucuses with the Democrats.

FL - Rick Scott - RDebbie Mucarsel-Powell - D.Rick Scott - Safe R.Called for Scott

Former RNC head Michael Steele says this is one to watch, Scott may be on the chopping block. Polling doesn't show that and with Trump having home state advantage, I don't see a split ticket there.

MD - Ben Cardin - D - Not RunningAngela Alsobrooks - Safe D.Larry Hogan - RCalled for Alsobrooks

MI - Debbie Stabenow - D - Not RunningElissa Slotkin - Safe D.Mike Rogers - RCalled for Slotkin

MT - Jon Tester - DJon Tester - DTim Sheehy - R - Ahead in polling.Called for Sheehy

Likely flip D to R, despite the fact that Tester is well liked in MT. Polling is giving Sheehy the edge.

NV - Jacky Rosen - DJacky Rosen - Safe D.Sam Brown - RCalled for Rosen

OH - Sherrod Brown - DSherrod Brown - D.Bernie Moreno - RCalled for Moreno - Flipping

Tossup. Brown leads in 4/5 polls, but it's a margin of error lead. Moreno is up in the most recent polling.

PA - Bob Casey - DBob Casey - Safe D.David McCormick - RCalled for McCormick - this is the first race I missed. :(

TX - Ted Cruz - RColin Allred - DTed Cruz - Safe R.Called for Cruz

Allred is up in only one poll, if the Cancun thing didn't sink Cruz, nothing will. Texas is gonna Texas.

WI - Tammy Baldwin - DTammy Baldwin - Safe D.Eric Hovde - RCalled for Baldwin

WV - Joe Manchin - I - Not RunningGlenn Elliott - DJim Justice - Safe R.Called for Justice

The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.

CA - Laphonza Butler - D - Not RunningAdam Schiff - Safe D.Steve Garvey - R.Called for Schiff

CT - Chris Murphy - DChris Murphy - Safe D.Matt Corey - R.Called for Murphy

DE - Tom Carper - D - Not RunningLisa Blunt Rochester - Safe D.Eric Hansen - R.Called for Rochester

HI Mazie Hirono - DMazie Hirono - Safest D that ever D'd.Bob McDermott - RCalled for Hirono

IN - Mike Braun - R - Running for Gov.Valerie McCray - D.Jim Banks - Safe R.Called for Banks

MA - Elizabeth Warren - DElizabeth Warren - Safe D.John Deaton - R.Called for Warren

ME - Angus King - IDavid Costello - D.Demi Kouzounas - R.Angus King - Safe I, Caucuses with D's.Called for King

MN - Amy Klobuchar - DAmy Klobuchar - Safe D.Royce White - R.Called for Klobuchar

MO - Josh Hawley - RLucas Kunce - D.Josh Hawley - Safe R.Called for Hawley

MS - Roger Wicker - RTy Pinkins - DRoger Wicker - Safe R.Called for Wicker

ND - Kevin Cramer - RKatrina Christiansen - D.Kevin Cramer - Safe R.Called for Cramer

NE - Deb Fischer - RDeb Fischer - Safe R.Dan Osborn - ICalled for Fischer

Osborn is making this a nail biter, but I don't see a steady red state going I.

NE - Pete Ricketts - RPreston Love - D.Pete Ricketts - Safe R.Called for Ricketts

NJ - George Helmy - D - Not Running, replaced Menendez.Andy Kim - Safe D.Curtis Bashaw - R.Called for Kim

NM - Martin Heinrich - DMartin Heinrich - Safe D.Nella Domenici - R.Called for Heinrich

NY - Kirsten Gillibrand - DKirsten Gillibrand - Safe D.Mike Sapraicone - R.Called for Gillibrand

RI - Sheldon Whitehouse - DSheldon Whitehouse - Safe D.Patricia Morgan - R.Called for Whitehouse

TN - Marsha Blackburn - RGloria Johnson - D.Marsha Blackburn - Safe R.Called for Blackburn

UT - Mitt Romney - R - Not RunningCaroline Gleich - D.John Curtis - Safe R.Called for Curtis

VA - Tim Kaine - DTim Kaine - Safe D.Hung Cao - R.Called for Kaine

VT - Bernie Sanders - IBernie Sanders - Safe I.Gerald Malloy - R.Called for Sanders

WA - Maria Cantwell - DMaria Cantwell - Safe D.Raul GarciaCalled for Cantwell

WY - John Barrasso - RScott Morrow - D.John Barrasso - Safe R.Called for Barrasso

So...

Ind. -> D +1 (Sinema, no real change)D -> R +1 (Montana) - Flipped R.Ind. -> R +1 (Manchin) - Flipped R.Tossup - OH - Flipped R.

Ohio and Montana are going to be the races to watch. Right now, the Senate is split 49 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 4 Independents Caucusing with Democrats (Sinema, Manchin, King, and Sanders).

As VP, Harris casts the tie breaking vote which gives the Democrats the majority in the Senate, Committee controls, etc. etc. etc.

So if Montana flips. 50 R, 46 D + 4 I = 50. VP is the tie breaker.

WV flips with Manchin's seat going R. 51 R, 46 D + 3 I = 49. Democrats are out of the majority.

AZ flips with Sinema's seat going D. 51 R, 47 D + 2 I = 49. Doesn't change the math as Sinema caucused with the Democrats.

OH flipped R, 52 R vs. 46 D + 2 I = 48.

PA flipped, which I did NOT see coming. 53 R now, still AZ outstanding. Best case would be 47.

NE is a wildcard if it flips from R to I. 51 R vs. 46 D + 3 I = 49.

However you slice it though, it looks like Democrats will lose the majority in the Senate.