Considering it is a popular talking point, what context is necessary to understand it?

  • loathsome dongeater@lemmygrad.ml
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    4
    ·
    23 hours ago

    The problems China faces in its course of development are historically unique. If you assume that China needed to curb its population growth, there aren’t any historical precedents of family planning at such a massive scale to take cues from. I don’t know the details of the one child policy and it’s like that some suffered under it, but it has been a success. An initiative like this will have some degree of “authoritarianism” in it but there hasn’t been a more successful campaign of this sort in the history of humankind.

    There was a time when India tried to do something like this but worse. Around the 1980s, the Congress government during the period of national emergency tried to do forced sterilisation of poor men in poor areas:

    The Uttawar forced sterilisations were mass vasectomy drives on November 6, 1976, imposed on the male population of Uttawar, a Meo Muslim-majority village in Palwal district (then part of Gurgaon district), Haryana, during India’s Emergency (1975–1977) imposed by then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. Villagers woke up to the sound of police loudspeakers at 03:00. The police gathered 400 men at the bus stop. In the process of finding more villagers, police broke into homes and looted. This event made international news and is today remembered as one of the most coercive and controversial episodes of Sanjay Gandhi’s programme of compulsory sterilisation, which resulted in over 800 sterilisation cases.

    Obviously they had to stop doing this because it was highly unpopular. Since then family planning initiatives involve mostly playing PSAs on public radio about condoms and other such less effective measures.

  • Comprehensive49@lemmygrad.ml
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    14
    ·
    edit-2
    1 day ago

    Here’s a previous discussion on Lemmygrad on the topic: https://lemmygrad.ml/post/230769

    Here’s a great article on the topic: https://goodsforthepeople.substack.com/p/the-great-chinese-famine-one-child

    TLDR: Historically, China, like India, had constant famines due to having way too many people, such that any small natural disaster that wiped out a few rice fields would kill a couple hundred million. China implemented the One-Child Policy in order to prevent these India-style issues of having too many people fighting over too few resources, which could have destabilized development. In a way, young people are liabilities because they must be given jobs (ideally better jobs than those of their parents). If the country’s economy is not adapting fast enough to give them those jobs, then they become a source of instability.

    From the perspective of the Mao era, there was no guarantee that China’s economy would rise as quickly as it did, so from their perspective, this was a very logical choice. The demographic transition model (that birth rates naturally fall as industrial development increases) that Westoids use to denigrate China’s One-Child Policy did not exist as a cohesive theory back then, so there were no examples to show that the problem could fix itself and did not require an enforced One-Child Policy.

    When I talk to my relatives in China, they still think that the Chinese population is a little too high. They would actually prefer for it to fall by ~200 million so that competition is less intense and there is more to go around for everyone.

    Also remember the Parenti quote about western media’s constant negativity. If China did not implement the One-Child Policy, western media would be constantly complaining about Asiatic hordes and India-like deprivation in China due to too many people fighting over too few resources. In the past, Western media straight-up did this, creating tons of Asiatic horde propaganda cartoons in the U.S.

    Since China has implemented the One-Child Policy, they instead complain about the historical cruelty of the policy.

    • ComradeSalad@lemmygrad.ml
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      10
      ·
      1 day ago

      Seeing as how the CPC completely did away with the policy in June of 2021, along with instituting incentives to get people to have more kids, hoping for the population to fall by 200 million is pretty fantastical at this point. Hopefully competition continues to fall naturally with the exponential development China’s still experiencing.

      • Comprehensive49@lemmygrad.ml
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        11
        ·
        edit-2
        1 day ago

        I think a fall in China’s population by ~200 million by 2100 is very reasonable. Some amount of population decrease is already locked in because of the previous years of 1.2 children per woman.

        Here’s an article that forecasts this based on a slow increase from China’s current birth rate of 1.2 per woman to a normal 2.1 per woman, which will result in a population by 2100 of 1.2 billion (200 million lower than China’s current population of 1.4 billion): https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/chinas-population-could-shrink-to-half-by-2100/

        It is best to ignore the catastrophic projections of China’s population falling to 700 million by 2100, which are based on the 1.2 per woman birth rate not changing at all, which is completely unrealistic because China will and already is implementing pro-natalist policies.


        The competition aspect is sort of inevitable with a large population. People always want to be making more money than their neighbor, and if you have a shit ton of neighbors, then you have a lot of people to beat. I don’t really know what can be done about this.