Seeing as how the CPC completely did away with the policy in June of 2021, along with instituting incentives to get people to have more kids, hoping for the population to fall by 200 million is pretty fantastical at this point. Hopefully competition continues to fall naturally with the exponential development China’s still experiencing.
I think a fall in China’s population by ~200 million by 2100 is very reasonable. Some amount of population decrease is already locked in because of the previous years of 1.2 children per woman.
It is best to ignore the catastrophic projections of China’s population falling to 700 million by 2100, which are based on the 1.2 per woman birth rate not changing at all, which is completely unrealistic because China will and already is implementing pro-natalist policies.
The competition aspect is sort of inevitable with a large population. People always want to be making more money than their neighbor, and if you have a shit ton of neighbors, then you have a lot of people to beat. I don’t really know what can be done about this.
Seeing as how the CPC completely did away with the policy in June of 2021, along with instituting incentives to get people to have more kids, hoping for the population to fall by 200 million is pretty fantastical at this point. Hopefully competition continues to fall naturally with the exponential development China’s still experiencing.
I think a fall in China’s population by ~200 million by 2100 is very reasonable. Some amount of population decrease is already locked in because of the previous years of 1.2 children per woman.
Here’s an article that forecasts this based on a slow increase from China’s current birth rate of 1.2 per woman to a normal 2.1 per woman, which will result in a population by 2100 of 1.2 billion (200 million lower than China’s current population of 1.4 billion): https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/chinas-population-could-shrink-to-half-by-2100/
It is best to ignore the catastrophic projections of China’s population falling to 700 million by 2100, which are based on the 1.2 per woman birth rate not changing at all, which is completely unrealistic because China will and already is implementing pro-natalist policies.
The competition aspect is sort of inevitable with a large population. People always want to be making more money than their neighbor, and if you have a shit ton of neighbors, then you have a lot of people to beat. I don’t really know what can be done about this.