Yeah it’s not exactly the end of the world but it’s weird how much the problem is being downplayed on the evening news. People act as if the price of gasoline going up a little is the only consequence they’ll face.
Of course it’s not that bad yet: It took a few weeks before all those tankers not coming out of the strait were missed at their destinations. It takes more time for the reserves to run out, for the refineries to run out of product, more time for their distributors to start missing their deliveries and running out of inventory, and then a little while longer before even the rich countries are forced to consider fuel rationing. It’s yet to be seen how the world will adjust to this if it continues.
It’s not even really about the refineries not getting any oil supply. Refineries are setup to use SPECIFIC oil feedstock chemistries, if you try to substitute that oil for a different type (light sweet vs heavy sour or mid mid, etc) the process either doesn’t work, or it wastes a significant chunk. To convert a refinery to use a different feedstock, it takes a significant amount of engineering time, then you have to effectively SHUT DOWN the whole unit, redo parts of the equipment, then run it back up, test it, and tweak the process variables. Refineries plan this years out and it takes 6+ months to do if nothing goes wrong. Then, they are basically locked into that new feedstock again.
Doing any kind of supply shock like this is dumb for any number of reasons. It’s even dumber when the critical components to rework the refineries is in shorter supply because people keep blowing up the existing equipment. Lead times on some of this stuff is in the 20+ month range duing normal times.
There will not be an easy adjustment, the 10-20% loss in supply figure is misleading at best. This is going to impact everything that uses oil, plastic, fertilizer, lubricants, valves, electronics, etc and its not going to be a 10-20% impact…
I heard that the last ship from the middle east coming to the US with oil would arrive on April 15th so we have yet to experience the shortage of oil just because of how long it takes these ships to travel across the world. People act like everything is fine and here I am stocking up on supplies and I purchasing some bikes for when gas becomes a really big issue. I hope I am wrong and I am just another crazy person but I would rather be somewhat prepared than pretending like everything is fine.
You’ll stay healthy for life if you bike to work everyday its worth it for that reason, but it sucks not having the dedicated bike lanes that other countries tend to have.
Guess people still expect that this problem is going to TACO, the same way that the tariff of other Trump decisions worked out, when this is way over the hand of Trump and the US control
Yeah it’s not exactly the end of the world but it’s weird how much the problem is being downplayed on the evening news. People act as if the price of gasoline going up a little is the only consequence they’ll face.
Of course it’s not that bad yet: It took a few weeks before all those tankers not coming out of the strait were missed at their destinations. It takes more time for the reserves to run out, for the refineries to run out of product, more time for their distributors to start missing their deliveries and running out of inventory, and then a little while longer before even the rich countries are forced to consider fuel rationing. It’s yet to be seen how the world will adjust to this if it continues.
It’s not even really about the refineries not getting any oil supply. Refineries are setup to use SPECIFIC oil feedstock chemistries, if you try to substitute that oil for a different type (light sweet vs heavy sour or mid mid, etc) the process either doesn’t work, or it wastes a significant chunk. To convert a refinery to use a different feedstock, it takes a significant amount of engineering time, then you have to effectively SHUT DOWN the whole unit, redo parts of the equipment, then run it back up, test it, and tweak the process variables. Refineries plan this years out and it takes 6+ months to do if nothing goes wrong. Then, they are basically locked into that new feedstock again.
Doing any kind of supply shock like this is dumb for any number of reasons. It’s even dumber when the critical components to rework the refineries is in shorter supply because people keep blowing up the existing equipment. Lead times on some of this stuff is in the 20+ month range duing normal times.
There will not be an easy adjustment, the 10-20% loss in supply figure is misleading at best. This is going to impact everything that uses oil, plastic, fertilizer, lubricants, valves, electronics, etc and its not going to be a 10-20% impact…
I heard that the last ship from the middle east coming to the US with oil would arrive on April 15th so we have yet to experience the shortage of oil just because of how long it takes these ships to travel across the world. People act like everything is fine and here I am stocking up on supplies and I purchasing some bikes for when gas becomes a really big issue. I hope I am wrong and I am just another crazy person but I would rather be somewhat prepared than pretending like everything is fine.
Ive started training on my bike and biking to work, I aint playing around. Ten mile commute but ill work up to it so I can do it almost every day
You’ll stay healthy for life if you bike to work everyday its worth it for that reason, but it sucks not having the dedicated bike lanes that other countries tend to have.
Yup, thankfully I live in an area with bike paths and trails, and I can take it to work. Its beautiful. But yeah rural America doesnt have any of this
Guess people still expect that this problem is going to TACO, the same way that the tariff of other Trump decisions worked out, when this is way over the hand of Trump and the US control