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Faced with a dwindling number of experienced intelligence agents on the ground, with many expelled after the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia is now resorting to low-level operatives recruited through Telegram or similar social networks to conduct dozens of attempted or successful attacks in Europe, according to court records and security sources. These “disposable agents” have carried out cyberattacks but also riskier actions that included massive fires, incendiary devices destined for cargo planes, vandalism, and influence campaigns targeting the heart of Europe’s democracies- its voters.
“The effect that they need is tension in our societies, to weaken the trust in the decisions of our governments and of course to weaken support to Ukraine”, said the Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys, blaming Russia for these operations. “They run so-called cheaper agents without multi-year training, the ones that they can recruit online or elsewhere, and they have a very fast and effective result on the ground.”
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Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský put a concrete number on Russian attacks on European countries in 2024. “500 suspicious incidents, of which 100 were attributed to the Russian Federation”, he said. “These various attacks, sabotage, cyberattacks, information operations, continue to take place and are increasing in intensity”.
Russian operations in Europe are becoming more frequent and more brazen, according to 20 government, intelligence and military officials and experts from 10 countries […] “We see an increased Russian risk appetite," said NATO’S Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Innovation, Hybrid, and Cyber James Appathurai, “and when I say risk, I mean not risk to them; risk to us, risk to our economies, to the safety of our citizens.”
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[Events include] attacks or plots to carry out sabotage on civilian, military and underwater infrastructure, vandalism, arson, cyberattacks, and influence operations including electoral interference. Some incidents were only known months after they happened, when an arrest or a security report brought them to light.
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“Russia isn’t just focused on Ukraine. We’re holding them back from their ambitions of reestablishing their control in Europe, and they don’t like it,” said NATO’s Appathurai. “I’m absolutely convinced, we are all convinced that these hybrid attacks will continue after the war in Ukraine is over, because they can’t attack us militarily and they don’t intend to. They are frustrated and want to carry out their ambitions in other ways. So we need to buckle down for a long-term problem with Russia, which will include hybrid attacks in our [European] countries.”