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Cake day: September 13th, 2023

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  • This is why The Good Place is my comfort show. Chidi’s monologue both brakes me and puts me back together. Every moment in the finale is a work of art but that scene on the couch, there just aren’t words.

    Every time someone I know passes I watch that whole episode and it helps me find peace.









  • I agree with your take on the old 538 model, but if you read Nate’s new substack it become pretty clear that he’s been ‘captured’. Almost all of his post seem to fairly anti-Harris in their biases and it feels like all of his writings are really meant for one person, that person being the owner of Polymarket who he has a very large consulting contract. What these biases are doing to the Model I don’t know but the new model at 538 which was built from the ground up by other statisticians consistently trends about 10-20% higher odds for Harris taking the election.