woah holy shit a bio?

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Joined 3 年前
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Cake day: 2023年6月30日

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  • There’s nothing unexpected here so far. You’re causing yourself unnecessary anxiety 🙃.

    With trend data or data over time, if you look at a small period of time, the only knowledge you get is limited to that period of time.

    If we look at that small period of time where it behaves differently, we can say an event, independent of other events, caused the change. If we look at historical data, we can likely see that similar events caused similar changes. If we then take the data of the event itself, say the average temperature of the El Niño, and compare it to historical El Niños, we will likely see it is a worse El Niño, and maybe see that they have been worsening over time as well. That becomes evidence of climate change too.



  • Its why I hate being the “smart one” at work and amongst friends and family. The smartest people I know don’t automatically answer every question they get asked or don’t take it upon themselves to find an answer. I have some fucking horrible compulsion to find the correct answer to everything.

    The smartest people I know can stick to their domain. They seem far less stressed. And they are able to be content knowing there are things they don’t know.

    To me, knowing a lot doesnt equate to intelligence in the slightest.

    The more you learn, the more you realize just how much knowledge you lack. And it never stops getting worse. At some point I started realizing there were things I didn’t even understand how I knew them. I’m sure all of you are aware of how disturbing that feels. The inability to provide knowledge of the self.

    I would NEVER give medical or legal, or safety advice outside of the realm of electronics and softwate. I can certainly tell you what I know but I will also tell you that a person with a license and malpractice insurance behind them is necessary to tell you want to do with that knowledge.

    People don’t like that. People don’t like it when they think you are smart and state something “without confidence like that.” They like it even less when they find out your knowledge was sufficient and they “wasted money on a professional.”

    Trump does this shit the same reasons mid level and higher level managers do all their stupid shit. Because people prefer it when you are strictly confident, especially when you are confident about something that would benefit them, completely detached from the reality if it will or won’t.


  • Yep. I didn’t mean to imply something wasn’t happening, but that something isn’t what OP pointed at, and that something is evidence of climate change.

    People need to learn that its a slow decline. It’s disastrous, but it looks like worsening wildfires each year. More tornados in Iowa and Minnesota. Lower crop yields. Beaches getting smaller by inches, ocean front property values declining and insurance rates increasing. More intense variations in weather and more difficultly forecasting.


  • No. This is a sharper momentary dip. Sort of expected with climate change.

    If you look at the summer months for 2025, (January and February for the southern hemisphere) you can see ice sheet area declined far more rapidly rapidly than 2026 did.

    Rates of change, particularly ones that are of more recent data, can be very misleading. Now if the same rate of change continued through the end of August, then it would definitely be anomalous.

    Climate change does not make immediate impacts like this. Climate change makes the trend of the WHOLE line lower, and more volatile. Notice that 2025 and 2026 lines are at the lower end of the graph.

    One (ugly) way to understand this chart better would be the area under the curve for a given year. As 2026 isnt over yet, you cant do this reliably beyond the most recent data point.

    The “big” thing then would be if the result for each year was successively lower.